Archive for May, 2007

May 31, 2007

Thursday, May 31st, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.35% 5.42% 36,715 14.98 2 +1.7006% 952.1
Fixed-Floater 5.76% 5.51% 162,487 14.96 6 -0.2911% 898.5
Floater 4.79% -2.81% 88,032 11.14 3 +0.2836% 1,049.2
Op. Retract 4.79% 3.80% 85,906 2.93 17 -0.2482% 1,024.4
Split-Share 5.01% 4.41% 215,947 3.94 13 -0.2466% 1,043.5
Interest Bearing 6.55% 6.44% 72,642 5.33 5 -0.2872% 1,043.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.26% 4.85% 197,455 8.17 48 -0.1731% 1,028.0
Perpetual-Discount 4.89% 4.93% 642,053 15.64 19 -0.0997% 997.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium (pre-rebalancing) -1.6064% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.10% based on a bid of 24.50 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.C PerpetualPremium -1.5757% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.41% based on a bid of 25.61 and a call 2012-1-5 at 25.00
LBS.PR.A SplitShare -1.5209% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.75% based on a bid of 10.36 and a hardMaturity 2013-11-29 at 10.00.
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.4599% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.59% based on a bid of 27.00 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30 at 25.00.
IGM.PR.A OpRet -1.4105% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.28% based on a bid of 26.56 and a call 2009-7-30 at 26.00.
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -1.4000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.24% (as interest) based on a bid of 9.86 and hardMaturity 2015-3-31 at 10.00.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.2848% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.23% based on a bid of 23.05 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualPremium (pre-rebalancing) -1.1546% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.01% based on a bid of 23.97 and a limitMaturity.
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount (pre-rebalancing) -1.0865% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.30% based on a bid of 22.76 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.B PerpetualPremium (pre-rebalancing) -1.0673% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.90% based on a bid of 24.10 and a limitMaturity.
AL.PR.E Floater +1.0359%  
WN.PR.C PerpetualPremium (pre-rebalancing) +1.5327% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.39% based on a bid of 24.51 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.S Ratchet +3.4803%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BCE.PR.C FixFloat 412,955  
BCE.PR.A FixFloat 333,000 Nesbitt crossed 325,500 at 22.90 for Cash.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat 210,750  
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium (pre-rebalancing) 129,720 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.89% based on a bid of 24.25 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 80,600 Nesbitt crossed 70,000 at 25.40. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.69% based on a bid of 25.40 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00.

There were thirty-nine other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

New Issue : GlobalBanc Advantaged 8, 4.5%, 5.5-Year Retractibles

Thursday, May 31st, 2007

This is an interesting one.

GlobalBanc Advantaged 8 Split Corp. announced today (via CCN Matthews) that:

it has filed and has received a receipt dated May 30, 2007 from the securities regulators of all the Canadian provinces and territories for the final prospectus for its offering of Preferred Shares and Class A Shares, for a total maximum offering size of up to $150 million. The Preferred Securities have been provisionally rated Pfd-2 by DBRS Limited. The offering is scheduled to close on or about June 26, 2007.  The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the shares, subject to fulfillment by the Company of the requirements of the TSX (Class A Shares – GBA; and Preferred Shares – GBA.PR.A).

….
The investment objectives with respect to the Preferred Shares are: (i) to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions that are expected to consist of non-taxable returns of capital and capital gains in the amount of $0.1125 per Preferred Share, representing a yield on the issue price of the Preferred Shares of 4.5% per annum; and (ii) to return $10.00 per Preferred Share at the time of redemption of such Preferred Shares on December 15, 2012. The Preferred Shares have been provisionally rated Pfd-2 by DBRS Limited.

I have not yet decided whether this issue will be included in the HIMIPref™ universe.

Update, 2007-08-12: This issue will not be tracked by HIMIPref™. The TSX reports that there are only 2.7-million shares outstanding, for a total par value of $27-million.

