Archive for August, 2011

August 25, 2011

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Only four months until Christmas!

Oh, those naughty European speculators! No matter how often they’re told everything is fine, they keep panicking!

Stocks retreated as panic selling pushed Germany’s DAX Index (DAX) down 4 percent in 15 minutes amid speculation that Germany’s public finances are deteriorating and that regulators may impose restrictions on the market. The dollar and Treasuries advanced, while oil fell and Bank of America Corp. shares surged.

There was concern Germany’s debt rating would be reduced, said Walter Todd, the chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Inc. in Greenwood, South Carolina. CNBC reported that S&P, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings all affirmed their ratings.

Investors also speculated that Germany would impose a short-selling ban, said Ryan Larson, head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management Inc. in Chicago. German regulator BaFin has “all the regulation in place” regarding short selling in equities, press officer Dominika Kula said, in response to a question on whether the agency may ban the practice.

I propose that anybody wishing to sell a stock should submit a form in triplicate to the regulators, who will ensure that the decision has been made in accordance with the required process. That’ll fix those pesky speculators!
On cue:

French, Italian and Spanish stock- market regulators extended temporary bans on short selling introduced this month in a bid to stem market volatility.

Spain and Italy extended their bans through Sept. 30, regulators in both countries said in a statement. France’s Autorite des Marches Financiers said its ban could last as long as Nov. 11. The “objective” is to lift the temporary ban on short-selling of financial stocks “as soon as market conditions allow,” Spain’s CNMV market regulator said.

YLO took a break on its MTN buyback today, with no filings. However, it appears that they continued buying YLO.PR.B, YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D on the exchange through their Normal Course Issuer Bid.

DBRS confirmed Toronto at AA:

DBRS has today confirmed the ratings of the debentures issued by the City of Toronto (the City) at AA. The trends remain Stable, supported by the City’s relatively wealthy tax base and strong resolve in restraining spending and finding permanent solutions to eliminate the budget gap. However, debt remains under considerable pressure as a result of heavy capital spending, which is eroding financial flexibility and could affect the City’s rating if increases are not contained.

DBRS commends management for the thorough review underway, which is probably the most extensive cost-containment effort undertaken by the City in recent memory. However, it remains unclear whether Council will approve the full range of measures necessary to protect fiscal sustainability. Significant concerns also remain with respect to the rising tax-supported debt burden, which stood at a moderate $964 per capita at December 31, 2010, but is set to grow by more than 50% to approximately $1,550 per capita by 2014 due to capital investments. While still manageable, the projected debt peak is up notably from the forecasts available at the time of last year’s rating review and is expected to consume a significant portion of the remaining flexibility within the current rating category. Since the capital plan excludes more than $8 billion in transit needs, the risk of further sizeable revisions to debt projections and their potentially adverse effect on the rating remains material.

I received notice today that a neighbor is seeking a zoning variance. It would appear that supporting documents are not filed electronically and are not available on the Internet. I have get to the York Civic Centre and ask a bureaucrat if I can look at them. Hymas Bonehead Rating Service confirms Toronto at AAAA++.

The Canadian preferred share market pulled back today, with PerpetualDiscounts down 13bp, FixedResets off 10bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 26bp. Good volatility – albeit highly skewed to the negatives! – and volume was merely average, although several issues traded more than 100,000 shares.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5241 % 2,137.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5241 % 3,214.0
Floater 2.84 % 2.54 % 27,520 20.96 4 -0.5241 % 2,307.4
OpRet 4.89 % 2.09 % 58,766 0.58 9 0.1034 % 2,443.6
SplitShare 5.38 % 0.95 % 60,686 0.51 4 -0.2902 % 2,493.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1034 % 2,234.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.67 % 5.02 % 128,728 1.14 14 0.0565 % 2,103.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.46 % 99,653 14.63 16 -0.1280 % 2,232.1
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.17 % 208,063 2.68 60 -0.1009 % 2,319.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.07 % 4.70 % 261,784 7.96 46 -0.2614 % 2,182.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible -2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 22.79
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 15.70
Evaluated at bid price : 15.70
Bid-YTW : 3.37 %
BNA.PR.E SplitShare -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 6.67 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 23.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-09-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 225,954 Nesbitt crossed 108,200 at 21.80; Desjardins crossed 101,500 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.79
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium 124,575 RBC crossed blocks of 70,000 and 21,800 at 25.05; then another block of 21,800 at 25.06.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 24.77
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
CM.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 113,495 TD crossed blocks of 49,600 and 50,000, both at 25.04.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 112,951 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 3.26 %
BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 111,512 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.00; Desjardins crossed 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.83
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 75,300 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 18,000, both at 26.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.92
Bid-YTW : 2.09 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 26.10 – 27.18
Spot Rate : 1.0800
Average : 0.6021

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-09-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %

IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.26 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.5124

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.90 – 24.34
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2816

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 23.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %

BAM.PR.J OpRet Quote: 25.89 – 26.44
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.4013

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.89
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

RY.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 27.15 – 27.48
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2135

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.15
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.32 – 23.99
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5587

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-25
Maturity Price : 22.90
Evaluated at bid price : 23.32
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

New Issue: BPO FixedReset 5.10%+348

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Brookfield Office Properties has announced:

that it has agreed to issue to a syndicate of underwriters led by RBC Capital Markets, CIBC, Scotia Capital Inc. and TD Securities Inc., for distribution to the public, eight million Class AAA Preferred Shares, Series R. The Preferred Shares, Series R will be issued at a price of C$25.00 per share, for aggregate proceeds of C$200 million. Holders of the Preferred Shares, Series R will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 5.10% annually for the initial 5-year period ending September 30, 2016. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.48%.

