Archive for July, 2017

July 31, 2017

Monday, July 31st, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5341 % 2,419.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5341 % 4,439.9
Floater 3.58 % 3.61 % 126,016 18.25 3 0.5341 % 2,558.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0785 % 3,059.9
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.43 % 52,351 1.39 5 0.0785 % 3,654.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0785 % 2,851.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.38 % 4.75 % 62,349 5.96 21 0.0699 % 2,779.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.29 % 5.29 % 79,132 14.96 15 -0.1300 % 2,922.9
FixedReset 4.32 % 4.43 % 177,007 6.34 98 -0.0226 % 2,411.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.07 % 5.39 % 114,459 6.11 30 -0.0859 % 2,860.6
FloatingReset 2.60 % 2.94 % 40,866 4.26 10 0.1079 % 2,644.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-31
Maturity Price : 15.61
Evaluated at bid price : 15.61
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-31
Maturity Price : 21.60
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 33,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-31
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset 31,081 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 28,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-31
Maturity Price : 23.02
Evaluated at bid price : 24.06
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset 23,625 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 20,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 19,930 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
There were 9 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 15.60 – 17.00
Spot Rate : 1.4000
Average : 0.8685

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-31
Maturity Price : 15.60
Evaluated at bid price : 15.60
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %

IFC.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 22.11 – 22.78
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.4427

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 23.21 – 23.74
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3494

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.21
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

SLF.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 23.74 – 24.25
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.3537

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %

BMO.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 26.15 – 26.50
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2045

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.60 – 23.95
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2058

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %

DBRS Improves RY Senior Debt Trend to Stable

Monday, July 31st, 2017

DBRS has announced that it:

has today confirmed the ratings of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC or the Bank) and its related entities, including RBC’s Long-Term Issuer Rating at AA and Short-Term Issuer Rating at R-1 (high). RBC’s Long-Term Issuer Rating is composed of an Intrinsic Assessment (IA) of AA (low) and a Support Assessment (SA) of SA2, reflecting the expectation of timely, systemic support from the Government of Canada (rated AAA with a Stable trend by DBRS). The SA2 designation results in a one-notch uplift to the Long-Term Issuer Rating. The trends on RBC’s short-term ratings, as well as the Long-Term Issuer Rating, Long-Term Senior Debt, Long-Term Deposits and older-style subordinated debt, have been revised to Stable from Negative, while other capital instruments whose ratings are notched down from the Bank’s IA remain Stable.

The revision of the trend to Stable reflects DBRS’s view that RBC’s long-tenured track record of strong fundamentals and growing franchise points to an improving IA, which may offset the anticipated regulatory reform support-related downward pressure on the rating. Therefore, the expectation of a ratings downgrade following the removal of support is less likely.

DBRS continues to believe that changes in Canadian banking legislation and regulation point to a declining potential for timely support for Canada’s systemically important banks. Eventually, this decline is expected to result in a change in DBRS’s SA to SA3 from SA2. Currently, for these banks, the SA2 results in an uplift of one notch above their IAs. This regime primarily affects the six big Canadian banks that have been designated as domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). While this bail-in regime is expected to come into force in H1 2018, the proposed new bail-inable debt will only begin to be issued by D-SIBs at that time and no existing debt will be subject to bail-in retroactively. Thus, DBRS considers that there would not be sufficient bail-inable debt initially to reduce the likelihood of systemic support from its current level in Canada. DBRS expects to maintain the current notch of support until the D-SIBs build up sufficient new bail-inable senior debt such that the likelihood of systemic support has declined to a level at which this uplift is no longer warranted. The timing of such action depends on the finalization of the bail-in regime and the extent to which the D-SIBs build up their bail-inable senior debt. Two factors pressuring the D-SIBs to issue new bail-inable senior debt are the maturing of their existing senior debt and their need to meet the newly established requirements for total loss absorbing capacity (TLAC) by November 1, 2021. DBRS continues to evaluate the impact of the proposed regulations and will comment further as the proposals are finalized. For more detail, please see “DBRS Comments on Proposed Implementation of Bail-in Regime in Canada; Bank Negative Trends Unchanged” published July 11, 2017, on dbrs.com.

