Archive for May, 2019

MFC.PR.L To Reset To 3.78600%

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced:

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 15 (the “Series 15 Preferred Shares”) (TSX: MFC.PR.L) and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class 1 Shares Series 16 (the “Series 16 Preferred Shares”).

With respect to any Series 15 Preferred Shares that remain outstanding after June 19, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive fixed rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife and subject to the provisions of the Insurance Companies Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on June 20, 2019, and ending on June 19, 2024, will be 3.78600% per annum or $0.236625 per share per quarter, being equal to the sum of the five-year Government of Canada bond yield as at May 21, 2019, plus 2.16%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 15 Preferred Shares.

With respect to any Series 16 Preferred Shares that may be issued on June 19, 2019 in connection with the conversion of the Series 15 Preferred Shares into the Series 16 Preferred Shares, holders thereof will be entitled to receive floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, calculated on the basis of actual number of days elapsed in each quarterly floating rate period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife and subject to the provisions of the Insurance Companies Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the three-month period commencing on June 20, 2019, and ending on September 19, 2019, will be 0.96688% (3.83600% on an annualized basis) or $0.241720 per share, being equal to the sum of the three-month Government of Canada Treasury bill yield as at May 21, 2019, plus 2.16%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 16 Preferred Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series 15 Preferred Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right before 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 4, 2019. The news release announcing such conversion right was issued on May 6, 2019 and can be viewed on SEDAR or Manulife’s website. Conversion inquiries should be directed to Manulife’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, AST Trust Company (Canada), at 1‑800-783-9495.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 16 Preferred Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 16 Preferred Shares is subject to Manulife fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series 16 Preferred Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “MFC.PR.S”.

MFC.PR.L is a FixedReset, 3.90%+216, that commenced trading 2014-2-25 after being announced 2014-2-18. The extension was announced 2019-5-7. As it is issued by an Insurance Holding Company and is not compliant with the banks’ NVCC rules, I have added a “Deemed Maturity” entry to the call schedule, which was adjusted in December 2018 to 20130-1-31, at 25.00. MFC.PR.L is tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedReset – Insurance Non-NVCC subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., MFC.PR.L and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190521
Click for Big

The market has regained a little enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +1.35% and +1.54%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the MFC.PR.L FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for MFC.PR.L) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
MFC.PR.L 17.45 216bp 17.82 17.32 16.83

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade close to the price of their FixedReset counterparts, MFC.PR.L. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of MFC.PR.L determine whether or not to convert based on their own portfolio considerations and forecast for policy rates, but I will wait until it’s closer to the June 4 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

ENB.PR.T : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019

Enbridge Inc. has announced (on May 17):

that none of Enbridge’s outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares, Series R (Series R Shares) will be converted into Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares, Series S of Enbridge (Series S Shares) on June 1, 2019.

After taking into account all conversion notices received from holders of its outstanding Series R Shares by the May 17, 2019 deadline for the conversion of the Series R Shares into Series S Shares, less than the 1,000,000 Series R Shares required to give effect to conversions into Series S Shares were tendered for conversion.

ENB.PR.T is a FixedReset, 4.00%+250, that commenced trading 2012-12-5 after being announced 2012-11-26. It will reset At 4.073% effective June 1, 2019. I recommended against conversion. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

PPL.PR.E : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has announced:

that none of Pembina’s Cumulative Redeemable Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series 5 (“Series 5 Shares”) (TSX: PPL.PR.E) will be converted into Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares, Series 6 of Pembina (“Series 6 Shares”) on June 3, 2019.

After taking into account all conversion notices received from holders of its outstanding Series 5 Shares by the May 17, 2019 deadline for the conversion of the Series 5 Shares into Series 6 Shares, less than the 1,000,000 Series 5 Shares required to give effect to conversions into Series 6 Shares were tendered for conversion.

PPL.PR.E is a FixedReset, 5.00%+300, that commenced trading 2014-1-16 after being announced 2014-1-7. It will reset At 4.573% effective June 1, 2019. I recommended against conversion. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset Discount index on credit concerns.

May 21, 2019

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019

Canadian bond yields rose dramatically today with the five-year Canada bond yield up 8bp to 1.65%. This may be related to a decrease in trade tensions:

The Canadian dollar strengthened to an 11-day high against the greenback on Tuesday as investors calculated that the threat of trade uncertainty would ease for Canada even as they ramped up on countries with close economic links to China.