Holders of Preferred Shares, Series R will have the right, at their option, to convert their shares into cumulative Preferred Shares, Series S, subject to certain conditions, on September 30, 2016 and on September 30 every five years thereafter. Holders of Preferred Shares, Series S will be entitled to receive cumulative quarterly floating dividends at a rate equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 3.48%.

Brookfield Office Properties has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part anytime up to two business days prior to closing, to purchase an additional two million Preferred Shares, Series R at the same offering price. Should the option be fully exercised, the total gross proceeds of the financing will be C$250 million.

The Preferred Shares, Series R will be offered by way of a prospectus supplement to the short-form base shelf prospectus of Brookfield Office Properties dated December 15, 2009. The prospectus supplement will be filed with securities regulatory authorities in all provinces of Canada.

The net proceeds of the issue will be added to the general funds of Brookfield Office Properties and be used for general corporate purposes, including, but not limited to, the repayment or refinancing of debt, acquisitions, capital expenditures and working capital needs. The offering is expected to close on or about September 2, 2011.

Update, 2011-8-26: P-3(high) from S&P:

  • We assigned our ‘BB+’ global scale rating and our ‘P-3 (High)’ Canadian national scale rating to Brookfield Office Properties Inc.’s new 5.1% C$200 million series R preferred share issue.
  • The preferred shares will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
  • Our ratings on Brookfield acknowledge its good-quality office portfolio, long-term leases, and in-place rents that are, on average, below current market rents.

August 24, 2011

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Moody’s downgraded Japan:

Japan’s debt rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited “weak” prospects for economic growth that will make it difficult for the government to rein in the world’s largest public debt burden.

Moody’s cut the grade one step to Aa3, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement today. Rebuilding costs from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, along with continuing efforts to contain the Fukushima nuclear crisis, may make it hard for officials to meet their borrowing target this year, it said.

More joy from US housing:

Home prices in the U.S. fell 5.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since 2009, as foreclosures added to the inventory of properties for sale.

Prices dropped 0.6 percent from the prior three months, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in a report from Washington. In June, prices retreated 4.3 percent from a year earlier, while increasing 0.9 percent from the previous month.

The U.S. inventory of homes for sale averaged 3.7 million during the second quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2010, data from the National Association of Realtors show. The mortgages on 6.5 million U.S. homes had late payments or were in foreclosure in June, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida.

It’s all the banks fault! Banks are evil! Banks should show forebearance, the way the neighbors would!

Members of the Vintage East Condominium Association in Miami Beach got tired of waiting for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) to foreclose on unit 9, so they sued the bank in February to take control of the property.

In June, more than four years after the owner stopped making payments, a judge ruled that JPMorgan lost its claim to the $144,000 mortgage. The apartment is now on the market for $87,500, and the association may stave off insolvency with proceeds from the sale and a new owner who pays monthly dues, said Jane Losson, a board member at the complex.

Financially troubled condo associations are taking banks to court as foreclosure delays enable delinquent homeowners to stay in their buildings for years, often without paying dues that keep boards running. The groups start by pressuring lenders to speed up home seizures and take over payment of the monthly fees. In extreme situations, like the Vintage East case, associations may force banks to give up rights to the property.

The bank delays have left homes in the delinquency process longer. U.S. homeowners facing foreclosure averaged 587 days without making a mortgage payment in June, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS), a real estate information company in Jacksonville, Florida.

In Florida, where 14 percent of homes with a mortgage have a foreclosure notice, the average delinquent borrower hadn’t made a payment for 719 days, or almost two years, LPS data show.

What a surprise! European credit markets are sick:

Investors are demanding a yield of 42 per cent to buy Greek two year notes amid concern that bailouts won’t work.

In the corporate credit markets, huge financial institutions aren’t able to borrow for longer terms such as five years. There’s no credible market for their bonds, strategists say, but even guesses at the prices show interest rates that investors would demand from banks mean there’s no way they would borrow.

This is having a few knock-on effects:

UBS AG (UBSN)’s decision to cut 5 percent of its workforce brings to more than 40,000 the number of jobs cut by European banks in the past month as the region’s worsening sovereign debt crisis crimps trading revenue.

UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, said yesterday it will eliminate 3,500 jobs, mainly from its investment bank. It follows HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), which announced 30,000 cuts on Aug. 1, Barclays Plc (BARC), which is cutting headcount by 3,000, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), which is eliminating 2,000 posts. Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) announced 2,000 reductions on July 28.

European banks are slashing jobs this year six times faster than their U.S. peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…

I’m not the only one nervous about the ECB buying bad credits:

“In the long term, this can’t be good, and therefore should be tolerated at best for a short period of time,” Mr. Wulff said in the English text of his remarks, which were delivered in German. “The guardians of the currency, too, must quickly find their way back to the agreed principles. I regard the huge buy-up of government bonds of individual states by the European Central Bank as legally questionable.”

Mr. Wulff’s views are reflective more of the mood of the rank-and-file of Germany coalition government than of the government itself. German Chancellor Angel Merkel said in the eastern German city of Mageburg Wednesday that she would vigorously fight the breakup of the currency bloc.

The yield on two-year Greek debt surged to a record Wednesday, as investors demanded interest of more than 44 per cent to buy the security. Faith in the latest European effort to rescue Greece is waning as several of its euro-area partners demand collateral in return for aid payments. Greece earlier sent Finland cash to secure the Nordic country’s contribution to the pan-European bailout plan.

You win some, you lose some:

John Paulson, the billionaire who is betting on an economic recovery by the end of 2012, has lost about 14 percent this month on a merger arbitrage hedge fund, according to an investor.

The Paulson Partners Enhanced fund declined 11 percent this year through Aug. 19, said the investor, who asked not to be named because the information is private. The fund had been up 2.9 percent this year through Aug. 4.

Paulson’s merger-fund losses add to the declines his New York-based firm, Paulson & Co., has suffered on other strategies. His largest hedge fund, Paulson Advantage Plus, dropped 22 percent this month through Aug. 19, bringing its 2011 loss to 39 percent, the investor said.

I wonder how the Disadvantage Minus fund did!

DBRS confirmed AER.PR.A at Pfd-3.

S&P downgraded Sino-Forest yesterday:

  • We believe the delay in the findings of an independent committee’s investigation into fraud allegations is negative for Sino-Forest’s credit profile.
  • In addition, the company’s operating profit declined in the most recently reported financial quarter.
  • We are therefore lowering the corporate credit rating on Sino-Forest and the issue rating on its senior unsecured notes and convertible bonds to ‘B’ from ‘B+’.
  • We have kept all the ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications. We may withdraw or suspend the ratings if we believe information risk is too high, such as the company delays its results announcement for the third quarter of 2011 or the investigation is extended again.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 20bp, FixedResets gaining 12bp and DeemedRetractibles up 17bp. Good volatility, with the Performance Highlights table comprised completely of winners. Volume was average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.45%, equivalent to about 7.08% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 4.95%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 210bp, a tightening from the 225bp reported August 17 as the yields converged slightly.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0672 % 2,148.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0672 % 3,231.0
Floater 2.82 % 2.54 % 27,906 20.95 4 0.0672 % 2,319.6
OpRet 4.89 % 2.20 % 55,343 0.58 9 0.0561 % 2,441.0
SplitShare 5.36 % 0.95 % 60,860 0.51 4 0.8570 % 2,500.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0561 % 2,232.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.67 % 5.01 % 129,402 2.00 14 0.0706 % 2,102.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.34 % 5.45 % 100,127 14.66 16 0.2016 % 2,235.0
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.15 % 207,459 2.69 60 0.1154 % 2,321.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 4.67 % 265,838 7.95 46 0.1733 % 2,187.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 24.68
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 23.41
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
BNA.PR.E SplitShare 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 21.18
Evaluated at bid price : 21.18
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 4.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 2.88 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet 256,350 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 150,000 and 75,000, both at 26.90. Desjardins crossed 25,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.87
Bid-YTW : 2.20 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 171,454 TD crossed blocks of 68,000 and 25,000, both at 23.10. Desjardins crossed 30,000 at the same price. RBC crossed 25,000 and 11,100, both at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 138,870 Desjardins crossed 105,000 at 22.65; Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 22.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 76,909 RBC crossed blocks of 23,800 and 48,800, both at 27.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.06
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %
TD.PR.E FixedReset 74,687 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 35,000 each, both at 27.29.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.20
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 69,975 Scotia crossed blocks of 40,000 and 25,000, both at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 23.43
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 2.91 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 24.00 – 24.65
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.4533

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 22.73
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 15.93 – 16.34
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2862

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 15.93
Evaluated at bid price : 15.93
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.67 – 25.98
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2165

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.67
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.12 – 25.43
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-24
Maturity Price : 24.82
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

CU.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.25 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1529

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %

CM.PR.P Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.53 – 25.78
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1727

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %

YLO MTN BuyBacks: Filings 2011-8-24

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Details are available at SEDI.

