May 10, 2019

Jobs, jobs, jobs!

Canada’s labour market delivered a surprise Friday with its biggest one-month employment gain since the government started collecting comparable data in 1976.

The country added 106,500 net jobs in April, the bulk of which were full time, Statistics Canada said in its latest labour force survey.

The rush of new jobs far surpassed market forecasts and helped drop the unemployment rate to 5.7 per cent, down from 5.8 per cent in March.

A closer look at April reveals the overall gain was driven by the creation of 73,000 full-time jobs and 83,800 positions in the private sector.

The gains were spread across many industries, with both the services and factory sectors seeing gains. Employment rose by 32,400 in wholesale and retail trade positions, while the construction sector added 29,200 jobs.

Year-over-year average hourly wage growth for all employees in April was 2.5 per cent, up from a reading of 2.4 per cent in March.

Rob Carrick has publicized the latest pronouncement of the FP Canada Standards Council and Institut québécois de planification financière:

The return projections for 2019 were recently published by the FP Canada Standards Council and Institut québécois de planification financière. They’re meant to provide an analytical view on returns that is free from the bias of individual planners and investment advisers. You can find expected returns for the major asset classes in this recent post. Now let’s look at how these return expectations come together in portfolios designed for conservative, balanced and aggressive investors. Note: These are after-fee returns, with the fee set at 1.25 per cent.

– Conservative (5 per cent cash, 70 per cent bonds, 25 per cent Canadian stocks): Average net annual returns of 3.16 per cent.

– Balanced (5 per cent cash, 45 per cent bonds, 40 per cent Canadian stocks, 10 per cent foreign developed market stocks): An annualized 3.74 per cent

– Aggressive (5 per cent cash, 20 per cent bonds, 35 per cent Canadian stocks, 25 per cent foreign developed market stocks, 15 per cent emerging market stocks): 4.5 per cent annually.

I highlighted the projection standards when commenting on some Fraser Institute garbage on February 25.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1103 % 2,051.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1103 % 3,764.3
Floater 5.73 % 6.14 % 49,171 13.65 3 -0.1103 % 2,169.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0340 % 3,294.0
SplitShare 4.67 % 4.89 % 76,670 4.27 7 0.0340 % 3,933.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0340 % 3,069.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.53 % 4.84 % 90,343 0.09 12 -0.0527 % 2,952.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.42 % 5.47 % 73,896 14.70 20 0.0837 % 3,111.4
FixedReset Disc 5.28 % 5.41 % 163,249 14.91 63 -0.1920 % 2,175.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.22 % 5.80 % 95,332 8.07 27 -0.0504 % 3,080.8
FloatingReset 3.97 % 4.33 % 52,025 2.61 4 -0.1408 % 2,404.6
FixedReset Prem 5.11 % 3.84 % 258,571 2.13 21 0.1411 % 2,586.2
FixedReset Bank Non 1.97 % 3.95 % 154,432 2.63 3 0.0278 % 2,652.7
FixedReset Ins Non 5.05 % 6.83 % 99,314 8.17 22 -0.1082 % 2,232.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 13.76
Evaluated at bid price : 13.76
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 18.44
Evaluated at bid price : 18.44
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 13.70
Evaluated at bid price : 13.70
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.29
Bid-YTW : 8.25 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.29
Bid-YTW : 7.90 %
EMA.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 22.46
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.61
Bid-YTW : 9.39 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.80
Bid-YTW : 8.98 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 81,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 22.03
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 52,340 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.48
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset Prem 47,231 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 46,660 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.33
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
MFC.PR.O FixedReset Ins Non 37,814 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.13
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
BIP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 33,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
There were 15 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 22.48 – 22.98
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3177

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.48
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 17.29 – 17.76
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3482

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.29
Bid-YTW : 7.90 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.56 – 20.86
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1812

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.56
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc Quote: 13.76 – 14.10
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2347

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 13.76
Evaluated at bid price : 13.76
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %

SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.40 – 22.71
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2184

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %

BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.16 – 20.67
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.4213

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-05-10
Maturity Price : 20.16
Evaluated at bid price : 20.16
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %

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