May 25, 2012

Cheerful Greek thoughts from the Institute of International Finance (aka the Bankers’ Club):

The cost of Greece exiting the euro would be unmanageable and probably exceed the 1 trillion euros ($1.25 trillion) previously estimated by the Institute of International Finance, the group’s managing director said.

The Washington-based IIF’s projection from earlier this year is “a bit dated now” and “probably on the low side,” Charles Dallara said in an interview in Rome today. “Those who think that Europe, and more broadly the global economy, are really prepared for a Greek exit should think again.”

The European Central Bank’s exposure to Greek liabilities is more than twice as big as the ECB’s capital, said Dallara, who represented banks in their negotiations with the Greek government on its debt restructuring. As a result, he predicted the bank would be unable to provide liquidity and stabilize the euro-area financial sector.

For Greece, in its fifth year of recession, it may be more effective to offer extra money to help its battered economy recover, Dallara said. Because Greece’s economy has shrunk so much faster than expected, it may need more time to meet its budget targets and repay its international loans, he said.

Greece’s shrinking economy could be aided “at a cost” of an additional 10 billion euros. “We’re talking about very modest sums compared to what’s already on the table,” he said.

It was a mildly positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 1bp, FixedResets up 12bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 14bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was well below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0372 % 2,465.3
FixedFloater 4.44 % 3.81 % 29,689 17.69 1 0.0000 % 3,551.2
Floater 2.93 % 2.95 % 68,910 19.80 3 -0.0372 % 2,661.9
OpRet 4.80 % 2.88 % 44,534 1.06 5 0.0000 % 2,501.2
SplitShare 5.27 % -5.77 % 51,696 0.56 4 0.3742 % 2,709.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,287.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.46 % 2.36 % 72,175 0.63 25 0.0110 % 2,227.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.12 % 5.25 % 82,858 14.98 8 -0.4084 % 2,422.8
FixedReset 5.05 % 3.17 % 189,041 2.33 69 0.1248 % 2,393.3
Deemed-Retractible 4.98 % 3.52 % 170,986 1.90 45 0.1367 % 2,316.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-05-25
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-05-25
Maturity Price : 22.54
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-05-25
Maturity Price : 23.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 3.17 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 3.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 128,885 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
NA.PR.K Deemed-Retractible 97,138 TD crossed 48,000 at 25.50; Desjardins crossed 25,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-06-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.46
Bid-YTW : -13.92 %
RY.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 77,685 TD crossed blocks of 40,000 and 25,000, both at 25.67.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 66,976 Nesbitt crossed 56,400 at 23.76.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 63,403 Nesbitt crossed 56,400 at 22.76. Gee, I wonder if that’s related to the cross in SLF.PR.A, above!
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 59,665 National crossed 48,400 at 26.62.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.63
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %
There were 19 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.78 – 26.30
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.4548

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.78
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 25.06 – 25.24
Spot Rate : 0.1800
Average : 0.1173

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-05-25
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.87 – 26.30
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3678

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.87
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %

BNA.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 22.81 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1326

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.81
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %

RY.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 25.64 – 25.87
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1786

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.64
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %

GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.95 – 26.09
Spot Rate : 0.1400
Average : 0.0986

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %

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