YLO MTN Buybacks Disclosed 8/24
Issue Trade
Date
(?)
Face Value Price Yield
?
7.3% Feb 2, 2015 8/18 32,647,000 30,831,827 94.00 9.38%
Total for Issue to Date 120,427,000 113,745,119  
Grand Total to Date 215,441,350 194,563,732  
Yields have been calculated (using MS-Excel) assuming that the “Transaction Date” reported on SEDI is the Trade Date and that all trades were executed for normal settlement

The odd number for the total face value (a non-integral multiple of 1,000) has been previously discussed, so don’t start, OK? Totals include all filings commencing August 18.

Readers of the August edition of PrefLetter will understand that I am bitterly disappointed with the company’s decision to pursue buybacks by private contract; I feel that a Dutch Auction Tender, for all issues in one big pot (with conversion factors on the prices of different issues to reflect differing desirability to the company of purchasing the issues) would be a far better way to go.

YLO has the following preferred issues outstanding: YLO.PR.A, YLO.PR.B, YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D; the Normal Course Issuer Bid for these issues is still being pursued vigorously.

August 23, 2011

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

Some parts of the US economy are growing rapidly:

At least one sector of the economy is booming, and President Barack Obama can legitimately take credit for it. Since he took office, employment has surged 13 percent at federal regulatory agencies. The regulators’ budgets are up 16 percent. (These numbers are derived from a May report published by Washington University and George Washington University.) And that’s before some of the major regulatory initiatives of the administration — the financial-reform bill and the health-care overhaul — are fully implemented.

Obama understands that a reputation for regulatory hyperactivity in the midst of a weak economy wouldn’t help his re-election prospects. In January, he promised “a government- wide review of the rules already on the books to remove outdated regulations that stifle job creation and make our economy less competitive.” That review led to some modest improvements: The Environmental Protection Agency pulled back a rule that would have treated dairy spills on farms as though they were oil spills.

Equitable Group, proud issuer of ETC.PR.A has announced:

that it has become aware of a suspected fraud relating to four loans having a total outstanding balance of approximately $14.0 million. The amount of the total loss, if any, cannot be determined at this time. The matter is presently being investigated with a view to minimizing any potential losses to the Company.

Equitable is currently reviewing its legal options for commencing claims against several parties to the subject loan transactions and is consulting with legal counsel in this regard. In addition, Equitable maintains insurance that is intended to cover such occurrences. There is no assurance that the proceeds or recoveries, if any, will be received in a timely manner, or that such proceeds or recoveries will be sufficient to recover the full amount of the loans.

If totally lost, that’s enough to wipe out a whole quarter’s profit.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 22bp, FixedResets gaining 4bp and DeemedRetractibles up 8bp. Volatility was low, volume was on the low side.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2967 % 2,146.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2967 % 3,228.8
Floater 2.82 % 2.55 % 28,303 20.95 4 0.2967 % 2,318.0
OpRet 4.89 % 1.87 % 57,203 0.58 9 0.0000 % 2,439.7
SplitShare 5.41 % 0.94 % 60,758 0.51 4 0.2200 % 2,479.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,230.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.68 % 5.21 % 130,734 1.18 14 -0.0169 % 2,101.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.46 % 99,896 14.64 16 0.2230 % 2,230.5
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.14 % 207,109 2.69 60 0.0407 % 2,319.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 4.69 % 263,565 7.95 46 0.0771 % 2,184.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -4.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 3.06 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.48
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 24.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 22.56
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater 107,789 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 15.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 15.96
Evaluated at bid price : 15.96
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 90,350 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 85,012 TD bought blocks of 10,000 and 12,800 from anonymous, both at 25.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.88
Bid-YTW : 3.05 %
RY.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 64,331 TD bought two blocks of 20,000 each and one of 12,700 from Nesbitt, all at 24.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 57,790 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 51,571 TD crossed 50,000 at 27.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.94
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 50.66 – 51.15
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3525

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.66
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.13 – 22.52
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2935

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.13
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.73 – 21.14
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3265

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 20.73
Evaluated at bid price : 20.73
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.50 – 25.85
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2666

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %

W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.87 – 25.16
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2121

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-23
Maturity Price : 24.61
Evaluated at bid price : 24.87
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

BNA.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 21.56 – 21.99
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3560

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %

YLO MTN BuyBacks: Filings 2011-8-23

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

Details are available at SEDI.

