February 23, 2017

Assiduous Reader Adrian2 sends me a link to a discussion of drones in Engineering school:

Among the biggest adopters of drones, and experimenters with them, have been universities. As the director of the University of California system’s Center of Excellence on Unmanned Aircraft System Safety – effectively the drone headquarters of our whole 10-campus system – I have an excellent view of the drone industry’s past, present and future.

Some introductory engineering classes involve students building and flying drones; more advanced students learn about flight dynamics and algorithms that help drones stay aloft.

In recent years, though, our engineering departments are focusing less on building the aircraft and more on improving safety, navigation and ability to carry equipment that allows drones to help with different tasks.

For example, researchers are developing navigation systems that don’t rely on GPS satellites. This could help allow drones to navigate autonomously inside buildings, in deep canyons, underground or other places where GPS signals are unavailable or unreliable.

Another research group is working on ways for drones to help detect gas leaks from oil pipelines. With millions of miles of pipelines across the country, that is a monumental task. Attaching methane-sniffing sensors to drones could make it much easier: Autonomous drones could fly the routes of every pipeline nearly constantly, registering the location and volume of leaks, and alerting repair and cleanup crews.

For example, drones with special thermal cameras are allowing researchers to investigate water consumption rates of several varieties of crops in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The drones’ data collection is so detailed that the scholars can count individual melons, allowing much better estimates of crop yield.

For instance, when monitoring giant sequoias, a team of five to seven people would have to map the area, which would take about a week. A drone flight has been able to replace that work with a two-minute flight. That makes it easier to track how the trees are growing and responding to changes in their environment.

There will be some Assiduous Readers, of course, who hate drones and hate it when I talk about them. For you guys, I recommend Siberian Tigers.

I remember once trying to find a chart showing the federal deficit during the nineties, to buttress a point I was making on social media. I couldn’t find one … so in memory of that wasted hour, here’s a federal deficit chart from Bloomberg:

federaldeficit
Click for Big
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Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5611 % 2,076.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5611 % 3,809.9
Floater 3.64 % 3.87 % 55,463 17.65 4 0.5611 % 2,195.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1775 % 2,992.7
SplitShare 4.72 % 4.08 % 62,448 0.78 4 0.1775 % 3,574.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1775 % 2,788.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.41 % -6.50 % 73,431 0.09 16 0.0976 % 2,738.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.16 % 5.14 % 99,235 15.06 22 0.2480 % 2,916.6
FixedReset 4.41 % 4.02 % 231,790 6.78 97 0.1947 % 2,335.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 0.84 % 135,448 0.10 31 0.3316 % 2,856.7
FloatingReset 2.48 % 3.10 % 51,386 4.66 9 0.2886 % 2,474.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.60
Evaluated at bid price : 21.96
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 15.56
Evaluated at bid price : 15.56
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 22.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.46
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.63
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.37
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.28
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 22.82
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 14.84
Evaluated at bid price : 14.84
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.58
Evaluated at bid price : 21.99
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 13.43
Evaluated at bid price : 13.43
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 22.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 16.16
Evaluated at bid price : 16.16
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 182,362 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
BNS.PR.G FixedReset 153,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.99
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset 150,510 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 143,975 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 19.47
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 106,005 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 85,278 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.98
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
There were 38 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 15.42 – 15.75
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.1966

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.42
Bid-YTW : 9.23 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.96 – 22.32
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2350

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.60
Evaluated at bid price : 21.96
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 15.56 – 15.84
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1730

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 15.56
Evaluated at bid price : 15.56
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %

RY.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 21.94 – 22.24
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1999

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.94
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %

SLF.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 23.60 – 23.88
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1898

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 24.39 – 24.59
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1254

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-02-23
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.39
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %

One Response to “February 23, 2017”

  1. malcolmm says:

    I think government deficits and debt, in Canada and in many other countries will become a huge problem in the not so distant future.

    Despite near record low interest rates most governments are running large deficits. Instead of using the low interest rates as a opportunity to pay down debt governments are adding to the massive pile of debt.

    So what happens when interest rates return to rates closer to historical levels? My guess is we will get a debt crisis. Government deficits will start increasing due to the increasing cost of refinancing their debt. So their credit ratings will drop and investors will start to demand even higher rates leading to higher deficits.

    I’ve learned not to try to predict higher interest rates. So I have no idea when this process will start (it may be starting already) but I’m confident it will happen.

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