PAY.PR.A to Purchase & Retire 10.8% of Issue

Thursday, May 31st, 2007

This is something both interesting and complicated – it would have to happen at month-end! PAY.PR.A announced today:

the final results of its modified Dutch auction-type substantial issuer bid to repurchase (the “Offer”) up to 300,000 of its preferred shares (TSX: “PAY.PR.A”) which expired at 5:00 p.m. (EST) on May 30, 2007

    Based on the final report provided by the depositary for the Offer, 224,644 preferred shares have been deposited and not withdrawn. Pursuant to the terms of the Offer, HIPAYS determined the purchase price to be $25.90 per preferred share (the “Purchase Price”) to put it in a position to take up the maximum number of preferred shares deposited to the Offer for an aggregate purchase amount of $5,818,279.60.
    All preferred shares properly deposited to the Offer at auction tender prices below the Purchase Price will be purchased at the Purchase Price. Payment to holders of preferred shares tendered and accepted for purchase will be made as soon as practicable, but otherwise in compliance with the Offer.
    The purchased preferred shares represent approximately 10.8% of the preferred shares outstanding as of May 30, 2007. After the purchase, approximately 1,860,752 preferred shares will remain outstanding.

According to the press release that announced the offer:

On July 31, 2008 (the “Termination Date”) the preferred shares will be redeemed for $25.00 and the remaining 15 distributions from the expiry of the Offer to the Termination Date will amount to $1.719. Accordingly, the yield to maturity of a preferred share at $25.50 to the Termination Date is 3.86% and the yield to maturity of a preferred share at $25.90 to the Termination Date is 2.57%.

Now, at first glance, this doesn’t seem to make much sense. Why would the company purchase its own prefs at a premium to par and at a lousy yield-to-maturity? 

I suspect the key may be found in my last comment on this issue:

As far as I can make out from the prospectus, the “Preferred Repayment Portfolio” will be delivered in its entirety to CIBC on the termination date in exchange for the amount due on maturity of the prefs. This is a bit of bad new for the Capital Unit Holders (because it means the current excess value of $3,901,000 will be lost), but the pref holders don’t care!

So I suspect that this is worthwhile for the Capital Unit Holders because they will now capture the excess value … or, at least, a fraction of it! I’m not sure about this, though, so confirmation or denial of this hypothesis is left as an exercise for the student.

SBN.PR.A Issues Additional Shares

Thursday, May 31st, 2007

S Split Corp announced today:

that it has completed an issuance of additional Shares at prices of $15.00 per Class A Share and $10.00 per Preferred Share for additional gross proceeds of $6.25 million pursuant to the exercise of the over-allotment option granted to the Company’s agents in its recently completed initial public offering. All together, the Company has raised total gross proceeds of $118.75 million under the offering. The Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols SBN and SBN.PR.A, respectively.

SBN.PR.A commenced trading May 17.

May 30, 2007

Wednesday, May 30th, 2007

Scheduling problems related to month-end mean I’m going to have to delay production of the daily Market Action report until tomorrow … sorry!

HIMIPref™ has been updated, but that’s all I’m going to get done tonight. Anecdotal evidence only … but I saw some definite signs of Retail Panic today. Some PWF.PR.I traded at 25.49? Ridiculous.

Update, 2007-5-31:

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.41% 5.51% 37,700 14.92 2 -2.8671% 936.2
Fixed-Floater 5.75% 5.43% 153,772 15.00 6 -0.5095% 901.1
Floater 4.81% -0.03% 82,883 5.61 3 -0.0400% 1,046.3
Op. Retract 4.78% 3.68% 85,176 2.94 17 -0.1094% 1,027.0
Split-Share 5.00% 4.32% 216,581 3.82 13 -0.0038% 1,046.1
Interest Bearing 6.53% 6.34% 72,397 5.33 5 +0.3799% 1,046.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.25% 4.94% 193,433 8.20 48 -0.3872% 1,029.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.89% 4.92% 649,289 15.65 19 -1.0231% 998.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.S Ratchet -5.8952%  
GWO.PR.H PerpetualPremium (for now!) -3.1621%  
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -3.0216%  
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount -2.5578%  
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount -2.1684%  
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -2.0627%  
WN.PR.D PerpetualPremium (for now!) -2.0276%  
GWO.PR.G PerpetualPremium -2.0270%  
WN.PR.C PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.9496%  
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -1.8803%  
PWF.PR.I PerpetualPremium -1.8667%  
WN.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.6667%  
CIU.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.6427%  
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.4768%  
BCE.PR.C FixFloat -1.2500%  
BCE.PR.A FixFloat -1.2148%  
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.1740%  
GWO.PR.E SplitShare -1.0062%  
BSD.PR.A Interest +1.2146%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BBD.PR.D Scraps (would be FixFloat, but there are credit concerns) 756,568  
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium (for now!) 97,100  
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 76,755  
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 63,520  
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount 60,900  
CM.PR.P PerpetualPremium 57,650  

There were forty-seven other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Sorry this update was so late! But now I must begin working on May 31!

May 29, 2007

Wednesday, May 30th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.23% 5.29% 38,271 15.20 2 +0.3434% 963.8
Fixed-Floater 5.72% 5.40% 153,589 15.12 6 -0.1473% 905.7
Floater 4.80% -0.03% 80,956 5.62 3 +0.2412% 1,046.7
Op. Retract 4.77% 3.65% 85,023 2.94 17 +0.0498% 1,028.1
Split-Share 5.00% 4.36% 220,392 3.95 13 -0.1239% 1,046.1
Interest Bearing 6.55% 6.45% 70,572 5.33 5 +0.0006% 1,042.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.22% 4.83% 189,803 8.04 48 -0.3053% 1,033.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.87% 4.87% 649,224 15.73 19 -0.7814% 1,009.0
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -2.7473% New 52-week low of 23.10 today … and the closing bid was below this figure! Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.86% based on a bid of 23.01 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -2.0903% New 52-week low of 23.27 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.87% based on a bid of 23.42 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.8182% New 52-week low of 24.03 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.88% based on a bid of 24.30 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.7822% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.88% based on a bid of 24.80 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.6000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.87% based on a bid of 24.60 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.5152% New 52-week low of 23.30 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.83% based on a bid of 23.40 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.5000% New 52-week low of 23.65 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.80% based on a bid of 23.64 and a limitMaturity.
CU.PR.B PerpetualPremium -1.4857% New 52-week low of 25.85 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.25% based on a bid of 25.86 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -1.4831% New 52-week low of 23.15 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.89% based on a bid of 23.25 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.4831% New 52-week low of 23.25 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.86% based on a bid of 23.25 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.4553% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.08% based on a bid of 23.70 and a limitMaturity.
WN.PR.A PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.3708% New low of 24.64 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.89% based on a bid of 24.64 and a limitMaturity. A recent downgrade.
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.1083% New low of 22.55 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.87% based on a bid of 23.20 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.0727% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.01% based on a bid of 24.90 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.0372% New 52-week low of 22.90 today. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.85% based on a bid of 22.90 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualPremium +1.1182% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.62% based on a bid of 25.30 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.S Ratchet +1.3167% Exchange/Reset date is 2011-11-1 (exchanges with BCE.PR.T, which pays 4.502% of par until then). Closed at 22.90-38, 2×5, on zero volume. The Ts closed at 21.55-05, 10×1, on zero volume.
IGM.PR.A OpRet +1.3650% Making up for yesterday’s losses. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.34% based on a bid of 27.07 and a call 2009-7-30 at 26.00.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat +1.4735% Partial recovery from yesterday’s losses, but there was a new 52-week low of 20.05 anyway. Exchange/Reset date is 2010-12-1 (exchanges with series ‘Q’, not issued); until then, pays 4.54% of par. Closed at 20.66-15, 1×1.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +2.8112% Roaring back from yesterday’s losses, but set a new 52-week low of 24.00 anyway. Closed at 24.49-63, 20×5, so I bet the low seller feels silly. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.68% based on a bid of 24.49 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BBD.PR.D Scraps (would be FixFloat, but there are credit concerns) 187,480 Nesbitt crossed 15,000 at 18.95. Exchange/Reset date is 2007-8-1 – see the pairs analysis. The Ds closed at 18.90-95, 60×15; the Bs closed at 19.45-60.
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 120,940 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.69% based on a bid of 25.39 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00.
SLF.PR.B PerpetualPremium (for now!) 84,265 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.87% based on a bid of 24.60 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualPremium (for now!) 72,899 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.88% based on a bid of 24.80 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualPremium 68,898 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.62% based on a bid of 25.30 and a call 2014-10-30 at 25.00. There is some uncertainty as to what GWO will be doing in the capital markets in the near future.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualPremium (for now!) 38,050 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.83% based on a bid of 23.40 and a limitMaturity.