YLO MTN Buybacks Disclosed 8/23
Issue Trade
Date
(?)
Face Value Price Yield
?
5.25% Feb 15/16 8/18 4,703,350 3,909,193 83.06 10.04%
Total for Issue to date 64,530,350 53,818,901  
6.25% Feb 15, 2036 8/10 320,000 199,638 62.39 10.57%
Total for Issue to Date 5,928,000 3,708,943  
5.71% April 21, 2014 8/18 2,265,000 2,147,556 9288 8.76%
Total for Issue to Date 24,556,000 23,290,769  
7.3% Feb 2, 2015 8/18 7,516,000 7,096,807 94.00 9.38%
Total for Issue to Date 87,780,000 82,913,292  
Grand Total to Date 182,794,350 163,731,905  
Yields have been calculated (using MS-Excel) assuming that the “Transaction Date” reported on SEDI is the Trade Date and that all trades were executed for normal settlement

Alert readers will have noticed that the face value reported for the 5.25% of ’16 is not an integral multiple of 1,000, and those alert readers who have not yet successfully completed their anger management courses will have already written me vitriolic eMails pointing out that the Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated 2005-3-11 states:

The specific terms of any Securities offered will be described in one or more shelf prospectus supplements (collectively or individually, as the case may be, a ‘‘Prospectus Supplement’’), including, where applicable: (i) in the case of Units, the number of Units being offered, the offering price and any other specific terms; (ii) in the case of Subscription Receipts, the number of Subscription Receipts being offered, the offering price, the procedures for the exchange of the Subscription Receipts for Units and any other specific terms; (iii) in the case of Fund Debt Securities and Holdings Debt Securities (collectively, the ‘‘Debt Securities’’), the specific designation, the aggregate principal amount being offered, the currency, the issue and delivery date, the maturity date, the issue price (or the manner of determination thereof if offered on a non-fixed price basis), the interest rate (either fixed or floating, and, if floating, the manner of calculation thereof), the interest payment date(s), the redemption, the exchange or conversion provisions (if any), the repayment terms, the form (either global or definitive), the authorized denominations and any other specific terms; and (iv) in the case of the Notes, the specific designation, the aggregate principal amount being offered, the currency, the issue and delivery date, the maturity date, the issue price (or the manner of determination thereof if offered on a non-fixed price basis), the interest rate (either fixed or floating, and, if floating, the manner of calculation thereof), the interest payment date(s), the redemption, the repayment terms, the form (either global or definitive), the authorized denominations and any other specific terms. A Prospectus Supplement may include specific variable terms pertaining to the Securities that are not within the alternatives and parameters described in this Prospectus

Notes issued hereunder will have a term to maturity of not less than one year and will be issuable in minimum denominations of $5,000 and in $1,000 increments thereafter (or the equivalent thereof in other currencies or currency units at the time of issue) in fully registered definitive or global form, in which case the Notes will be exchangeable only under certain conditions for definitive Notes (as described under the subheading ‘‘Form of Notes’’ below).

… and that the Prospectus and Pricing Supplement No. 1 to this shelf prospectus, dated 2005-11-18, which offers the 5.25% of ’16 does not specify the denomination.

I know, I know. But that’s what’s reported on SEDI, so take it up with them.

At one point while I was with Greydanus, Boeckh, we accidently traded a non-integral multiple of Canada’s once and the dealer processed it. We fixed it up within days … but I remember that at least six months later, we were still seeing custodial reports referring to the invalid number. It was an amusing headache, but a headache nevertheless.

Readers of the August edition of PrefLetter will understand that I am bitterly disappointed with the company’s decision to pursue buybacks by private contract; I feel that a Dutch Auction Tender, for all issues in one big pot (with conversion factors on the prices of different issues to reflect differing desirability to the company of purchasing the issues) would be a far better way to go.

YLO has the following preferred issues outstanding: YLO.PR.A, YLO.PR.B, YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D; the Normal Course Issuer Bid for these issues is still being pursued vigorously.

August 22, 2011

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Richard W Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, gave a speech titled Connecting the dots – Texas employment growth; a dissenting vote; and the ugly truth (with reference to P G Wodehouse):

I voted against that commitment-cum-signal. In the press’ reporting of my dissenting vote and those of the other two members of the FOMC who voted against that commitment – Mr. Kocherlakota, my counterpart from the Minneapolis Fed, and Mr. Plosser, my counterpart from Philadelphia – there was substantial speculation as to the reasons for our dissent. I will let my other two colleagues speak for themselves; I can only speak for myself.

The trimmed mean analysis we do at the Dallas Fed focuses on the price movements of personal consumption expenditures. It is an analysis that tracks the price movements of 178 items that people actually buy, such as beer, haircuts, shoe repair, food and energy prices. In June, the trimmed mean came in at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, versus 2.1 percent for the first five months of the year. The 12-month rate was 1.5 percent.

My concern is not with immediate inflationary pressures.

My concern is with the transmission mechanism for activating the use of the liquidity we have created, which remains on the sidelines of the economy. I posit that nonmonetary factors, not monetary policy, are retarding the willingness and ability of job creators to put to work the liquidity that we have provided.

I have spoken to this many times in public. Those with the capacity to hire American workers – small businesses as well as large, publicly traded or private – are immobilized. Not because they lack entrepreneurial zeal or do not wish to grow; not because they can’t access cheap and available credit. Rather, they simply cannot budget or manage for the uncertainty of fiscal and regulatory policy. In an environment where they are already uncertain of potential growth in demand for their goods and services and have yet to see a significant pickup in top-line revenue, there is palpable angst surrounding the cost of doing business. According to my business contacts, the opera buffa of the debt ceiling negotiations compounded this uncertainty, leaving business decisionmakers frozen in their tracks.

