July 6, 2017

The BoC has a lot of people convinced there will be a hike next week:

In Canada, there is now an 89 per cent probability of a rate hike next week, marking a radical shift from negligible chances of a rate hike just a month ago.

I’ll go along with that … certainly there has been no back-pedalling by the bank as the market has become progressively more sure that This Is It. But the fat lady hasn’t sung yet … if they stand pat, there will be carnage!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.0627 % 2,313.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.0627 % 4,245.0
Floater 3.42 % 3.45 % 76,901 18.67 3 3.0627 % 2,446.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0313 % 3,070.7
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.25 % 61,274 1.45 5 0.0313 % 3,667.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0313 % 2,861.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.35 % 3.15 % 71,162 0.09 21 -0.0005 % 2,786.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.19 % 5.17 % 87,176 15.23 15 -0.5615 % 2,974.5
FixedReset 4.36 % 4.30 % 189,127 6.43 97 -0.0957 % 2,384.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 5.22 % 115,547 6.19 30 -0.1039 % 2,889.2
FloatingReset 2.65 % 3.06 % 50,882 4.32 10 0.0999 % 2,592.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.97
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 22.95
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.84
Evaluated at bid price : 22.08
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.87
Evaluated at bid price : 22.11
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.31
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 14.55
Evaluated at bid price : 14.55
Bid-YTW : 3.42 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 20.37
Evaluated at bid price : 20.37
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 13.77
Evaluated at bid price : 13.77
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 3.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 13.77
Evaluated at bid price : 13.77
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 3.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.E FixedReset 729,530 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.87
Evaluated at bid price : 23.88
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 266,887 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 167,773 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.71
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset 111,993 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 111,280 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 105,860 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.31
Evaluated at bid price : 24.08
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 103,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.13
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
There were 17 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PR.T FloatingReset Quote: 24.40 – 25.33
Spot Rate : 0.9300
Average : 0.5203

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %

TD.PF.F Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.06 – 25.39
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2161

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %

BAM.PF.I FixedReset Quote: 25.75 – 26.06
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1975

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %

BAM.PF.F FixedReset Quote: 23.95 – 24.25
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1879

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 23.97 – 24.47
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3911

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-07-06
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.97
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.90 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1916

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

2 Responses to “July 6, 2017”

  1. SafetyinNumbers says:

    I’m intrigued by some of the low priced preferred shares tied to prime like BBD.PR.B (credit concerns noted) and TRI.PR.B. BBD.PR.B has underperformed BBD.PR.C which seems odd in a potentially rising rate environment.

    One point that I haven’t seen discussed is if the prime rate will move as much as the BOC does even though it only moved down 30bp on the last 50bp of cuts by the BOC.

  2. jiHymas says:

    Rob Carrick had a column on the issue titled Make no mistake, borrowers will bear the brunt of a rate hike:

    There is no requirement for banks to match the Bank of Canada’s moves in changing interest rates. So there was nothing technically wrong with their decision in 2015 to lower their prime rates by a total 0.3 of a percentage point after the Bank of Canada cut by a combined 0.5 of a point. There were two cuts of 0.25 of a point that year – in January and July.

    Watch for the banks to use stealth tactics if they decide to push the limits on rate increases. One possibility would be to bump up their current mark-ups over prime for lines of credit. Another possibility would be to follow Toronto-Dominion Bank’s example and create a proprietary in-house prime rate for pricing variable-rate mortgages. TD’s mortgage prime is 2.85 per cent, compared with 2.7 per cent for its conventional prime rate.

    I’m more afraid of the banks playing games with the definition of Prime than I am of them playing with Prime itself. After all, they have encouragement from the Bank of Canada … its published data for the Canadian five-year mortgage rate (V80691335: Conventional mortgage – 5-year) has been nonsensical for the past several years and it claims that the rate is now 4.64% ho-ho-ho. It makes a mockery of their mandate to provide accurate data to the investing public.

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