March 13, 2018

Today’s gloom comes to us courtesy of Moody’s:

Canada’s mountain of consumer debt is triggering multiple alarms about the threat to the country’s banks.

Moody’s Investors Service joined the Bank for International Settlements and S&P Global Ratings which have all warned in the last month that Canada’s banking system, dominated by five giants, is facing a growing threat of souring consumer loans amid rising interest rates. The country’s ratio of household debt to disposable income reached a record 171 percent in the third quarter of last year.

The proportion of uninsured mortgages has increased to 60 percent from 50 percent five years ago, including home equity lines of credit, amid government efforts to reduce taxpayer exposure, according to the report from Moody’s on Tuesday. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., a government agency, insurers the bulk of mortgages in Canada.

Almost half of outstanding mortgages, many of them on fixed-rate terms, will have an interest-rate reset within the year, increasing the strain on households’ debt-servicing capacity, Moody’s said.

This looks like bad news for Aimia:

PC Optimum points will replace Aeroplan miles as the loyalty program of choice at Esso stations across the country effective June 1, as Imperial Oil Ltd. shifts its relationship to Loblaw Companies Ltd.

Aimia Inc.-operated Aeroplan notified members of the change to its 14-year partnership in an email on Tuesday.

It noted that up to 1.5 miles for every dollar spent will continue to be earned when using Aeroplan-affiliated credit cards for purchases at any retailer, including Esso.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2254 % 3,095.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2254 % 5,679.7
Floater 3.21 % 3.42 % 112,427 18.63 4 -0.2254 % 3,273.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1413 % 3,165.4
SplitShare 4.69 % 4.11 % 63,719 3.29 5 0.1413 % 3,780.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1413 % 2,949.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 0.13 % 79,010 0.09 11 0.1507 % 2,837.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.31 % 5.40 % 86,671 14.75 23 0.2617 % 2,947.7
FixedReset 4.25 % 4.57 % 172,268 5.82 103 0.0626 % 2,524.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.15 % 5.68 % 89,239 5.75 28 0.2961 % 2,928.6
FloatingReset 3.00 % 3.00 % 35,299 3.66 10 0.1724 % 2,766.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.14
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.E FixedReset 61,925 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.46
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 58,133 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 29,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset 27,336 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 23,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.81
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 23,370 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 20.53
Evaluated at bid price : 20.53
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
There were 25 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PVS.PR.B SplitShare Quote: 25.20 – 25.61
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2722

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 24.07 – 24.38
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2058

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.07
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 21.44 – 21.78
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2614

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 19.80 – 19.99
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1243

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.22 – 23.50
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2154

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 23.22
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %

CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.23 – 21.49
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1990

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-13
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

One Response to “March 13, 2018”

  1. BarleyandHops says:

    is facing a growing threat of souring consumer loans….will have an interest-rate reset within the year, increasing the strain on households’ debt-servicing

    Leading indicator is (imho) monthly delinquencies on Telco (wireless) accounts. Then abandoned cable TV selection options, and fewer handsets in future family plans.

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