April 29, 2011

Elections have consequences!

The TMX Group Inc.’ s plan to merge with London Stock Exchange Group Plc wouldn’t get federal government approval if Jack Layton has any say — and polls say that the New Democratic Party leader may have a lot of say after Monday’s federal election.

Speaking Friday as his party surges in popularity, Mr. Layton said he saw too much risk to approve the deal.

“We worry that Canadian business trying to access capital might have greater difficulty. As much as one might want to pretend that nothing will change, we find that hard to believe,” he said, according to Reuters.

But there’s a decent chance the deal will be approved before the new Minister’s office is painted orange:

On Friday TMX Group (X-T40.080.150.38%) and London Stock Exchange Group cast any questions aside by starting the formal application process with federal and provincial authorities regarding their proposed combination.

That means TMX has submitted its application to Investment Canada, which now has 75 days at most to review the proposal. Formal filings with the four provincial regulators who have a say will come in the next few weeks.

It was another mixed and somewhat strange day on the Canadian preferred share market – it appears that the announcement that CM will prioritize preferred share redemptions is having some effect. PerpetualDiscounts gained 20bp, FixedResets were down 4bp and DeemedRetractibles won 44bp. DeemedRetractibles dominated the Performance Highlights table, with a few insurer issues nestled amongst the banks. Volume was good.

And that’s a wrap for another month! Final figures aren’t in yet, but it looks like the overall market was basically flat on the month.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2135 % 2,424.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2135 % 3,646.7
Floater 2.49 % 2.26 % 35,609 21.62 4 0.2135 % 2,618.0
OpRet 4.91 % 3.62 % 58,150 2.05 8 0.0578 % 2,414.9
SplitShare 5.21 % -2.05 % 80,405 0.63 6 0.0022 % 2,495.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0578 % 2,208.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.78 % 5.66 % 123,843 6.12 8 0.0844 % 2,054.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.57 % 5.58 % 144,536 14.41 16 0.2049 % 2,126.9
FixedReset 5.18 % 3.46 % 214,695 2.90 57 -0.0366 % 2,292.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.24 % 5.07 % 317,498 8.13 53 0.4354 % 2,094.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-04-29
Maturity Price : 23.41
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.44
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.46
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.46
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
BNS.PR.K Deemed-Retractible 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 72,205 TD crossed 42,400 at 24.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 43,326 Nesbitt bought 10,000 from anonymous at 26.00; Desjardins crossed 25,000 at 26.02.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 3.07 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 42,719 RBC bought two blocks of 10,000 each from anonymous at 23.50, then crossed 11,000 at 23.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-04-29
Maturity Price : 23.41
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
CM.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 33,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 31,305 Desjardins crossed 10,000 at 27.32.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.35
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 29,723 Desjardins crossed 25,000 at 23.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-04-29
Maturity Price : 22.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.97
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
There were 38 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Quote: 25.60 – 26.18
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4320

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %

TD.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 26.41 – 26.80
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2844

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.73 – 23.05
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2157

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-04-29
Maturity Price : 22.54
Evaluated at bid price : 22.73
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

IAG.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.60 – 25.86
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1640

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %

GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 24.55 – 24.85
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2296

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 19.20 – 19.39
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1263

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-04-29
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %

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