The paper DBRS Comments on Proposed Implementation of Bail-in Regime in Canada; Bank Negative Trends Unchanged states in part:

Under the CDIC Act, if a bank is determined to have ceased or is about to cease to be viable, the CDIC would be authorized to take temporary control or ownership to the bank and conduct the bail-in process. Existing CDIC resolution tools include liquidation, forced sale and creation of a bridge bank. Adding to these powers, the proposed Bail-in Regime permits the conversion of bail-inable liabilities into common shares to recapitalize the distressed bank. CDIC would establish the terms and conditions of the bail-in with the intent under this Act to recapitalize the bank, while respecting the relative hierarchy of the bank’s obligations. Under this approach, more senior obligations are treated better than more junior obligations, as compared to an absolute hierarchy whereby more junior obligations would be written off completely. Thus, senior bail-inable debt would receive more common shares than NVCC securities and all securities in the same class would receive the same treatment.

In its TLAC guideline, OSFI specified its proposed minimum requirements for TLAC for D-SIBs. Initially, there will be a minimum of at least 21.5% for the Risk-based TLAC ratio (TLAC Measure / Risk Weighted Assets). Focusing on the risks faced by a bank, this ratio is considered the primary basis for assessing a D-SIB’s TLAC. There is also a minimum of 6.75% for the TLAC Leverage ratio (TLAC Measure / Exposure Measure), with the framework for determining this exposure being provided in OSFI’s Leverage Requirements guideline. This ratio is considered an overall measure of a D-SIB’s TLAC. Subject to certain adjustments and exclusions, TLAC comprises common equity Tier 1, additional Tier 1 capital, Tier 2 capital, and other TLAC instruments, principally bail-inable senior unsecured debt. OSFI considers that these minimums are consistent with the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) requirements for G-SIBs, thereby ensuring that Canada’s six D-SIBs are in a comparable position to G-SIBs globally and prepared if there is a change in the designation of one or more of these banks. The intent of the TLAC requirements is to require D-SIBs to have enough resources to be restored to viability after experiencing significant losses in a very stressed environment. D-SIBs will be expected to maintain buffers over the minimum requirements.

The original trend change was reported on PrefBlog in 2015 in the post DBRS: Bank Senior Debt On Trend-Negative Due to Government Support Uncertainty

Preferred shares were not affected by the trend opinion, but I considered the information to be material.

RY’s currently outstanding preferreds are: RY.PR.A, RY.PR.B, RY.PR.C, RY.PR.D, RY.PR.E, RY.PR.F, RY.PR.G, RY.PR.H, RY.PR.I, RY.PR.J, RY.PR.K, RY.PR.L, RY.PR.M, RY.PR.N, RY.PR.O, RY.PR.P, RY.PR.Q, RY.PR.R, RY.PR.W and RY.PR.Z.

DBRS Improves TD Senior Debt Trend to Stable

Monday, July 31st, 2017

DBRS has announced that it:

has today confirmed the ratings of The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD or the Bank) and its related entities, including TD’s Long-Term Issuer Rating at AA and Short-Term Issuer Rating at R-1 (high). TD’s Long-Term Issuer Rating is composed of an Intrinsic Assessment (IA) of AA (low) and a Support Assessment (SA) of SA2, reflecting the expectation of timely, systemic support from the Government of Canada (rated AAA with a Stable trend by DBRS). The SA2 designation results in a one-notch uplift to the Long-Term Issuer Rating. The trends on TD’s short-term ratings, as well as the Long-Term Issuer Rating, Long-Term Senior Debt, Long-Term Deposits and older-style subordinated debt, have been revised to Stable from Negative, while other capital instruments whose ratings are notched down from the Bank’s IA remain Stable.

The revision of the trends to Stable reflects DBRS’s view that TD’s long-tenured track record of improving fundamentals points to an improving IA, which may offset the anticipated regulatory reform support-related downward pressure on the rating. Therefore, the expectation of a ratings downgrade following the removal of support is less likely.

