May 13, 2014

Boyd Erman of the Globe comments on the HFT study that I reviewed yesterday:

The Bank of Canada has released a research paper on high-frequency trading that, unfortunately for those looking for a silver bullet that finally answers whether HFT is good or bad, provides ammunition for both sides.

In other words, it gets harder for those who had been in the market to read the new market, and it’s tougher to trade. That’s a tick in the column of the HFT opponents, who say HFT’s constant use of orders and cancellations to try to figure out the market’s direction creates noise that makes it difficult for other investors.

With respect to the “constant use of orders” point … that’s not what the study says. The study says:

Third, following entry by Aggressive HFT firms, those that mainly take liquidity, incumbents experience a loss in their ability to trade in the direction of future price movements.

In contrast, Aggressive HFT strategies are associated with informed trading, since they trade in the direction of future price movements (Biais, Foucault and Moinas 2013; Foucault, Hombert and Rosu 2012; Martinez and Rosu 2013). With more market participants monitoring for arbitrage opportunities, price predictability should decline. We study whether incumbent HFTs are less able to trade in the direction of future price changes.

Aggressive HFT entry decreases the price impact of the most informed incumbents’ trades. The average incumbent price impact decreases on average by 0.3 cents for a trade of $10,000. The first Aggressive entries decrease the incumbents’ price impact by a maximum of 1.3 cents.

Successive HFT entrants have a diminishing effect on incumbents’ informedness. In fact, there is no statistically significant impact after the second event. This suggests that HFTs are less able to predict future prices and that HFT trades are more reflective of short-term information.

The study does not address in any way the order fill-to-cancel ratio.

With respect to the claim that the actual point is “a tick in the column of the HFT opponents” … I don’t understand it. To the extent that directionality on a five-second time scale exists, what does it matter who gets the money? Is this some kind of argument that it’s better for ‘real money’ to make the profit, as opposed to HFT money? The paper itself refers only to incumbent HFT, not to who was exploiting the information beforehand.

I will make exactly the opposite point, that eliminating directionality on a five-second time horizon is actually a point in favour of HFT. We want markets to be efficient – HFT exploits, and eventually eliminates, the inefficiency on a five-second time-scale. Isn’t that good?

This also reduces the penalty for being poorly informed, which I understand is also a hobby-horse of the anti-HFT mob. In the extreme case, we have a single stock on the exchange, bid at say, 25.00-10, and a single ETF (which holds only the single stock). Ignoring frictional costs, we can then say that ideally the ETF will also be quoted at 25.00-10. But then somebody lifts the offer on the stock with a great big bid and the quote on the stock changes to 25.10-20. Then Granny Oakum puts in her market order to sell the ETF … she only gets 25.00 for it. Isn’t it an objective of market designers to assist Granny to get 25.10? Wouldn’t it be a good thing if somebody (an HFT, for instance) whipped an order to buy the ETF in between the big stock trade and Granny’s order, so that Granny makes an extra dime? Naturally, there will always be the chance that Granny’s order follows so swiftly behind the big stock trade that she doesn’t make that dime anyway. But reducing the time for which this obvious discrepancy is effective is a Good Thing for Granny.

The real problem that the anti-HFT crowd has is that the free dime used to be picked up by a big bank trader with a good pedigree and an expensive private school education. Now it’s going to some bum who nobody’s ever heard of, one of the geeks who was always screwing around with computers instead of attending the polo matches like a normal person. BooHooHoo.

My other complaint about today’s offerings from the Globe is Rob Carrick’s column GICs beat laddered bond ETFs, hands down:

A ladder of guaranteed investment certificates is better, as long as you don’t foresee the need to sell your holdings before maturity. Laddered bond ETFs can be bought and sold any time during the trading days, so they win decisively over GICs on liquidity.

If you invest equal amounts in these GICs, thereby creating a five-year ladder, your average yield would be 2.12 per cent.

The iShares 1-5 Year Laddered Government Bond Index Fund (CLF) … net yield of 1.22 per cent.

The iShares 1-5 Year Laddered Corporate Bond Index (CBO) … after-fee-yield of 1.6 per cent

The laddered bond ETF … also offers the possibility of capital gains if interest rates fall, or capital losses if rates rise. Given the flat to rising outlook for rates, losses seem more likely than gains.

So my first objection to this story is in the phrase “you don’t foresee the need to sell your holdings before maturity”. If you don’t foresee that, then why are you holding short-term instruments in the first place? That’s almost certainly just poor portfolio planning. It is possible that you hold the short-term instruments to counter-balance longer-term fixed income (such as the preferred shares that this blog is ostensibly about) – but then you’re frozen into your long-term position as well.

The other objection is “Given the flat to rising outlook for rates, losses seem more likely than gains”, a very common misconception. As I made clear in my article Bond ETFs demystified, there’s no real difference between the two vehicles; the only apparent difference is that an ETF makes visible the opportunity costs of a rise in interest rates that GIC holders like to ignore. Additionally, the objectionable phrase depends upon market timing for its validity and can be ignored solely on those grounds.

The Bank of Canada has released the Bank of Canada Review Spring 2014, with the following articles:

And at the Fed, they’re doing some work on the term premium.