There were thirty-four other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

The prospectus for the Co-operators new issue is now on SEDAR and the issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ universe on a preIssue basis. It doesn’t look pretty!

How Low Can They Go?

Tuesday, May 29th, 2007

It’s been quite the day of eMails for me! In addition to the relatively technical questions about PrefLetter, I received one that asked:

Can you tell me if there is a rule of thumb in determining rates companies offer for new preferred offerings as it relates to the BOC key rate?

In a word: No.

When a company thinks it might wish to offer preferreds, they contact their Corporate Finance guys at the dealers and ask them where they think they might sell a deal. After looking at comparables, thinking about the tone of the market, talking to the people on the front lines who will actually be selling the deal, all that kind of thing, Corporate Finance comes up with a guess and then the company decides if it makes sense for them.

That being said, there is usually some consistency – look at all the recent Pfd-1 perpetuals done lately with a 4.5% coupon, for example.

At some point, I’m going to get out my records and write an article about the historical trend of perpetual issuance, comparing the grossed-up interest rate equivalent with long Canadas – which is as close to the standard as exists.

In 2005, the new issue spread (according to some third party information I have) varied in a range of Canadas +140bp to Canadas +200bp.

In 2006, it was more like Canadas +200 to Canadas +250.

In 2007 … well, let’s see. High quality perps have been going at 4.50% … use 1.4x to gross that up, that’s 6.30% interest-equivalent. Long Canadas spent the first quarter in the 4.10%-4.30% range, mostly, so that’s a spread of Canadas +200 to Canadas +220, roughly in line with 2006.

Long Canadas are – taking today’s sell-off into account – trading in the 4.45% area, so we’ll say that perpetual prefs should be in the 6.55% interest-equivalent area, which is the 4.68% dividend area, which is more or less where they actually are, as of last night.

The major weaknesses of this back-of-the-envelope calculation are:

  • Spreads could change due to perceived corporate weakness, particularly in the banking sector. They certainly changed in 2005/06!
  • Ranges of the spreads are very large: 50bp!
  • Those are new issue spreads I’m talking about. Logically, spreads on (deep) discount perpetuals should be smaller, as there is the opportunity to make a significant capital gain before your have to worry about the potential of a call.
  • Preferreds are dominated by retail, which is prone to panic.

But, all that being said … let’s make a deal: You guess where long Canadas are going to be, and I’ll guess where perpetuals are going to be!

PrefLetter : Questions from a Subscriber

Tuesday, May 29th, 2007

I have received an eMail with some questions of sufficient generality that I thought I would publish it – suitably redacted, of course!