Signs that Asia is already feeling the pinch from a trade conflict between the United States and China pushed the U.S. dollar to a four-week high against a basket of major currencies.

Investors have worried that U.S. restrictions on Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co Ltd could lead to an escalation in the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Meanwhile, the United States has agreed to lift tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland has since said that Canada will move quickly to ratify the new North American trade pact, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.

Or maybe not. Who knows?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1920 % 2,069.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1920 % 3,796.5
Floater 5.68 % 6.02 % 49,293 13.80 3 0.1920 % 2,187.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4435 % 3,297.8
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.85 % 82,009 4.24 7 0.4435 % 3,938.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4435 % 3,072.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.53 % 2.96 % 85,816 0.09 12 -0.0362 % 2,952.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.43 % 5.45 % 71,934 14.75 20 -0.1232 % 3,108.6
FixedReset Disc 5.28 % 5.44 % 151,288 14.86 63 0.2205 % 2,176.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.22 % 5.81 % 95,400 8.04 27 0.1769 % 3,084.2
FloatingReset 3.96 % 4.30 % 44,569 2.58 4 0.0895 % 2,412.3
FixedReset Prem 5.11 % 3.84 % 242,759 2.10 21 0.0464 % 2,589.3
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 4.01 % 153,976 2.60 3 0.0973 % 2,649.4
FixedReset Ins Non 5.08 % 6.75 % 93,907 8.23 22 0.4653 % 2,237.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 14.70
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 22.21
Evaluated at bid price : 22.53
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.82
Bid-YTW : 8.82 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 22.23
Evaluated at bid price : 22.74
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 7.89 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
PVS.PR.E SplitShare 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 13.01
Evaluated at bid price : 13.01
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 6.53 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 7.57 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 8.05 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 17.86
Evaluated at bid price : 17.86
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.B FixedReset Prem 121,215 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc 54,023 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 18.14
Evaluated at bid price : 18.14
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 29,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 26,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc 25,670 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 22.12
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 24,516 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.89
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.07 – 23.79
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.5114

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.07
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %

BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.01 – 18.46
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.2778

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.70 – 23.19
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3405

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-21
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 18.05 – 18.55
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3611

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 8.06 %

IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 21.34 – 21.90
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.4282

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 14.88 – 15.30
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.3292

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.88
Bid-YTW : 9.62 %

May 17, 2019

Friday, May 17th, 2019
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5517 % 2,065.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5517 % 3,789.2
Floater 5.69 % 6.05 % 50,994 13.76 3 0.5517 % 2,183.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0227 % 3,283.2
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.95 % 81,498 4.25 7 -0.0227 % 3,920.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0227 % 3,059.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.52 % 3.79 % 87,121 0.09 12 0.0857 % 2,953.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.42 % 5.40 % 72,417 14.80 20 0.4751 % 3,112.4
FixedReset Disc 5.29 % 5.40 % 149,209 14.87 63 0.0858 % 2,171.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.23 % 5.89 % 96,003 8.04 27 0.2725 % 3,078.8
FloatingReset 3.96 % 4.30 % 45,217 2.60 4 0.1281 % 2,410.2
FixedReset Prem 5.11 % 3.77 % 246,227 2.11 21 -0.0352 % 2,588.1
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 3.98 % 153,026 2.61 3 -0.0278 % 2,646.8
FixedReset Ins Non 5.10 % 6.75 % 95,807 8.24 22 0.0722 % 2,226.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 18.95
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 7.71 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 22.40
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 22.44
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 20.43
Evaluated at bid price : 20.43
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 14.90
Evaluated at bid price : 14.90
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 11.55
Evaluated at bid price : 11.55
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.59
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 148,717 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 37,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 11.55
Evaluated at bid price : 11.55
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc 30,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 22.86
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 21,550 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 17,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.67
Bid-YTW : 8.88 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 15,550 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
There were 5 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.21 – 20.65
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2988

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 20.21
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.86 – 20.22
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2508

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 19.86
Evaluated at bid price : 19.86
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.03 – 20.50
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3656

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 21.57 – 21.88
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2059

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.57
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %

MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.58 – 20.88
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2007

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.58
Bid-YTW : 6.71 %

TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.12 – 17.45
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2432

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-17
Maturity Price : 17.12
Evaluated at bid price : 17.12
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %

CPX.PR.K Firm on Adequate Volume

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

Capital Power Corporation has announced:

that it has closed its previously announced offering of 6,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Preference Shares, Series 11 (the “Series 11 Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per Series 11 Share for aggregate gross proceeds of $150 million on a bought deal basis with a syndicate of underwriters, co-led by TD Securities Inc. and RBC Capital Markets.