DBRS continues to view that changes in Canadian banking legislation and regulation point to a declining potential for timely support for Canada’s systemically important banks. Eventually, this decline is expected to result in a change in DBRS’s SA to SA3 from SA2. Currently, for these banks, the SA2 results in an uplift of one notch above their IAs. This regime primarily affects the six big Canadian banks that have been designated as domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). While this bail-in regime is expected to come into force in H1 2018, the proposed new bail-inable debt will only begin to be issued by D-SIBs at that time and no existing debt will be subject to bail-in retroactively. Thus, DBRS considers that there would not be sufficient bail-inable debt initially to reduce the likelihood of systemic support from its current level in Canada. DBRS expects to maintain the current notch of support until the D-SIBs build up sufficient new bail-inable senior debt such that the likelihood of systemic support has declined to a level at which this uplift is no longer warranted. The timing of such action depends on the finalization of the bail-in regime and the extent to which the D-SIBs build up their bail-inable senior debt. Two factors pressuring the D-SIBs to issue new bail-inable senior debt are the maturing of their existing senior debt and their need to meet the newly established requirements for total loss absorbing capacity (TLAC) by November 1, 2021. DBRS continues to evaluate the impact of the proposed regulations and will comment further as the proposals are finalized. For more detail, please see “DBRS Comments on Proposed Implementation of Bail-in Regime in Canada; Bank Negative Trends Unchanged” published July 11, 2017, on dbrs.com.

The paper DBRS Comments on Proposed Implementation of Bail-in Regime in Canada; Bank Negative Trends Unchanged states in part:

Under the CDIC Act, if a bank is determined to have ceased or is about to cease to be viable, the CDIC would be authorized to take temporary control or ownership to the bank and conduct the bail-in process. Existing CDIC resolution tools include liquidation, forced sale and creation of a bridge bank. Adding to these powers, the proposed Bail-in Regime permits the conversion of bail-inable liabilities into common shares to recapitalize the distressed bank. CDIC would establish the terms and conditions of the bail-in with the intent under this Act to recapitalize the bank, while respecting the relative hierarchy of the bank’s obligations. Under this approach, more senior obligations are treated better than more junior obligations, as compared to an absolute hierarchy whereby more junior obligations would be written off completely. Thus, senior bail-inable debt would receive more common shares than NVCC securities and all securities in the same class would receive the same treatment.

In its TLAC guideline, OSFI specified its proposed minimum requirements for TLAC for D-SIBs. Initially, there will be a minimum of at least 21.5% for the Risk-based TLAC ratio (TLAC Measure / Risk Weighted Assets). Focusing on the risks faced by a bank, this ratio is considered the primary basis for assessing a D-SIB’s TLAC. There is also a minimum of 6.75% for the TLAC Leverage ratio (TLAC Measure / Exposure Measure), with the framework for determining this exposure being provided in OSFI’s Leverage Requirements guideline. This ratio is considered an overall measure of a D-SIB’s TLAC. Subject to certain adjustments and exclusions, TLAC comprises common equity Tier 1, additional Tier 1 capital, Tier 2 capital, and other TLAC instruments, principally bail-inable senior unsecured debt. OSFI considers that these minimums are consistent with the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) requirements for G-SIBs, thereby ensuring that Canada’s six D-SIBs are in a comparable position to G-SIBs globally and prepared if there is a change in the designation of one or more of these banks. The intent of the TLAC requirements is to require D-SIBs to have enough resources to be restored to viability after experiencing significant losses in a very stressed environment. D-SIBs will be expected to maintain buffers over the minimum requirements.

The original trend change was reported on PrefBlog in 2015 in the post DBRS: Bank Senior Debt On Trend-Negative Due to Government Support Uncertainty

Preferred shares were not affected by the trend opinion, but I considered the information to be material.

TD’s currently outstanding preferreds are: TD.PF.A, TD.PF.B, TD.PF.C, TD.PF.D, TD.PF.E, TD.PF.F, TD.PF.G, TD.PF.H, TD.PF.I, TD.PR.S, TD.PR.T, TD.PR.Y, TD.PR.Z.

July 28, 2017

Friday, July 28th, 2017

I’m always happy when somebody agrees with me:

The report, released Thursday by the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary1 and authored by Henri-Paul Rousseau, examines the option of banning embedded sales commissions for Canadian financial advisers and the broader, public-interest issues arising from such a ban.

