October 22, 2013

Buffet is discussing regulation again following the latest round of regulatory extortion:

Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), said JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has little room to bargain as regulators probe the sale of faulty mortgage bonds.

“If you’re a financial institution and you’re threatened with criminal prosecution, you have no ability to negotiate,” Buffett told Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu in an interview today. “Basically, you’ve got to be like a wolf that bares its throat, you know, when it gets to the end. You cannot win.”

Dimon reached a tentative $13 billion settlement to resolve civil disputes between JPMorgan and the U.S. government. The bank won’t be released from criminal liabilities, according to a person familiar with the talks who asked not to be identified because they were private. Some of the practices under the probe relate to Bear Stearns Cos. and Washington Mutual, which JPMorgan bought in 2008 as the housing bubble burst.

The delayed September jobs number was anemic:

Employers in the U.S. added fewer workers to payrolls than projected in September, indicating the world’s largest economy had little momentum leading up to the federal government shutdown.

The addition of 148,000 workers followed a revised 193,000 gain in August that was larger than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 180,000 advance. Unemployment fell to 7.2 percent, the lowest level since November 2008.

Stocks and Treasuries climbed as the report supported expectations that the Federal Reserve won’t hurry to reduce the monthly bond purchases aimed at spurring growth and employment. Progress in the labor market depends on how quickly the economy can bounce back from the loss of business and confidence caused by the budget battles in Washington.

Mark Zelmer of OSFI gave a speech titled Simplicity and Supervision: Rules are not enough in New York today. Not very interesting; there may be some nuances about modelling that will be of interest to specialists. It will be remembered that OSFI has no expertise in critiquing models whatsoever. Tim Kiladze of the Globe claims it’s a regulatory scuffle:

Canada’s top banking watchdog is pushing back against a growing chorus of global regulators who want to simplify the way that banks calculate their capital cushions.

Now the Basel Committee is considering proposals to monitor simple metrics such as non-performing assets to total assets, historical profit volatility and the leverage ratio. But while OSFI, the top Canadian regulator, agrees that it can be hard to compare risk models across banks, it is strongly urging its peers not to undo a good chunk of the past five years of work. “Simplifying the rule book will not change the game,” deputy superintendent Mark Zelmer said at a conference Tuesday.

The regulator may have been keeping mum on the issue because Canada’s banks capital levels arguably don’t look as strong under the leverage ratio. Now that other major countries, like the United States, are floating ideas to surpass the Basel III minimums under the leverage ratio, OSFI is speaking up in favour of its preferred method of regulation

There is muttering about a possible Global Housing Bubble Redux:

In Germany, the Bundesbank has warned about rising prices that are “difficult to justify based on fundamental factors,” like demographics or economic expansion. The central bank observed that apartment prices in key urban centres have jumped by more than 25 per cent in the past three years – and a whopping 80 per cent in Berlin – which could spark “fears of a broad-based property price boom.”

In China, concerted government efforts to take the air out of the bubble have largely been ineffective, as witnessed by the 9.1 per cent rise in new home prices, the biggest jump in three years. In the largest cities, the increases were in the double digits.

In Britain, which is still digging its way out of recession, average prices climbed the most in three years, as mortgage lending reached levels not seen in five years. But there was Jon Cunliffe, newly appointed deputy governor of the Bank of England, telling a parliamentary committee not to worry that the government’s popular Help to Buy mortgage loan scheme might inflate a bubble.

The problem is that so many people consider housing investment to be the sure ticket to riches – and stock market investment to be the road to ruin. Here in Canada, the feds pour fuel on the fire with there reckless expansion of CHMC insurance.

Part of the solution is to make it easier to go public, with the object of allowing people to buy pieces of local business that they recognize; that means decreasing regulation.

Of course, in some cases it’s a simple case of supply and demand:

The number of new homes sold in September in the Greater Toronto Area was up four per cent from the same month last year, but 2013 is shaping up to be the weakest year in a decade, according to industry figures.

In the first nine months of this year, there were 19,327 new homes sold in the GTA – 44 per cent below the 10-year average, according RealNet Canada figures released by the Building Industry and Land Development Association.

BILD attributes the weak sales activity to a significant reduction in the supply of land for building, which has pushed up prices.

And I don’t see much hope any time soon for decreased regulation, as extra-judicial punishments increase in popularity:

The yakuza, Japan’s organized-crime syndicates that have reaped billions from activities ranging from extortion to human trafficking, are finding their ranks decimated by authorities employing methods similar to those used to jail Al Capone: going after their money.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency delivered the latest blow, last month ordering Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411) to improve compliance and then demanding that top executives report by Oct. 28 what they knew and when about a consumer-credit affiliate found making loans to crime groups.

While the gangs themselves aren’t illegal in Japan, violating the exclusion ordinances — which also require customers seeking financial and other services to attest to non-association with a criminal enterprise — could come with a fine of 500,000 yen ($5,080) or a year in jail.

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 21bp, FixedResets gaining 7bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 24bp. A fairly lengthy performance highlights table is dominated by winners. Volume was above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7449 % 2,473.0
FixedFloater 4.28 % 3.55 % 26,818 18.32 1 0.2708 % 3,926.0
Floater 2.73 % 2.97 % 63,787 19.79 5 0.7449 % 2,670.1
OpRet 4.62 % 2.34 % 64,854 0.43 3 0.0000 % 2,643.2
SplitShare 4.77 % 5.25 % 66,127 3.98 6 0.0206 % 2,942.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,417.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.81 % 3.76 % 108,652 0.08 7 0.1594 % 2,286.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.54 % 5.58 % 167,442 14.36 30 0.2074 % 2,350.2
FixedReset 4.98 % 3.66 % 231,275 3.39 85 0.0697 % 2,443.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 4.36 % 188,983 6.70 43 0.2350 % 2,384.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 2.63 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.49
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 90,279 Desjardins bought blocks of 17,200 and 54,400 from National, both at 22.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 22.68
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 70,418 RBC crossed 50,000 at 23.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 23.33
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium 67,469 Scotia crossed 60,000 at 25.35.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 64,475 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 25,000 each, both at 25.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.50 %
TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 55,033 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 25,000 each, both at 26.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-11-21
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.08
Bid-YTW : 0.02 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 44,206 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.86 – 21.30
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.2844

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 20.13 – 20.51
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2459

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.38 – 25.74
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2751

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.38
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 19.45 – 19.79
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2595

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-22
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %

BMO.PR.K Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.98 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1516

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.23 – 25.42
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1264

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %

2 Responses to “October 22, 2013”

  1. Nestor says:

    well, there you have it James. the talking head at the central bank now says the canadian economy is weaker than they predicted, and they’re more likely to cut rates as to raise them.

    let the good times roll

  2. jiHymas says:

    The bond market’s on a tear today (ten year yield down 5bp), but the news doesn’t seem to have percolated down to the preferred share market yet.

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