The Series 11 Shares will pay fixed cumulative dividends of $1.4375 per share per annum, yielding 5.75% per annum, payable on the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year, as and when declared by the board of directors of Capital Power, for the initial period ending June 30, 2024. With an issue date of May 16, 2019, the first quarterly dividend of $0.1772 per share is expected to be paid on June 30, 2019 (with actual payment to be made on June 28, 2019, being the last business day of June 2019). The dividend rate will be reset on June 30, 2024 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield and 4.15%, provided that, in any event, such rate shall not be less than 5.75%. The Series 11 Shares are redeemable by Capital Power, at its option, on June 30, 2024 and on June 30 of every fifth year thereafter.

Holders of Series 11 Shares will have the right to convert all or any part of their shares into Cumulative Floating Rate Preference Shares, Series 12 (the “Series 12 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on June 30, 2024 and every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 12 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.15%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Capital Power.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned a rating of P-3 for the Series 11 Shares and DBRS Limited has assigned a rating of Pfd-3 (low) for the Series 11 Shares.

The Series 11 Shares will begin trading today on the TSX under the symbol CPX.PR.K.

CPX.PR.K is a FixedReset 5.75%+415M575 issue announced May 7. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

The issue traded 364,660 shares today in a range of 24.76-97 before closing at 24.97-98. Vital statistics are:

CPX.PR.K FixedReset Disc YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %

Given that CPX has six FixedReset issues, including this one, of which three have no floor (CPX.PR.A, CPX.PR.C and CPX.PR.E) and three do (CPX.PR.G, CPX.PR.I and CPX.PR.K), it is difficult to obtain any meaning from a volatility analysis. However, I will note that CPX.PR.I, a FixedReset, 5.75%+412M575, that commenced trading 2017-8-9 after being announced 2017-7-27, has near-identical terms and closed today at 25.04-07 to yield 5.74%-5.74%, while CPX.PR.A, a FixedReset, 3.06%+217, that commenced trading 2010-12-16 with a 4.60% dividend after being announced 2010-12-1, and reset to 3.06% effective 2015-12-31, is now quoted at 13.77-80 to yield 6.81-6.79%. I find it very difficult to believe that the dividend floor is worth a full point of yield, even before considering the additional call risk of the new issue.

LB.PR.H To Reset At 4.123%

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

Laurentian Bank of Canada has announced:

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-Cumulative Class A Preferred Shares, Series 13 (the “Preferred Shares Series 13”) and Non-Cumulative Class A Preferred Shares, Series 14 (the “Preferred Shares Series 14”).

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 13 that remain outstanding after June 17, 2019, being the first business day following the conversion date of June 15, 2019, identified in the prospectus supplement dated March 27, 2014 relating to the issuance of the Preferred Shares Series 13, which falls on a Saturday, holders thereof will be entitled to receive fixed rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank and subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on June 15, 2019, and ending on June 14, 2024, will be 4.123% per annum, being equal to the sum of the five-year Government of Canada bond yield as at May 16, 2019, plus 2.55%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 13.

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 14 that may be issued on June 17, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days elapsed in each quarterly floating rate period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank and subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the three-month period commencing on June 15, 2019, and ending on September 14, 2019, will be 4.226% on an annualized basis, being equal to the sum of the three-month Government of Canada Treasury bill yield as at May 16, 2019, plus 2.55%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 14.

Beneficial owners of Preferred Shares Series 13 who wish to exercise their right of conversion should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right before 5:00 p.m. (Montreal time) on May 31, 2019. Conversion inquiries should be directed to the Bank’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, Computershare Investor Services Inc., at 1-800-564-6253.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Preferred Shares Series 14 effective upon conversion. Listing of the Preferred Shares Series 14 subject to the Bank fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Preferred Shares Series 14 will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “LB.PR.I”.