According to Mr. Rousseau, the ban on these commissions would create a number of public policy issues. Firstly, it would likely create an advice gap in Canada, due to households being averse to paying up front for an advice fee. Secondly, it will likely cause a loss of choice for Canadians who have varying needs and preferences. The report says that smaller and independent product manufacturers and distributors would be squeezed out, creating a market concentration in the hands of the bigger financial-advice players, as well as a loss in pricing transparency for clients.

The full report is titled WHY BANNING EMBEDDED SALES COMMISSIONS IS A PUBLIC POLICY ISSUE: A commentary adapted from notes for the concluding panel of “The New Paradigm of Financial Advice” conference, held in Toronto on March 31, 2017:

The U.K. provides an example which should not be followed. Regulators there have banned embedded commissions, forcing clients to pay directly for financial advice. The result is that modest-income clients have decided not to seek financial advice, even though that decision will likely negatively affect their portfolios.

The dangers of this “advice gap” are being downplayed by those who believe that robo-advisors and banks can fill the need instead. In fact, robo-advisors and banks are mostly not equipped to step into the gamma role of coaching their clients.

A ban would also mean less choice in the market for a service that needs to be competitive and innovative to serve the broad spectrum of clients’ circumstances, risk appetites and needs. In addition, smaller and independent product manufacturers and distributors would be squeezed out, creating a market concentration in the hands of
the bigger players.

The second paragraph quoted above is incomplete, it seems to me, with respect to the role of robo-advisors. That channel seems best suited for ‘those who know not and know that they know not’. Those are the guys who earnestly seek out an advisor and are greatly impressed when he repeats that morning’s headlines from the Wall Street Journal, together with commentary on what “Janet” and “Stephen” are going to do with “interest rates” in the next six months, but they’re not really all that interested. ‘Get me invested and don’t bother me’ is their motto and a robo-advisor can scratch that itch really well.

The problem is with ‘those who know not and know not that they know not’. These are the people with a profound disinterest in financial markets. They’re the people who, unless they happen to know somebody in the business, will go to the bank and ask for something “safe”, so the friendly banker will put them into a grossly unsuitable portfolio of GICs that are immensely profitable for the bank. What we should want, as a matter of public policy, is for them to know that Charlie down at the club ‘does something with stocks and bonds’, so they go to Charlie. I will agree that Charlie is probably not the greatest advisor around, but he knows more than a bank teller and has access to a wider range of investments. Sure, he takes his half-point cut on the deal. It’s worth it. Not because his advice, considered objectively, is so wonderful, but because his advice has given his new clients confidence and because – in most, although certainly not all, cases – the portfolio his clients end up with is reasonable. Not great, not particularly cheap, but reasonable.

Banks? My attention was drawn recently to the RBC Managed Payout Solution. My God. How can anybody offer up that marketing strategy without blushing? I just about had a coronary.

So maybe the economy’s not so good:

Employers created an average of 11,000 new jobs a month for the first five months of the year, according to Statistics Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) for May, released on Thursday.

The weak jobs data suggest that “paid employment creation so far this year is the worst since the 2009 recession,” said Krishen Rangasamy, senior economist with National Bank of Canada.

The payroll survey results stand in sharp contrast to Statscan’s other labour report, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which has exceeded expectations for months and paints a much rosier picture of the country’s job market. The difference in the numbers reported by the two employment surveys is not unusual because the SEPH report is based on payroll data from Canada Revenue Agency, while the LFS relies on people providing information about their wages and job status to data collectors. The SEPH numbers are considered more reliable; the labour force survey is volatile and not as dependable given that it has a huge margin of error.

LIBOR is on its way out:

The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority will phase out the key interest-rate indicator by the end of 2021 after it became clear there wasn’t enough meaningful data to sustain the benchmark that underpins more than $350 trillion in securities, Andrew Bailey, the head of the regulator, said in a speech Thursday at Bloomberg’s London office.

But the 58-year-old Bailey said the market supporting Libor — where banks provide each other with unsecured lending — was no longer “sufficiently active” to determine a reliable rate and alternatives must be found. For one currency and lending period there were only 15 transactions in 2016, he said.

The FCA only started regulating Libor in 2013, the same year legislation was passed making it a criminal offense to take any misleading action in relation to financial benchmarks.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5083 % 2,406.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5083 % 4,416.3
Floater 3.60 % 3.63 % 127,190 18.23 3 -0.5083 % 2,545.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0864 % 3,057.5
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.43 % 52,317 3.78 5 0.0864 % 3,651.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0864 % 2,848.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.39 % 4.71 % 63,188 6.09 21 -0.0278 % 2,777.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.25 % 80,086 14.97 15 0.0607 % 2,926.7
FixedReset 4.32 % 4.32 % 179,116 6.38 98 0.1529 % 2,412.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.07 % 5.42 % 118,276 6.12 30 -0.0595 % 2,863.0
FloatingReset 2.54 % 2.89 % 42,339 4.27 10 -0.1573 % 2,641.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 7.91 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.99
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.24
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 269,117 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.73
Evaluated at bid price : 22.19
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 166,736 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 128,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 117,621 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 22.93
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
NA.PR.X FixedReset 111,178 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.74
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 109,410 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.64
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
NA.PR.W FixedReset Quote: 21.64 – 22.05
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2733

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %

BAM.PF.I FixedReset Quote: 25.75 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1441

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.15 – 22.47
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2318

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %

BAM.PF.F FixedReset Quote: 23.87 – 24.27
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3172

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 23.87
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.24 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1716

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2047-07-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.24
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %

GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 17.23 – 17.60
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2926

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.23
Bid-YTW : 8.15 %

July 27, 2017

Thursday, July 27th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4176 % 2,419.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4176 % 4,438.9
Floater 3.58 % 3.61 % 127,597 18.27 3 0.4176 % 2,558.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4689 % 3,054.9
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.49 % 52,771 3.79 5 -0.4689 % 3,648.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4689 % 2,846.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.38 % 4.68 % 64,200 5.90 21 0.0982 % 2,778.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.27 % 79,321 15.00 15 0.0636 % 2,924.9
FixedReset 4.32 % 4.33 % 181,584 6.38 98 -0.0981 % 2,408.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 5.38 % 119,212 6.13 30 0.0028 % 2,864.7
FloatingReset 2.53 % 2.80 % 43,243 4.27 10 0.0898 % 2,646.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.84
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
PVS.PR.E SplitShare -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 20.92
Evaluated at bid price : 20.92
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 212,450 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 22.29
Evaluated at bid price : 22.63
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 92,822 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 75,289 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 21.64
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 74,160 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 65,925 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 22.13
Evaluated at bid price : 22.37
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 57,930 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
There were 19 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.59 – 23.44
Spot Rate : 0.8500
Average : 0.5420

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 22.59
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %

PVS.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.28 – 25.65
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2816

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 23.84 – 24.12
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1926

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.84
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %

BAM.PF.F FixedReset Quote: 23.89 – 24.20
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2265

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-27
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 22.41 – 22.69
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2038

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 24.66 – 24.93
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.2052

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.66
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %

New Issue: CPX FixedReset, 5.75%+412M575

Thursday, July 27th, 2017

Capital Power Corporation has announced:

that it will issue 5,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Preference Shares, Series 9 (the “Series 9 Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per Series 9 Share (the “Offering”) for aggregate gross proceeds of $125 million on a bought deal basis with a syndicate of underwriters, co-led by TD Securities Inc. and National Bank Financial Inc. In addition, Capital Power has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part anytime up to two business days prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 1,000,000 Series 9 Shares on the same terms, for additional gross proceeds of up to $25 million.

The Series 9 Shares will pay fixed cumulative dividends of $1.4375 per share per annum, yielding 5.75% per annum, payable on the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year, as and when declared by the board of directors of Capital Power, for the initial period ending September 30, 2022. Assuming an issue date of August 9, 2017, the first quarterly dividend of $0.2048 per share is expected to be paid on September 29, 2017. The dividend rate will be reset on September 30, 2022 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield and 4.12%, provided that, in any event, such rate shall not be less than 5.75%. The Series 9 Shares are redeemable by Capital Power, at its option, on September 30, 2022 and on September 30 of every fifth year thereafter.

Holders of Series 9 Shares will have the right to convert all or any part of their shares into Cumulative Floating Rate Preference Shares, Series 10 (the “Series 10 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on September 30, 2022 and every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 10 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.12%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Capital Power.

Net proceeds of the offering will be used to reduce indebtedness under Capital Power’s credit facilities.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, a business unit of S&P Global Canada Corp., has assigned a provisional rating of P-3 for the Series 9 Shares and DBRS Limited has assigned a preliminary rating of Pfd-3 (low) for the Series 9 Shares.

The Series 9 Shares will be issued pursuant to a prospectus supplement to Capital Power’s short form base shelf prospectus dated May 3, 2016. The prospectus supplement will be filed with securities regulatory authorities in all provinces and territories in Canada. The Offering is subject to receipt of all necessary regulatory and stock exchange approvals.

They have also announced:

On July 25, 2017, the Company’s Board of Directors approved an increase of 7.1% in the annual dividend for holders of its common shares, from $1.56 per common share to $1.67 per common share. This increased common dividend will commence with the third quarter 2017 quarterly dividend payment on October 31, 2017 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 29, 2017.

The new issue is extraordinarily expensive, according to Implied Volatility analysis:

impvol_cpx_170727
Click for Big

It’s a standard trick, but it never gets old! Set the yield of your new issue in accordance with the yield of lower-priced instruments … which will almost always have lower yields due to their lower call risk. The theoretical price of the new issue, according to this analysis, is 23.65.

July 26, 2017

Wednesday, July 26th, 2017

Some timely commentary from Pew Research:

Manufacturing jobs in the United States have declined considerably over the past several decades, even as manufacturing output – the value of goods and products manufactured in the U.S. – has grown strongly. But while most Americans are aware of the decline in employment, relatively few know about the increase in output, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

Four of every five Americans (81%) know that the total number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. has decreased over the past three decades, according to the survey of 4,135 adults from Pew Research Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel. But just 35% know that the nation’s manufacturing output has risen over the same time span, versus 47% who say output has decreased and 17% who say it’s stayed about the same. Only 26% of those surveyed got both questions right.

ft_17_07_18_manufacturing_decline
Click for Big

But the news of the day was the FOMC statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

For the time being, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated; this program is described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.

No dissent! And in the States that means something – not like in Canada, where the very idea of two people disagreeing is considered to be too embarrassing for words.

There was an immediate reaction on the FX markets:

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest in more than a year, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped back below 2.3 percent after the Fed held rates steady and indicated it would start unwinding its balance sheet “relatively soon.”

fx_170726
Click for Big

… but Treasuries regained most of the ground lost yesterday:

  • •The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 2.29 percent.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.28%, equivalent to 6.86% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little under 3.95%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 295bp, a significant narrowing from the 305bp reported July 19.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4619 % 2,409.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4619 % 4,420.4
Floater 3.59 % 3.62 % 128,200 18.25 3 -0.4619 % 2,547.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2272 % 3,069.3
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.28 % 51,929 1.40 5 0.2272 % 3,665.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2272 % 2,859.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.39 % 4.71 % 64,755 6.10 21 0.0718 % 2,775.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.29 % 5.28 % 80,525 14.97 15 0.2639 % 2,923.0
FixedReset 4.32 % 4.32 % 183,535 6.37 98 0.0756 % 2,411.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 5.34 % 119,627 6.13 30 0.3193 % 2,864.7
FloatingReset 2.53 % 2.77 % 43,767 4.27 10 0.2881 % 2,643.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PVS.PR.E SplitShare 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-08-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : -6.92 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 2.57 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 6.70 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.72
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.28
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.R FixedReset 1,228,464 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 192,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset 151,905 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 134,207 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 127,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.91
Evaluated at bid price : 23.86
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 122,429 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 21.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset 101,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 21.81 – 22.27
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3055

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.76 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3104

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.55 – 22.88
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2393

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 22.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.70 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2130

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-11-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

SLF.PR.J FloatingReset Quote: 17.12 – 17.40
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1979

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.12
Bid-YTW : 7.67 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 20.70 – 20.98
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2035

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-26
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

DGS.PR.A To Get Bigger

Wednesday, July 26th, 2017

Brompton Funds has announced:

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it is undertaking an overnight treasury offering of class A and preferred shares.

The sales period for this overnight offering will end at 9:00 a.m. (ET) tomorrow, July 27, 2017. The offering is expected to close on or about August 3, 2017 and is subject to certain closing conditions including approval by the TSX.