Based on past behavior of fiscal policy makers, businesses understandably regard the debt ceiling agreement and the political outcome of negotiations between Congress and the president with the suspicion akin to how the British humorist P.G. Wodehouse regarded his aunts: “It is no use telling me there are bad aunts and good aunts,” he wrote. “At the core they are all alike. Sooner or later, out pops the cloven hoof.”

Holy smokes, here’s a sign of the times:

Gold reached a new milestone in its role as an investment and haven, with the leading exchange- traded fund that tracks bullion surpassing its equities counterpart as the biggest ETF by market value.

You can call it what you like – me, I call it a contrarian indicator.

It was a positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 14bp, FixedResets up 4bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was good. Volume was absolutely pathetic.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0809 % 2,140.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0809 % 3,219.3
Floater 2.83 % 2.57 % 28,528 20.88 4 -0.0809 % 2,311.1
OpRet 4.89 % 1.78 % 56,431 0.59 9 -0.2022 % 2,439.7
SplitShare 5.42 % 1.38 % 58,045 0.52 4 0.6112 % 2,473.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2022 % 2,230.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.68 % 4.91 % 131,207 2.01 14 0.0749 % 2,101.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.37 % 5.46 % 103,725 14.64 16 0.1393 % 2,225.5
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.16 % 213,178 2.72 60 0.0398 % 2,318.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.07 % 4.70 % 263,194 7.95 46 0.0292 % 2,182.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 22.75
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 2.40 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 2.57 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 24.49
Evaluated at bid price : 24.78
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
BNA.PR.E SplitShare 2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 4.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 2.86 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 53,880 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.30
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
RY.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 53,710 TD crossed 40,000 at 24.71.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 41,520 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 27,125 TD crossed 25,000 at 27.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.10
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium 26,185 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2011-09-21
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.39
Bid-YTW : -14.62 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 24,575 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.82
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %
There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IAG.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 26.76 – 27.30
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3350

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.76
Bid-YTW : 3.49 %

IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.86 – 26.45
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4276

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

TRI.PR.B Floater Quote: 21.80 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5615

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 2.40 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 24.02 – 24.39
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2681

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.51 – 22.99
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3785

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-22
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %

NA.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 27.35 – 27.64
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2034

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.35
Bid-YTW : 2.73 %

YLO MTN BuyBack: Filings 2011-8-22

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

Details are available at SEDI.

YLO MTN Buybacks Disclosed 8/22
Issue Trade
Date
(?)
Face Value Price Yield
?
5.25% Feb 15/16 8/16 38,000,000 31,561,861 83.00 10.05%
Total for Issue To Date 59,827,000 49,909,708  
7.3% Feb 2, 2015 8/16 4,650,000 4,386,810 94.00 9.37%
Total for Issue To Date 80,264,000 75,816.695  
Grand Total To Date 167,990,000 150,378,911  
Yields have been calculated (using MS-Excel) assuming that the “Transaction Date” reported on SEDI is the Trade Date and that all trades were executed for normal settlement

Totals to date include transactions previously reported.

Readers of the August edition of PrefLetter will understand that I am bitterly disappointed with the company’s decision to pursue buybacks by private contract; I feel that a Dutch Auction Tender, for all issues in one big pot (with conversion factors on the prices of different issues to reflect differing desirability to the company of purchasing the issues) would be a far better way to go.

YLO has the following preferred issues outstanding: YLO.PR.A, YLO.PR.B, YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D; the Normal Course Issuer Bid for these issues is still being pursued vigorously.

YLO MTN BuyBack: Company Spends $114.4MM

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

Hat tip to commenter LongRoad on StockHouse for bringing this to my attention.

Details are available at SEDI.

YLO MTN Buybacks Disclosed 8/18 & 8/19
Issue Trade
Date
(?)
Face Value Price Yield
?
5.25% Feb 15/16 8/9 5,273,000 4,522,138 83.23 9.95%
  8/10 3,736,000 3,108,352 83.20 9.97%
  8/11 5,703,000 4,795,716 84.08 9.70%
  8/12 7,069,000 5,883,441 83.20 9.98%
  8/15 46,000 38,200 83.00 10.04%
Total for Issue 21,827,000 18,347,874  
6.25% Feb 15, 2036 8/10 254,000 159,461 62.78 10.51%
  8/10 5,354,000 3,349,844 62.57 10.54%
Total for Issue 5,608,000 3,509,305  
5.71% April 21, 2014 8/9 18,739,000 17,772,583 93.08 8.64%
  8/10 2,638,000 2,503,190 93.08 8.65%
  8/11 879,000 834,218 93.08 8.66%
  8/12 35,000 33,222 93.08 8.66%
Total for Issue 22,291,000 21,143,213  
7.3% Feb 2, 2015 8/9 12,567,000 11,863,248 94.20 9.29%
  8/10 9,960,000 9,408,216 94.20 9.29%
  8/11 44,021,000 41,591,041 94.20 9.30%
  8/12 9,066,000 8,567,370 94.20 9.30%
Total for Issue 75,614,000 71,429,875  
Grand Total 125,340,000 114,430,239  
Yields have been calculated (using MS-Excel) assuming that the “Transaction Date” reported on SEDI is the Trade Date and that all trades were executed for normal settlement

Readers of the August edition of PrefLetter will understand that I am bitterly disappointed with the company’s decision to pursue buybacks by private contract; I feel that a Dutch Auction Tender, for all issues in one big pot (with conversion factors on the prices of different issues to reflect differing desirability to the company of purchasing the issues) would be a far better way to go.

