September 26, 2016

Mark Gilbert of Bloomberg writes about his experience playing a game published by the Fed:

The San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve has a game on its website that lets you play at being Chair of the Federal Reserve. After tinkering with it, I’ve come to some conclusions: Modeling the economy is a mug’s game, short-term interest rates are a poor tool for steering the economy, and I should never be given the job of running a central bank.

The website sets out the objectives:

Your job is to set monetary policy to achieve full employment and low price inflation. Your term will last four years (16 quarters). Keep unemployment close to its natural rate of 5 percent. Keep inflation near the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. Pay attention to the headlines for information about the economy.

Here’s how I did:

ChairtheFedGame_160926
Click for Big
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1783 % 1,695.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1783 % 3,098.0
Floater 4.88 % 4.62 % 87,257 16.20 4 -0.1783 % 1,785.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,880.8
SplitShare 5.05 % 4.67 % 80,091 2.16 5 0.0000 % 3,440.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,684.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % 4.65 % 62,963 1.95 12 0.0098 % 2,686.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.13 % 5.13 % 87,257 15.00 26 0.0934 % 2,908.9
FixedReset 4.98 % 4.27 % 148,525 6.98 92 0.1106 % 2,045.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 4.77 % 112,122 1.21 32 0.0789 % 2,799.3
FloatingReset 2.86 % 4.47 % 32,969 4.97 12 -0.1054 % 2,191.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 15.38
Evaluated at bid price : 15.38
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 13.38
Evaluated at bid price : 13.38
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 233,115 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 65,768 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.76
Bid-YTW : 6.87 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 43,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 40,516 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 37,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.59
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 36,560 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-10-26
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : -1.26 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 15.34 – 15.63
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1960

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.34
Bid-YTW : 9.55 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 20.00 – 20.26
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1800

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 11.88 – 12.14
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1946

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 11.88
Evaluated at bid price : 11.88
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.64 – 25.84
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1348

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.64
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 18.36 – 18.70
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2801

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 18.36
Evaluated at bid price : 18.36
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 19.15 – 19.42
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.2122

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-09-26
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %

5 Responses to “September 26, 2016”

  1. Louisprefs says:

    Well, I was fired too eventhough I made America great again with opposite results to yours (6.54% inflation; unemployment at 2.05%)… In my final press conference, I proudly stated: “You will miss me!” and I was offered a similar jobs in Europe and Japan… In your teeth, unsatisfiable bunch!

  2. Szeven says:

    Curiously if you set the fed funds rate to 0.25% and let it rip for 4 years, you get inflation of 11% and unemployment of 1.5%.

  3. Louisprefs says:

    … But Szeven too got fired what leads me to believe that this unemployment rate of 1.5% is made of James, myself and him…:)

  4. GAndreone says:

    After more than 5 tries.
    Unemployment 4.03% Inflation 2.86% with a Financial Crisis in the middle.

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