The class A shares will be offered at a price of $8.00 for a distribution rate of 15.0% on the issue price, and the preferred shares will be offered at a price of $10.00 for a yield to maturity of 5.7%. The closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) for each of the class A and preferred shares on July 25, 2017 was $8.32 and $10.22, respectively. The class A and preferred share offering prices were determined so as to be non-dilutive to the most recently calculated net asset value per unit of the Company (calculated as at July 24, 2017), as adjusted for dividends and certain expenses to be accrued prior to or upon settlement of the offering.

The Company invests in a portfolio of common shares of high quality, large capitalization companies, which have among the highest dividend growth rates of those companies included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of the following 20 companies:

Great-West Lifeco Inc. The Bank of Nova Scotia CI Financial Corp. Shaw Communications Inc.
Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce IGM Financial Inc. TELUS Corporation
Manulife Financial Corporation National Bank of Canada Power Corporation of Canada Canadian Utilities Limited
Sun Life Financial Inc. Royal Bank of Canada BCE Inc. Enbridge Inc.
Bank of Montreal The Toronto-Dominion Bank Rogers Communications Inc. TransCanada Corporation

The investment objectives for the class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 per class A share and to provide the opportunity for growth in the net asset value per class A share.

The investment objectives for the preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions, currently in the amount of $0.13125 per preferred share, and to return the original issue price to holders of preferred shares on the Company’s maturity date (November 28, 2019).

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being led by RBC Capital Markets, CIBC and Scotiabank

The fund’s NAVPU at July 24 was 17.10, so the whole unit offering price of 18.00 is quite anti-dilutive! When the Split Share model works, it really works!

At their last offering, only four months ago they brought in $86-million, and the fund had total assets of $484-million as of June 30, so it’s getting to be quite the size!

I cannot wait, simply cannot wait, until the stock market crashes again and all those myriad holders panic.

Update, 2017-7-27: The offering was a success!

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce a successful overnight treasury offering of class A and preferred shares. Gross proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $74.25 million. The offering is expected to close on or about August 3, 2017 and is subject to certain closing conditions including approval by the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”). The Company has granted the Agents (as defined below) an over-allotment option, exercisable for 30 days following the closing date of the offering, to purchase up to an additional 15% of the number of class A and preferred shares issued at the closing of the offering.

BCE.PR.A / BCE.PR.B Conversion Notice Sent

Wednesday, July 26th, 2017

BCE Inc. has released the conversion notice for BCE.PR.A and a matching notice for BCE.PR.B.

These issues constitute a Strong Pair.

The effective date of the interconversion is 2017-9-1. The deadline for instructing the company to convert shares is 2017-8-22 – but note that brokers serving the public will probably have internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this. The new dividend rate on BCE.PR.A will be published 2017-8-9.

At the last conversion opportunity in 2012 there was minimal net conversion and the shares outstanding were split almost evenly between BCE.PR.A and BCE.PR.B. The outstanding shares of BCE.PR.A have paid 3.45% since then. Prime was at 3.00% when the last conversion was effective … just 5bp higher than the current rate!

These shares are trading at very nearly the same price … alas, there isn’t much of an arbitrage possibility here!

S&P Downgrades CU and CIU

Tuesday, July 25th, 2017

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •We are lowering our long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Calgary, Alta.-based ATCO Ltd., and its core subsidiaries Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU Ltd.) and CU Inc., to ‘A-‘ from ‘A’.
  • •As well, we are downgrading the company’s preferred shares to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB+’.
  • •Because we consider CU Ltd. and CU Inc. core to ATCO under our group rating methodology, we have equalized the ratings on the subsidiaries with those on the parent.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our view that the company’s credit metrics are forecast to be within the thresholds for the ‘A-‘ rating.


The downgrade reflects credit metrics that we forecast will continue to be weak in the medium term. Historically, ATCO’s credit metrics have been quite robust with funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt in the high teens. Over the past few years, these metrics have declined as the company embarked on a significant capital program. While the large capital program is abating, we forecast continued weakness as ATCO embarks on further capital spending. Overall, we believe that management will continue to operate the company in line with its conservative corporate strategy and consistent track record. However, we continue to forecast credit metrics at the mid-to-lower end of the significant financial risk category, with FFO-to-debt of 13%-14% for both 2017 and 2018. A significant contributor to the stressed credit metrics is construction of the Edmonton to Fort McMurray transmission line, which will continue to pressure credit metrics in the medium term. In addition, a continued weak Alberta operating environment is affecting metrics. While the conversion to a capacity market may present some opportunities for the company, the ultimate impact of these changes is unknown. Accordingly, we do not believe there is a continued rationale for the one-notch uplift that we historically linked to strong credit metrics.

The stable outlook on ATCO continues to reflect S&P Global Ratings’ view of a stable and consistent cash flow from predominately regulated utilities as well as good operating performance. Although credit metrics will be weak during the outlook period with AFFO-to-debt forecast of about 13% in 2017, we believe that once the Edmonton to Fort McMurray transmission line is finished in 2019, credit metrics will improve to about 15%.

All affected instruments were downgraded from P-2(high) to P-2.

Affected instruments are:

CIU.PR.A, CIU.PR.C

CU.PR.C, CU.PR.D, CU.PR.E, CU.PR.F, CU.PR.G, CU.PR.H and CU.PR.I.

Update, 2017-7-25: DBRS confirms at Pfd-2(high):

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the Issuer Rating and Unsecured Debentures rating of Canadian Utilities Limited (CU, the Company or Holdco) at “A,” the Commercial Paper rating at R-1 (low) and the Cumulative Preferred Shares Rating at Pfd-2 (high). All trends are Stable. The confirmations reflect solid financial performance at CU’s sizable and diversified regulated subsidiaries, stable regulations in Alberta and Australia, and modest and manageable exposure in the higher-risk non-regulated business. DBRS includes a one-notch uplift in the rating of Cumulative Preferred Shares issued, largely because of low non-consolidated leverage and strong cash balances supported by the Company’s liquidity policy.

CU’s consolidated financial profile strengthened in 2016 and improved further in the first half of 2017. The consolidated debt in capital structure remained stable at 60%, which is supportive of the current rating for the holding company, which has approximately 84% of consolidated earnings from regulated subsidiaries. Consolidated cash flow-to-debt and consolidated interest coverage improved over the past 18 months, reflecting (1) incremental cash flow from substantial investments in the regulated business at CU Inc. (CUI; 100% owned by CU; rated A (high) by DBRS) in the 2012–2015 period and (2) solid contribution from the regulated gas distribution business in Australia. Liquidity remains strong as CU is expected to maintain material cash balances of around $400 million to $500 million over the next several years.

From a non-consolidated perspective, CU’s non-consolidated financial profile remained solid in 2016, underpinned by the following factors: (1) low non-consolidated leverage at around 13% and (2) a strong cash flow-to-non-consolidated debt ratio. DBRS notes that the debt issued by the Holdco is structurally subordinated to the debt issued by CUI and its other subsidiaries. However, the structural subordination is somewhat mitigated by the sizable and well-diversified operations.

DBRS notes that CU’s business risk profile is negatively affected by the higher risk of its non-regulated business, which consists mostly of power generation in Alberta and Australia. The non-regulated business faces several major risks, such as power price volatility, reconstructing risk and regulatory risk in Alberta. However, DBRS recognizes that these risks are partially mitigated by power contractual arrangements and the relatively small scale of non-regulated activities. For the full year 2017, it is estimated that non-regulated operations will only account for 12% of assets and 14% of consolidated cash flow. In addition, the debt issued by non-regulated subsidiaries (except non-recourse debt at the project level) accounted for only 1% of consolidated debt at June 30, 2017.

CU owns an 80% interest in the Alberta Power Line (APL) Project, a 500-kilometre transmission line between the Wabamun and Fort McMurray areas. Costs for the APL Project are estimated at $1.4 billion, of which $1.2 billion will be financed through non-recourse project debt. CU intends to fund its equity portion through excess cash from operations and its Dividend Reinvestment Program (DRIP). DBRS does not expect the funding of the APL Project to have a material impact on CU’s credit metrics during the construction.

DBRS is of a view that there is a limited opportunity for the rating to move up. However, the following factors, if they occur, could pressure the current “A” rating: (1) a material increase in consolidated and non-consolidated leverage, (2) a significant increase in non-regulated operations, or (3) adverse changes in regulation in Alberta that negatively affect the rating of CUI.