YLO has the following preferred issues outstanding: YLO.PR.A, YLO.PR.B, YLO.PR.C and YLO.PR.D; the Normal Course Issuer Bid for these issues is still being pursued vigorously.

August 19, 2011

Friday, August 19th, 2011

William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York gave a speech titled The national and regional economic outlook providing some colour on the Second Dip:

While there have been indications that home prices in the area have been firming in the past few months, the mortgage crisis continues to take a toll on New Jersey homeowners. As of March of this year, 10 percent of all borrowers in the state were either 90-plus days delinquent on their mortgages or their homes were in foreclosure – above the national rate of 7.7 percent. In Essex County, that rate had reached 16 percent, and in Newark it was 30 percent.

In our recent small business survey, which we conducted in May, we asked firms to report on their first quarter sales and their future outlook. The results were encouraging. Over two thirds of firms told us they had stable or increased sales in Q1, up from 50 percent last year. When asked about their future outlook, while the majority of business owners, 56 percent, were neutral – many more said they were optimistic than pessimistic – 37 percent compared with only 7 percent.

Some will be glad the week is finally over:

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) plunged 27 percent this week, the most since the October 1987 market crash, after a strategy shift undermined confidence in its managers. Technology, industrial and raw-material companies in the S&P 500 dropped at least 6.9 percent, the most among 10 groups. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) retreated more than 8.4 percent after some of the world’s biggest banks — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. — slashed economic growth forecasts.

The S&P 500 lost 4.7 percent to 1,123.53. It has sunk 16 percent since July 22 as about $3 trillion was erased from the value of U.S. equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 451.37 points, or 4 percent, to 10,817.65 this week, extending its four-week decline to 1,863.51 points.

Stocks in the S&P 500 are moving in lockstep with each other by the most since at least 1990, a sign that the market’s biggest retreat in three years may not be over, according to MF Global Holdings Ltd. The average correlation coefficient between the 500 companies and the index was 0.8268 yesterday, using 60 days of data, according to MF Global.

Correlation among S&P 500 stocks exceeded 0.78 twice previously, according to MF Global. After the first time, on Dec. 1, 2008, the S&P 500 declined 17 percent to a 12-year low on March 9, 2009. Correlation peaked again on July 26, 2010, when the benchmark slipped 6.1 percent over the next month, data compiled by MF Global and Bloomberg show.

Others will be hoping for more of the same:

Gold rose to a record above $1,880 an ounce in New York, rallying for the seventh straight week, as concern that the global economy is slowing drove equities lower.

So why not play it safe?

Treasury 30-year bond yields had their biggest weekly drop since the depths of the financial crisis in December 2008 on concern the U.S. economic recovery is stalling and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is getting worse.

Yields on five-, seven- and 10-year notes fluctuated a day after plunging to historic lows. Government bonds have rallied since the Federal Reserve pledged this month to keep its target lending rate at virtually zero until at least mid-2013 and Standard & Poor’s lowered the top U.S. credit rating for the first time.

A gain in 30-year bonds pushed yields down three basis points to 3.39 percent. They had a weekly drop of 34 basis points, the most since tumbling 49 basis points during the five days ended Dec. 19, 2008. Yields on five- and seven-year notes were little changed today after falling yesterday to record lows of 0.79 percent and 1.31 percent.

There are rumblings that Basel III is in trouble:

The 27 member-states of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision fought over the new regime, known as Basel III, for more than a year before agreeing in December to require banks to bolster capital and reduce reliance on borrowing. Now, as they put the standards into effect in their own countries, European Union lawmakers are revising definitions of capital, while the U.S. is struggling to reconcile the Basel mandates with financial reforms imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act.

“The game on the ground has changed in Europe and the U.S.,” said V. Gerard Comizio, a former Treasury Department lawyer who is now a senior partner at Paul Hastings Janofsky & Walker LLP in Washington. “The realists in Europe realized that their banks cannot raise the capital they’d need to comply. U.S. banks have reversed course and are more assertively fighting against it. The future of Basel III looks less certain now than it did when it was agreed to.

Well, that would be the regulatory standard, wouldn’t it? Do wonderful-sounding things, but do them badly. More particularly:

The European proposal alters the definition of capital that Basel III aimed to tighten when the committee agreed not to allow anything other than common shares to count toward the top- quality bank capital regulators examine.

