November 27, 2009

Credit Default Swaps are proving to be less predictable than hoped:

Thomson provided the first test of the procedures for settling contracts triggered by a restructuring in Europe when it said in August it was deferring payments on $72.5 million of 6.05 percent private notes due this year.

The system for restructurings uses multiple auctions that set different payouts based on swap expiration dates. Dealers couldn’t settle the Thomson contracts with simpler failure-to- pay procedures that produce one recovery value because they were unable to prove the electronics company defaulted.

Asked in a July conference call with investors whether Thomson still owed the money, Chief Executive Officer Frederic Rose responded, “Since I am not a qualified lawyer, I prefer not to answer that question.” Marine Boulot, a Thomson spokeswoman in Paris, declined to comment.

To determine the size of the payouts on contracts covering $2 billion in debt, bonds and loans were split by maturity date ranges into three so-called buckets and sold at auction.

Contracts that expired on June 20, 2012 — the first bucket’s latest date — sold for 96.25 percent of the face amount, meaning swap holders received 3.75 percent of the amount covered. Swaps expiring a day later paid 34.875 percent because the debt in that bucket went for 65.125 percent.

Holders of June 20 swaps covering 10 million euros in debt got 375,000 euros, while those with June 21 contracts received almost 3.5 million euros. Swaps that terminated after Oct. 24, 2014, paid the most, 36.75 percent.

The disparity was a result of too few securities in the first bucket to settle swaps, according to Matthew Leeming, a London-based strategist at Barclays. “An imbalance of supply and demand for the deliverables can affect the recovery rate,” he said in a note.

Because they were part of industry indexes, swaps referencing the company “dwarfed the amount of Thomson debt,” said Teo Lasarte, an analyst at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.

Canadian preferred shares had a good day, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 9bp and FixedResets up 7bp. Volume was moderate.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6957 % 1,507.4
FixedFloater 6.02 % 4.14 % 41,212 18.62 1 0.5011 % 2,585.9
Floater 2.59 % 3.01 % 92,164 19.65 3 -0.6957 % 1,883.2
OpRet 4.80 % -6.69 % 122,560 0.09 14 0.0736 % 2,312.9
SplitShare 6.31 % -18.14 % 315,272 0.09 2 -0.1304 % 2,128.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0736 % 2,114.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.86 % 5.01 % 126,482 2.39 4 0.0889 % 1,877.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.82 % 5.88 % 183,705 14.03 70 0.0924 % 1,783.1
FixedReset 5.44 % 3.83 % 366,170 3.92 41 0.0727 % 2,146.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 19.42
Evaluated at bid price : 19.42
Bid-YTW : 2.04 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
RY.PR.Y FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.55
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.M FixedReset 185,750 Desjardins crossed blocks of 15,000 and 25,000 at 27.82, and another one of 10,600 at 27.80. TD crossed 124,100 at 27.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.82
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 123,750 TD crossed 120,000 at 26.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 52,150 Nesbitt crossed 44,300 at 13.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 13.20
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 3.01 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 29,999 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 20.13
Evaluated at bid price : 20.13
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 20,785 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BMO.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 20,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-11-27
Maturity Price : 22.93
Evaluated at bid price : 23.09
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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