 

I now understand YTW and the concept of pseudo convexity, but not the application of pseudo convexity e.g. in your current recommendations, which is more “bond like”, a negative 12.00 (###.##.##) or a positive 6.00 (###.##.#)?  Given my interest rate view, I should stay away from more bond like.

A “normal bond”, by which I mean a fixed-income instrument with no embedded options, will always have a positive convexity, which will vary (roughly speaking) as the square of the duration.

[One implication of this relationship is that one may use convexity as a measure of the “barbelledness” of a bond portfolio; for instance, an extremely barbelled portfolio comprised of 3-month treasury bills and 30-year bonds will have a greater convexity than an extremely bulletted portfolio comprised solely of 10-year bonds even though both portfolios have exactly the same weighted average duration.

Classical fixed-income mathematics states that a more convex portfolio will always outperform a less convex portfolio that has the same yield, regardless of the direction of a change in interest rates; this is because classical fixed income mathematics assumes that all changes to the yield curve will be parallel. In fact, (given equal durations, different convexities) convexity (= barbelledness) helps when the curve is flattening, hurts when it is steepening. When it is humping (by which I mean the middle is increasing in yield by more than the average of the two endpoints – what did you think I meant?) convexity helps; when de-humping (I will admit that I’ve never used this term before, although I have used “humpedness”) convexity hurts.

However, classical fixed income mathematics has led to one of the more truly dumb slogans ever used in portfolio management: the benter the better. This phrase picks up from looking at plots of duration vs. price; since (in classical fixed-income mathematics with perfectly normal bonds) the curvature of this plot works in the holder’s favour so some believe that more bending = more value.

End of rant, back to the main question.]

Convexity is of very little value in quantitative fixed income analysis, but has some use as a qualitative measure (as long as you don’t take it too seriously). Pseudo-Convexity, used in HIMIPref™, results from a mathematical calculation that seeks to accomplish the same thing while accounting for embedded options. It is a Good Thing for pseudoConvexity to be positive (all else being equal, which is never the case) because

  • Pseudo-Convexity may be interpreted as a measure of how “bond-like” the instrument is; bonds have positive convexity (and pseudo-convexity, of course)
  • It is good for preferred shares to be bond-like, because the only ways in which they differ from regular bonds are bad for the holder

When confronted by the choice between two instruments that differ in pseudo-convexity, you should ensure that you are being paid (higher expected total return) for the risks you are incurring by taking a lower convexity [to the extent that this lower convexity is due to embedded options, not simply lower duration. Virtually all differences in pseudoConvexity will be due to embedded options].

I understand the different types of pref share, but I am not clear as to how to think about that i.e. advantages/disadvantages of different types per se.

This is a big, big question. All I can really do is point you to the various articles I have written, specifically those referenced on the PrefLetter page introducing these types.

After that I am trying to turn your recommendations into practical action e.g. one of your current recommendations is ###.##.#; I own that, it is down 5.2% since I purchased (which is likely one of the reasons you are recommending it!), but, should I add to that position at this price?  I suppose that specific question resolves itself into the more general one of buy, sell, hold-at given purchase price ranges.  So, I know how to buy from your letter, but not how to sell.  I imagine your answer may be to buy your managed fund, which I may well consider, but couldn’t you turn your letter into a model portfolio, or is that the purpose of your fund?  Maybe I should be buying that as opposed to the newsletter!  My portfolio of prefs has actually done well over the couple of years I have held it but has started to head South over the last Qtr in response to inflation/interest.  I believe in prefs as a sensible part of a yield portfolio, but the prudent management is beginning to seem complex.  I own 14 different prefs of which 5 are positive, 9 are now negative by generally small amounts, and I’m fumbling as I am pretty sure further rate increases are ahead. ( I understand your view on interest rate forecasting!)

This is another big, big question. I will be writing an article shortly for Canadian Moneysaver regarding portfolio construction that I hope will be found somewhat helpful.

I don’t think you will ever see a “Model Portfolio”, labelled as such, coming from me. Model Portfolios are tools of the devil.