During the 2010 negotiations, Germany sought to maintain recognition of so-called silent participations — hybrid securities that act like debt and equity at the same time — which some banks rely on for more than half their capital. While Germany lost the battle to exempt silent participations last year, the EU’s implementation proposal was written to allow the securities to be included if they fulfill certain conditions, according to an EU official who asked not to be identified because he wasn’t authorized to speak.

Italy fought during Basel talks last year to include deferred tax assets — future deductions from tax liabilities resulting from current losses — when calculating top-tier capital. Basel III restricted use of these assets to no more than 10 percent of a bank’s capital. The EU’s proposal would allow unrestricted use of deferred tax assets if they comply with certain requirements. Italy modified its tax laws in February to enable the assets to meet those conditions.

Counting tax assets would raise the capital ratio at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the oldest bank in the world and Italy’s third-largest, by about 1 percentage point, according to a February Mediobanca SpA report on the benefits of the tax-law change to Italian banks.

Basel III also sought to put an end to the double counting of capital in insurance subsidiaries, which many European lenders do. The proposed EU rules don’t require banks to deduct investments in these subsidiaries from their capital, which will allow the double counting to continue, said analysts including Andrew Stimpson at KBW Inc. in London. That would benefit banks such as France’s Credit Agricole SA (ACA), whose insurance subsidiary accounts for 10 percent of income.

European banks had opposed a leverage ratio, arguing that different accounting regimes make the balance sheets of U.S. lenders smaller than those of their foreign counterparts and that restricting leverage would unfairly punish non-U.S. firms. While U.S. banks are subject to a leverage cap, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles allow them to keep more assets off their balance sheets and to net out derivatives more than International Financial Reporting Standards do.

The Basel committee addressed the issue by devising a mechanism for adding total assets that puts aside different accounting standards. Still, the EU proposal doesn’t commit to implementing the ratio by 2018 as required by Basel III. Instead, it asks for a five-year period to review the rule’s effectiveness in curbing risk before deciding whether to make it binding.

The EU proposal also softens Basel III’s liquidity standards that would require banks to hold enough cash or easily sellable assets to meet short- and long-term liabilities. It omits the rule covering debt coming due in the next 12 months and modifies the one for 30-day obligations to allow counting covered bonds as liquid assets. Denmark, Sweden and Spain lobbied for the modification because their banks have sizeable holdings of those bonds, which are securities backed by the cash flow from a pool of mortgage loans

They don’t have any preferreds outstanding, but many will be interested to note that DBRS has downgraded Canadian Tire:

DBRS has today downgraded the Debentures and Medium-Term Notes ratings of Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (Canadian Tire or the Company) to BBB (high) from A (low) and its Commercial Paper rating to R-2 (high) from R-1 (low); the trends are Stable. This action follows the Company’s acquisition of The Forzani Group Ltd. (FGL) and removes the ratings from Under Review with Negative Implications.

Andrew Coyne – an old school buddy – has an excellent article about Milkfare in MacLeans, titled The $25,000 Cow.

It was a relatively quiet, mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 8bp, FixedResets losing 9bp and DeemedRetractibles down 7bp. All entries on the Performance Highlights table were losers. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5131 % 2,142.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5131 % 3,221.9
Floater 2.83 % 2.60 % 29,680 20.81 4 -1.5131 % 2,313.0
OpRet 4.88 % 3.70 % 57,080 0.84 9 -0.0918 % 2,444.6
SplitShare 5.45 % 0.92 % 60,153 0.52 4 -0.1263 % 2,458.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0918 % 2,235.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.68 % 5.08 % 133,954 1.15 14 0.0905 % 2,099.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.37 % 5.37 % 107,483 14.66 16 0.0841 % 2,222.4
FixedReset 5.14 % 3.19 % 214,184 2.73 60 -0.0898 % 2,317.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 4.73 % 262,170 8.01 46 -0.0697 % 2,181.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 15.83
Evaluated at bid price : 15.83
Bid-YTW : 3.35 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 15.90
Evaluated at bid price : 15.90
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 2.36 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.15
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 2.60 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 24.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 256,675 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.87
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 135,330 TD crossed 30,000 at 24.80, then two blocks of 50,000 each at 24.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 133,975 Desjardins crossed 100,000 at 24.75; RBC crossed 30,400 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 123,340 Nesbitt crossed a block of 20,000 shares and two of 40,000 each, all at 24.71.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
RY.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 88,425 TD crossed 77,700 at 24.71.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.67
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 61,600 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
There were 32 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 24.01 – 27.10
Spot Rate : 3.0900
Average : 2.3222

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %

BMO.PR.K Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.01 – 26.39
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2708

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

BNS.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 24.50 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3869

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 20.27 – 21.20
Spot Rate : 0.9300
Average : 0.8455

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-08-19
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 2.60 %

TCA.PR.X Perpetual-Premium Quote: 50.64 – 50.98
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2564

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-15
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.64
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.16 – 22.45
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2071

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %