August 16, 2013

The Great White Short?:

Foreign investors went on an unprecedented selling spree of Canadian bonds in June, offering further evidence of Canada’s fading international appeal.

A record $19-billion decline in foreign-held bonds, more than double the previous high set a decade ago, slashed what has become a reliable source of investment driven by Canada’s stellar reputation for financial outperformance.

Recent years saw a consistent net inflow of foreign funds into Canadian securities in excess of $100-billion annually. But of late, the global investing community has grown leery of Canadian real estate, slowing growth and vulnerability to softening commodity prices. Hedge funds lined up to bet against Canada – the trade dubbed the Great White Short.

Over the first half of this year, net spending on Canadian bonds by non-residents amount to $16-billion, “a fraction of the net inflow chalked up during the first half of each of the prior five years,” Warren Lovely, an economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a research note.

The Canadian dollar would certainly feel the effect of any sustained deterioration in the demand for Canadian bonds. That relationship could also help explain some of the dramatic currency volatility seen from mid-June to early July, when the Canadian dollar dropped by four cents against its U.S. counterpart, [chief currency strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia] Ms. [Camilla] Sutton said.

Just in time for Christmas:

Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) will introduce a wristwatch-like device named the Galaxy Gear next month that can make phone calls, surf the Web and handle e-mails, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The Galaxy Gear will be powered by Google Inc.’s Android operating system and go on sale this year to beat a potentially competing product from Apple Inc. (AAPL), the people said.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 3bp, FixedResets gaining 5bp and DeemedRetractibles down 22bp. The performance highlights table is as lengthy as we have come to expect recently: insurers are notable on the losers’ end, but somebody has decided they really, really like BAM! Volume was well above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0292 % 2,630.5
FixedFloater 4.37 % 3.66 % 30,706 18.04 1 1.6355 % 3,801.7
Floater 2.56 % 2.89 % 71,469 19.97 5 -0.0292 % 2,840.2
OpRet 4.68 % 4.37 % 73,409 2.82 3 -0.2633 % 2,597.0
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.88 % 53,787 4.12 6 -0.2333 % 2,947.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2633 % 2,374.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.78 % 5.85 % 96,831 14.09 12 -0.2971 % 2,243.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.71 % 5.79 % 152,002 14.20 25 -0.0325 % 2,259.7
FixedReset 5.03 % 3.85 % 241,222 7.06 85 0.0516 % 2,420.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.26 % 5.28 % 200,676 6.96 43 -0.2231 % 2,300.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.47
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 20.79
Evaluated at bid price : 20.79
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 20.98
Evaluated at bid price : 20.98
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 24.38
Evaluated at bid price : 24.84
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 21.64
Evaluated at bid price : 21.64
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.77
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 23.05
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.29
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 19.98
Evaluated at bid price : 19.98
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 19.58
Evaluated at bid price : 19.58
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.68
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 19.92
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.T FixedReset 106,136 TD crossed blocks of 69,900 and 30,000, both at 25.88.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.88
Bid-YTW : 2.63 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 47,700 TD bought 10,000 from National at 20.71.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.66
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset 45,848 TD crossed 40,000 at 25.28.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.29
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
SLF.PR.F FixedReset 39,900 TD crossed 25,000 at 25.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BNS.PR.X FixedReset 38,575 TD crossed 30,000 at 25.67.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 32,372 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
There were 46 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 21.70 – 22.49
Spot Rate : 0.7900
Average : 0.4631

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %

TD.PR.O Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.43 – 24.98
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3305

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.43
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 25.16 – 25.92
Spot Rate : 0.7600
Average : 0.5582

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 25.25 – 25.79
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3386

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.79 – 21.30
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.3773

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-08-16
Maturity Price : 20.79
Evaluated at bid price : 20.79
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 23.75 – 24.30
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.4427

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

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