LB.PR.H is a NVCC-compliant FixedReset, 4.30%+255, that commenced trading 2014-4-3 after being announced 2014-3-25. The extension was announced 2019-5-7. This issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps FixedReset-Discount subindex on credit concerns.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., LB.PR.H and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190516
Click for Big

The market has regained a little enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +1.27% and +1.48%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the LB.PR.H FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for LB.PR.H) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 2.00% 1.50% 1.00%
LB.PR.H 16.90 255bp 17.31 16.83 16.34

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade close to the price of their FixedReset counterparts, LB.PR.H. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of LB.PR.H determine whether or not to convert based on their own portfolio considerations and forecast for policy rates, but I will wait until it’s closer to the May 31 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

May 16, 2019

Thursday, May 16th, 2019
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8906 % 2,053.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8906 % 3,768.4
Floater 5.72 % 6.07 % 47,292 13.73 3 0.8906 % 2,171.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1473 % 3,284.0
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.96 % 78,238 4.25 7 -0.1473 % 3,921.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1473 % 3,059.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.53 % 3.62 % 87,723 0.09 12 -0.0066 % 2,951.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.46 % 71,860 14.59 20 -0.0066 % 3,097.7
FixedReset Disc 5.29 % 5.41 % 150,309 14.90 63 0.0957 % 2,169.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.24 % 5.92 % 97,232 8.03 27 0.1730 % 3,070.4
FloatingReset 3.97 % 4.28 % 47,077 2.60 4 0.2697 % 2,407.1
FixedReset Prem 5.11 % 3.81 % 250,081 2.12 21 0.0501 % 2,589.0
FixedReset Bank Non 1.98 % 3.96 % 159,207 2.61 3 -0.1665 % 2,647.5
FixedReset Ins Non 5.10 % 6.80 % 97,487 8.24 22 0.3036 % 2,225.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 11.55
Evaluated at bid price : 11.55
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 13.30
Evaluated at bid price : 13.30
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
IFC.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 14.78
Evaluated at bid price : 14.78
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.64
Evaluated at bid price : 20.64
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
IFC.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non 1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.89
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 84,143 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Prem 59,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 57,326 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 18.78
Evaluated at bid price : 18.78
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 51,785 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.43
Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Bank Non 51,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc 38,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
There were 17 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.20 – 20.80
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4016

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %

EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.50 – 19.04
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3748

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %

NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.50 – 17.88
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2279

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %

BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.17 – 20.69
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3807

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-16
Maturity Price : 20.17
Evaluated at bid price : 20.17
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.40 – 23.80
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2793

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.44 – 21.79
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2326

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %

BMO.PR.S : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

Bank of Montreal has announced:

that none of its 20 million Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class B Preferred Shares, Series 27 (the “Preferred Shares Series 27”) will be converted on May 27, 2019, being the first business day following the conversion date of May 25, 2019, into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Class B Preferred Shares, Series 28 of the Bank (the “Preferred Shares Series 28”).

During the conversion period which ran from April 25, 2019 to May 10, 2019, 412,564 Preferred Shares Series 27 were tendered for conversion into Preferred Shares Series 28, which is less than the minimum 1,000,000 required to give effect to the conversion, as described in the Preferred Shares Series 27 prospectus supplement dated April 16, 2014. As a result, no Preferred Shares Series 28 will be issued on May 27, 2019 and holders of Preferred Shares Series 27 will retain their shares.

The Preferred Shares Series 27 are currently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol BMO.PR.S. As previously announced on April 25, 2019, the dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on May 25, 2019, and ending on May 24, 2024, will be 3.852 per cent.

BMO.PR.S is a FixedReset, 4.00%+233, NVCC-compliant issue that commenced trading 2014-4-23 after being announced 2014-4-14. The issue will reset At 3.852% effective May 25, 2019. I recommended against conversion. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset-Discount Sub-Index.

RY.PR.Z : No Conversion To FloatingReset

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

Royal Bank of Canada has announced (on May 14):

that, during the conversion notice period which ran from April 24, 2019 to May 9, 2019, 647,939 Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC) Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series AZ (the “Series AZ shares”) were elected for conversion, on a one-for-one basis, into NVCC Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series BA (the “Series BA shares”). As per the conditions set out in the prospectus supplement dated January 23, 2014, since less than 1,000,000 Series BA shares would be outstanding after May 24, 2019, holders of Series AZ shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series BA shares. As a result, Series BA shares will not be issued at this time.

On May 24, 2019, Royal Bank of Canada will have 20,000,000 Series AZ shares issued and outstanding. The Series AZ shares are currently listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol RY.PR.Z.

RY.PR.Z is a NVCC-compliant FixedReset, 4.00%+221, that commenced trading 2014-1-30 after being announced 2014-1-21. The extension was announced 2019-4-12. The issue will reset At 3.700% effective May 24, 2019. I recommended against conversion. This issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset-Discount subindex.