Kevin Carmichael in the Globe comments on Tim Geithner’s book tour:

The European Union now is doing something similar [to the US public stress tests]. We can only wonder what the global economy would be like today if the Europeans had followed Mr. Geithner’s model sooner.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions does one macro stress test a year and ad hoc tests on specific issues as necessary. But the results remain private, shared only with the Bank of Canada to help it with its twice-a-year assessments of the financial system.

Mr. Geithner would disapprove of the secrecy. I didn’t ask him to comment specifically on Canada, but I did ask how important it was that market participants be allowed to see the stress test results. “It’s central,” he said. “You need to let private investors, shareholders and creditors of banks, have enough information that they can better discriminate across institutions. You need to make the loss estimates transparent, you need to make the impact to individual markets transparent, if you are going to allow the markets to provide that form of triage.”

Well, the Europeans eventually did do stress tests, but they were fake, relaxed stress tests, as discussed on July 23, 2010. You only publicize stress tests if you know that the answer is going to be good.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 4bp, FixedResets down 13bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 27bp. The Performance Highlights table is lengthy by recent standards, but balanced with no clear pattern. Volume was above average, with GWO-group issues notable on the Volume Highlights table, presumably due to the GWO new issue.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4260 % 2,456.0
FixedFloater 4.56 % 3.79 % 30,644 17.85 1 0.2404 % 3,768.4
Floater 2.97 % 3.12 % 51,940 19.40 4 0.4260 % 2,651.8
OpRet 4.35 % -6.06 % 33,696 0.14 2 -0.0580 % 2,710.7
SplitShare 4.78 % 4.36 % 65,696 4.17 5 -0.1973 % 3,102.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0580 % 2,478.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.50 % -11.51 % 97,091 0.09 15 0.0609 % 2,405.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.34 % 115,448 14.92 21 -0.0383 % 2,550.6
FixedReset 4.52 % 3.45 % 206,050 4.27 75 -0.1278 % 2,562.9
Deemed-Retractible 4.98 % -2.42 % 143,738 0.12 42 -0.2724 % 2,524.5
FloatingReset 2.65 % 2.33 % 143,946 4.19 6 -0.0330 % 2,494.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.74
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
BNA.PR.E SplitShare -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 2.51 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 23.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.31
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 22.90
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 22.41
Evaluated at bid price : 22.98
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 2.63 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 190,737 Nesbitt crossed 175,000 at 21.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 127,558 RBC crossed two blocks of 60,000 each, both at 24.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 23.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.31
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 109,065 TD crossed 94,100 at 22.63.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 107,674 Nesbitt may have crossed 100,000 at 23.85. The report isn’t clear.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.67
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %

GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 95,131 Nesbitt crossed 80,000 at 23.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.82
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 91,052 Nesbitt crossed 87,000 at 25.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.69
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
There were 42 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 24.31 – 24.63
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2220

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 23.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.31
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.16 – 24.53
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2759

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 23.78
Evaluated at bid price : 24.16
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 26.17 – 26.49
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2268

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %

ENB.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 24.36 – 24.65
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1977

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.21 – 22.65
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3556

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-05-13
Maturity Price : 21.88
Evaluated at bid price : 22.21
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.00 – 26.24
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1596

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %

2 Responses to “May 13, 2014”

  1. Prefhound says:

    Another thing Rob Carrick ALWAYS misses is taxes. Bond ETFs are stuffed with premium bonds which have adverse tax consequences in taxable accounts. Basically, the premium disappears upon maturity, creating a capital loss, which only gets half the tax back that was paid on the premium coupon (assuming tax losses are useable — offset against gains somehow). As a result, the effective tax rate on a Bond ETF these days is between 50 and 75% — and that is after MER! Some GOC short term bonds actually have negative after-tax yields (i.e. effective tax rates >100%). The ETF doesn’t care if those bonds are in the index — it has to buy them.

    So, take XSB the I-shares short term bond ETF as of May 14, 2014: NAV $28.70, Average Term 2.83 years; Coupon 3.01%, Yield to Maturity 1.55% and Duration 2.68. A simple bond price calculator in Excel yields an average bond price of $104.02. After 28 bp of MER, the pre-tax YTM is 1.24%. After tax, assuming 46% marginal tax rate AND the ability to use the $4.02 capital loss in 2.83 years, the after-tax return is 0.35% (it is 0.24% if the investor can’t use the capital loss, and sadly, many can’t). 0.35% after tax on an investment yielding 1.24% gross is a 71% effective tax rate. Better to keep the money in a high interest short term bank account! a 3 Year GIC at 2% yields 1.08% after tax — nearly 3 times as much.

    Every time I bring this to Rob’s attention he pooh-poohs the problem with a statement something like “most people invest in Bond ETFs in their RRSP”. That way he can forget about taxes again.

    One good thing about GICs is that they are par bonds, so the effective tax rate is your marginal tax rate. Strips have the same advantage.

    Taxable investors are probably better off purchasing bonds individually and searching out bonds with prices near or below par.

  2. jiHymas says:

    Quite right. It’s a major problem in the current environment. I have several consultation clients who have to jump through hoops to get a suitable fixed income portfolio in their taxable accounts.

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