Assume, for instance, that you are following a model portfolio and have achieved 100% congruence with the recommendations. Then, for good reasons or bad, the model portfolio changes. In order to maintain congruence, the follower must therefore execute the required swap irrespective of price.

Those last three words are the dealbreaker, particularly in fixed income portfolio management. I might be very happy to sell X and buy Y if I can take out twenty cents, but consider it the worst trade ever proposed if I have to trade flat.

Even if I say on Day 1 that a take-out of twenty cents is a great trade, there’s no guarantee that on Day 2 I’ll say the same thing. The absolute prices may have changed (either due to normal fluctuations, or even – trivially – because of a dividend), which will change all the yields and option-exercise probabilities. Even if the prices have not changed, a change in the rest of the yield curve might make a big difference [for example, say the trade is from a short-term retractible into a perpetual discount. PerpetualDiscounts have dropped a lot in the past month; I want more yield pick-up today than I did three weeks ago before I’ll consider the trade.

I’m sure this all sounds evasive, and don’t be afraid to tell me so in the comments. But the simple fact is, fixed income portfolio management, when done professionally, is a complicated thing. And so, yes, I think that in many cases clients will be better off purchasing my fund. The objective of PrefLetter is to provide retail investors – who don’t want to give up control and who don’t want to pay fees – and their advisors with a short-list of buy-and-hold recommendations for each preferred share type.

When considering a sale … well, look at what you have. First, in terms of overall asset-class selection and how well it reflects what you are attempting to accomplish with the portfolio. Second, in terms of potential swaps. Say you hold X and I’m recommending Y, in the same class. Look at the yield-to-worst of the two instruments, their terms and their credits; if Y looks better at prices where you can execute, then by all means go for it! You might not be doing optimal trading, but if, say, you can come up with a good rationale for why Y is better than X (credit, interest rate protection, yield), after commission & taxes, for every trade, I suggest you’ll be doing all right.

May 28, 2007

Tuesday, May 29th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.20% 5.30% 38,584 15.16 2 +0.1317% 960.5
Fixed-Floater 5.71% 5.34% 154,302 15.16 6 -0.2559% 907.1
Floater 4.81% 2.02% 81,079 11.18 3 +0.0536% 1,044.2
Op. Retract 4.77% 3.67% 84,217 2.72 17 -0.1737% 1,027.6
Split-Share 4.99% 4.34% 221,058 3.82 13 -0.0564% 1,047.4
Interest Bearing 6.54% 6.47% 70,403 5.33 5 +0.0794% 1,042.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.20% 4.62% 186,747 6.98 48 -0.2528% 1,037.0
Perpetual-Discount 4.79% 4.83% 658,128 15.80 19 -0.5011% 1,016.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.R FixFloat -3.2779% Exchange/Reset date is 2010-12-1 (exchanges with series ‘Q’, not issued); until then, pays 4.54% of par. After the heavy volume on May 25, the coup de grace was a bit of an anti-climax: a sale of 1,500 shares by Nesbitt just before the bell took the price from 20.58 to 20.36. Closed at 20.36-74, 3×1.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.8330% A morning sale by Nesbitt of 2,400 shares seems to have taken out the bid (prices in four tranches started at 24.44 and finished at 24.05) that only bounced back a little. Closed at 24.10-49, 10×5. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.83% based on a bid of 24.10 and a limitMaturity.
IGM.PR.A OpRet -1.2409% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.00% based on a bid of 27.06 and a call 2009-7-30 at 26.00.
ACO.PR.A OpRet -1.0989% Traded as low as 26.77; closed at 27.00-30, 20×10. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.01% based on a bid of 27.00 and a call 2008-12-31 at 26.00.
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.0961% Traded as low as 23.25, a new 52-week low. Closed at 23.46-60, 3×5. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.82% based on a bid of 23.46 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.B PerpetualPremium -1.0942% Traded as low as 25.16, a new 52-week low. Closed at 25.31-38, 43×3. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.19% based on a bid of 25.31 and a call 2012-12-28 at 25.00.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualPremium (for now!) -1.0142% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.92% based on a bid of 24.40 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.I FixFloat +1.0779% Exchange/Reset date is 2011-8-1 (Exchanges with series ‘AJ’, not issued); until then, pays 4.65% of par.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater 202,400 National Bank crossed 200,000 at 24.90.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 147,315 Nesbitt crossed 83,300 at 23.90. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.79% based on a bid of 23.80 and a limitMaturity. There’s still some uncertainty about GWO’s capital market plans, and the recent downdraft doesn’t help.
GWO.PR.H PerpetualPremium 76,510 Nesbitt crossed 11,100 at 25.32. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.80% based on a bid of 25.32 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 52,670 RBC crossed 11,500 at 23.60 to end the day; four other crosses totalling 17,500 all at 23.60 preceded this. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.84% based on a bid of 23.44 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 36,990 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.75% based on a bid of 23.76 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-three other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

May 25, 2007

Saturday, May 26th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.18% 5.28% 40,243 15.21 2 0.0000% 959.2
Fixed-Floater 5.69% 5.31% 154,863 15.26 6 -0.2682% 909.4
Floater 4.82% 2.83% 79,977 11.20 3 +0.2956% 1,043.6
Op. Retract 4.76% 3.53% 83,894 2.49 17 -0.0688% 1,029.4
Split-Share 4.98% 4.30% 223,731 3.96 12 -0.0498% 1,048.0
Interest Bearing 6.54% 6.46% 70,777 5.26 5 -0.0316% 1,042.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.19% 4.60% 185,917 6.65 48 0.0681% 1,039.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.77% 4.80% 665,859 15.85 19 -0.4684% 1,022.0
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.R FixFloat -1.6355% On heavy volume (see below), but the big trade was a 21.39 and the close was 21.05-49, 15×5, so the volume can’t be blamed. Exchange/Reset date is 2010-12-1 (exchanges with series ‘Q’, not issued); until then, pays 4.54% of par.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.6142% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.75% based on a bid of 23.77 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.E OpRet -1.5004% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.41% based on a bid of 26.26 and a call 2009-4-30 at 25.50. There are interesting things happening at GWO … but they’re not public just yet.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -1.0707% A sell of 2,600 shares by RBC in five tranches starting at 3:56pm at 23.28 and ending at 3:57pm at 23.10 took the price down a bit. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.81% based on a bid of 23.10 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount -1.0373% On heavy volume (see below), which doesn’t appear to have affected the price directly. See above for link to GWO’s suspended animation. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.78% based on a bid of 23.85 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.A PerpetualPremium (for now!) +1.0514% On heavy volume (see below) which appears to have propped up the price. Closed at 24.99-00, 100×20. The last trade was a Scotia cross of 300,000 at 24.99; the penultimate trade was for 500 shares at 24.71. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.71% based on a bid of 24.99 and a call 2014-4-30 at 25.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BCE.PR.C FixFloat 2,010,064 Wow! Scotia crossed 2,000,000 at 23.35. Exchange/Reset date is 2008-3-1 (Exchanges with series ‘AD’, not issued); Until then pays 5.54% of par.
CM.PR.P PerpetualPremium 844,330 Scotia crossed 540,000 at 26.18, then 300,000 at 26.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.72% based on a bid of 26.08 and a call 2012-11-28 at 25.00.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat 800,500 Scotia crossed 800,000 at 21.39. Exchange/Reset date is 2010-12-1 (Exchanges with series ‘Q’, not issued); until then, pays 4.54% of par.
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 679,488 Scotia crossed 266,300 at 25.65, then 400,000 at 25.70. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.49% based on a bid of 25.70 and a call 2014-11-30 at 25.00.
NA.PR.K PerpetualPremium 586,715 Scotia crossed 360,000 at 26.23, then another 225,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.88% based on a bid of 26.15 and a call 2012-6-14 at 25.00.
BCE.PR.A FixFloat 558,287 Scotia crossed 550,000 at 23.16. Exchange/Reset date is 2007-9-1 (Exchanges with series ‘AB’, not issued); until then pays 5.03% of par.
CM.PR.E PerpetualPremium 541,392 Scotia crossed 540,000 at 26.10. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.82% based on a bid of 26.08 and a call 2012-11-30 at 25.00.
CM.PR.I PerpetualPremium (for now!) 473,001 Scotia crossed 453,600 at 24.95. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.75% based on a bid of 24.95 and a limitMaturity.
