March 27, 2018

Which way is the wind blowing? It looks like the world’s about to end again:

A selloff in technology shares sent U.S. equity benchmarks lower, with losses accelerating late in the day. Bonds surged on demand for safe havens, pushing the yield on 10-year Treasuries below a key level.

Trade angst weighed on leading tech companies with the Nasdaq 100 Index erasing most of Monday’s gain after a report the Trump administration is considering a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. considers sensitive. Facebook’s woes mounted and Nvidia Corp. spooked investors in chipmakers. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index — Wall Street’s fear gauge — spiked.

The equity selling bled into the Treasury market, sending the 10-year yield below 2.8 percent as investors sought havens.

•The S&P 500 slumped 1.7 percent as of the close of trading in New York.
•The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 3.3 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.4 percent.


•The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 2.77 percent.

I hadn’t realized that some US public employee pension funds were so grossly underfunded:

The state hasn’t done a particularly good job running public pensions. According to S&P Global Ratings, New Jersey’s pension funding ratio is the worst in the nation, having saved enough to cover about 31 percent of the benefits that have been promised. The police and fire system is relatively strong by comparison, with about 65 cents for every dollar it’s on the hook for down the road, according to NJ.com.

States and municipalities from coast to coast are now living with the consequences of the 1990s tech boom, which brought public pension funding levels to 100 percent and allowed politicians to sweeten the pot for union members.

The subsequent bust — and the Great Recession a few years after that — took its toll on the funds backing those promised benefits. The aggregate state and local government pension funding ratio is now 73 percent, up from 67 percent at year-end 2016, according to Patrick Luby of CreditSights, who cites Federal Reserve data.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6287 % 3,006.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6287 % 5,516.9
Floater 3.32 % 3.49 % 106,641 18.53 4 -0.6287 % 3,179.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2114 % 3,160.9
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.16 % 59,533 3.25 5 -0.2114 % 3,774.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2114 % 2,945.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 4.48 % 79,223 0.09 11 0.2051 % 2,840.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.39 % 5.50 % 80,902 14.61 23 0.0075 % 2,913.9
FixedReset 4.31 % 4.68 % 174,437 5.87 104 -0.0931 % 2,502.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.20 % 5.79 % 89,162 5.70 28 0.1157 % 2,903.8
FloatingReset 2.96 % 3.14 % 35,765 3.63 10 -0.0664 % 2,755.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -2.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.02
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -2.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 23.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.96
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.96
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.39
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.R FixedReset 78,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 71,659 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.02
Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset 65,928 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 59,221 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 23.22
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 52,722 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.97
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 50,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.82
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Quote: 23.02 – 23.83
Spot Rate : 0.8100
Average : 0.4832

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.02
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 23.96 – 24.78
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.5512

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 23.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.96
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 20.28 – 21.70
Spot Rate : 1.4200
Average : 1.2058

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-27
Maturity Price : 20.28
Evaluated at bid price : 20.28
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.15 – 21.63
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.3006

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.16 – 23.70
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3612

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 6.37 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.02 – 21.44
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2439

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.02
Bid-YTW : 7.55 %

2 Responses to “March 27, 2018”

  1. malcolmm says:

    I expect problems with pension funds will be big news in the coming years.

    The last few years have seen strong returns for stock markets and real estate, in Canada and the US. Despite this many pension funds are underfunded.

    I can’t imagine stock markets and real estate producing the returns going forward that they have in recent years. Even without the major corrections I’m expecting, I think this spells trouble for many pension funds. Even some fully funded pension funds are only fully funded if they make their expected 7%+ returns going forward – tough for a balanced portfolio.

  2. jiHymas says:

    I agree – I think DB pensions will enter history as one of the biggest financial scams / screw-ups of all time. Madoff had NUTHIN’ on these guys.

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