November 24, 2014

These are strange times for bond markets:

The Bank for International Settlements estimates the amount of bonds outstanding has surged more than 40 percent since 2007 as countries such as the U.S. increased deficits to pull their economies out of recession and companies locked in low-cost financing as central banks dropped interest rates.

Even so, a shortfall emerged. At a time when investors scarred by the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression were seeking out the safest assets, central banks in the U.S., U.K. and Japan sapped new supply by purchasing trillions of dollars of bonds in unprecedented stimulus programs.

Global banking regulations designed to limit risk-taking and prevent a repeat of the crisis also boosted buying by requiring that financial firms stockpile highly rated assets.

All that extra demand has helped push down borrowing costs and upended forecasts by economists and strategists who foresaw higher bond yields this year.

ECB President Mario Draghi fueled speculation that the bank will start buying government bonds after saying last week officials would broaden debt purchases if the inflation outlook weakens. Analysts estimate consumer prices in the euro area will rise 0.5 percent this year, the least since 2009.

The BOJ, the largest holder of Japan’s government bonds with 20 percent, may end up owning half that market by as early as 2018 as it tries to spur an economy that’s contracted at least five times in the past decade, according to Takuji Okubo, a chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo.

Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan and the U.K., along with the major lenders and reserve managers in those regions, are on pace to amass $26 trillion of debt securities by the end of next year, according to JPMorgan.

And it’s not only the central banks. Global bond funds will probably add $280 billion next year, while pensions and insurers in the U.S., Europe, Japan and the U.K. will buy an estimated $550 billion, according to JPMorgan.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 6bp, FixedResets gaining 5bp and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp. Volatility was average – but all the winners were FixedResets. Volume was slightly below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3107 % 2,533.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3107 % 4,011.2
Floater 2.97 % 3.07 % 60,180 19.49 4 -0.3107 % 2,693.4
OpRet 4.04 % -5.50 % 97,519 0.08 1 0.1183 % 2,763.4
SplitShare 4.26 % 4.04 % 50,581 3.77 5 0.1581 % 3,197.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1183 % 2,526.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.43 % -9.25 % 67,548 0.08 19 0.0452 % 2,486.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.10 % 5.02 % 106,354 15.40 16 -0.0552 % 2,683.6
FixedReset 4.16 % 3.53 % 172,524 4.54 74 0.0544 % 2,597.8
Deemed-Retractible 4.95 % -0.57 % 100,433 0.10 40 -0.0124 % 2,615.0
FloatingReset 2.55 % -4.71 % 58,558 0.08 6 0.1240 % 2,556.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-11-24
Maturity Price : 19.01
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : 2.48 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.24 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.B FixedReset 124,791 Scotia bought 15,800 from RBC at 25.49 and crossed two blocks of 50,000 each, both at 25.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 83,249 RBC sold blocks of 12,900 and 19,000 to National, both at 19.00, then crossed 17,400 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-11-24
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 53,152 Desjardins crossed 47,600 at 26.18.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 31,170 Scotia bought 10,700 from RBC at 23.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-11-24
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 22.96
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 24,365 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : -13.90 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 22,933 Desjardins crossed 12,500 at 26.18.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.16
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 19.01 – 19.50
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3834

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-11-24
Maturity Price : 19.01
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.80 – 24.09
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1894

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 26.25 – 26.50
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1767

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 2.24 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.80 – 26.24
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3672

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %

IFC.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.93 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1997

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.93
Bid-YTW : 2.50 %

FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.35 – 20.76
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3457

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-11-24
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.