CU.PR.A PerpetualPremium 461,653 Scotia crossed 270,000 at 25.88, then 190,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.03% based on a bid of 25.83 and a call 2012-3-31 at 25.00.
CM.PR.D PerpetualPremium 452,510 Scotia crossed 450,000 at 25.96. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.06% based on a bid of 25.90 and a call 2012-5-30 at 25.00.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat 450,718 Scotia crossed 450,000 at 22.57. Exchange/Reset Date is 2007-12-1 (Exchanges with BCE.PR.Y); until then, pays 5.319% of par. Closed at 22.58-89, 2×6; the Ys closed at 22.50-99, 6×4.
SLF.PR.A PerpetualPremium (for now!) 408,698 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 24.99, then 300,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.71% based on a bid of 24.99 and a call 2014-4-30 at 25.00.
ENB.PR.A PerpetualPremium 328,227 Scotia crossed 225,000 at 25.09, then 100,000 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.22% based on a bid of 25.02 and a call 2008-1-1 at 25.00.
HSB.PR.C PerpetualPremium 288,179 Scotia crossed 275,000 at 26.39. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.37% based on a bid of 26.35 and a call 2014-7-30 at 25.00.
CU.PR.B PerpetualPremium 272,053 Scotia crossed 270,000 at 26.18. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.96% based on a bid of 26.16 and a call 2011-7-1 at 25.25.
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium 231,025 Scotia crossed 225,000 at 26.11. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.82% based on a bid of 26.01 and a call 2014-5-31 at 25.00.
NSI.PR.D Scraps (Would be OpRet, but there are volume concerns … but not today, there aren’t!) 225,300 Scotia crossed 225,000 at 29.35. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.13% based on a bid of 28.35 and a call 2015-11-14 at 25.00.
TCA.PR.X PerpetualPremium 183,001 Scotia crossed 180,000 at 52.35. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.92% based on a bid of 52.15 and a call 2013-11-14 at 50.00.
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 164,810 See elsewhere in this post for a link to the GWO uncertainty summary. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.78% based on a bid of 23.85 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualPremium 142,001 Scotia crossed 140,000 at 26.44. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.63% based on a bid of 26.11 and a call 2013-11-16 at 25.00.
POW.PR.B PerpetualPremium 105,040 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 25.65. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.84% based on a bid of 25.59 and a call 2010-12-28 at 25.00.
TCA.PR.Y PerpetualPremium 102,701 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 52.45. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.86% based on a bid of 52.41 and a call 2014-4-4 at 50.00.
PWF.PR.F PerpetualPremium 101,550 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 25.50. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.03% based on a bid of 25.29 and a call 2010-12-30 at 25.00. That’s not too shabby for a Pfd-1(low) with some interest rate protection, despite the GWO uncertainty.
HSB.PR.D PerpetualPremium 101,150 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 26.25. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.39% based on a bid of 26.21 and a call 2015-1-30 at 25.00.

There were twenty-one other $25-equivalent index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Well, the Scotia guy will be enjoying a nice weekend! We’ll just have to hope he didn’t exceed the allowable bonus for his grade, or management will be tempted to destroy his career (it’s cheaper, you know).