November 18, 2019

Here’s one reason preferreds have been doing so badly:

The household savings rate – the percentage of disposable income left after spending – most recently clocked in at 1.7 per cent, near its lowest point in six decades, according to Statistics Canada. In dollar terms, the plunge is substantial. Last year, $852 was saved per household, compared with greater than $3,500 in 2013.

At the expense of savings, Canadians are spending more than ever on debt payments. The household debt-service ratio sits at a record 14.9 per cent – meaning, households are spending about 15 cents of every after-tax dollar on debt payments. For the second consecutive quarter, households spent more on interest than principal repayments.

The situation in Canada differs wildly from the U.S., where people are hoarding cash to a greater degree. The U.S. personal savings rate is running north of 8 per cent, and the country’s household debt burden is markedly lower than a decade ago.

There’s another factor driving Canada’s savings rate lower: the country is getting older, and people generally spend more than they earn in their retirement years. If Canada’s age distribution was held constant at 1999 levels, today’s savings rate would be about three percentage points higher, BMO said Friday in a report.

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The Trading Economics website has some global comparators, including Mexico at 21.2%, The Netherlands at 25.44% and global champion China at 36.1%.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1768 % 1,973.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1768 % 3,621.6
Floater 6.12 % 6.31 % 44,544 13.38 4 -0.1768 % 2,087.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3031 % 3,407.0
SplitShare 4.62 % 4.61 % 49,106 3.86 7 0.3031 % 4,068.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3031 % 3,174.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.56 % -18.77 % 49,212 0.09 10 0.0196 % 3,035.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.32 % 5.44 % 66,993 14.73 25 0.0762 % 3,249.8
FixedReset Disc 5.58 % 5.62 % 172,054 14.44 66 0.1156 % 2,107.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.61 % 60,975 7.78 27 0.0674 % 3,198.6
FloatingReset 6.20 % 6.79 % 103,836 12.73 2 -1.5745 % 2,457.2
FixedReset Prem 5.12 % 3.75 % 122,245 1.60 20 0.0117 % 2,622.1
FixedReset Bank Non 1.96 % 4.17 % 74,360 2.14 3 -0.1377 % 2,694.5
FixedReset Ins Non 5.43 % 7.98 % 110,589 7.85 22 0.5875 % 2,151.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 13.45
Evaluated at bid price : 13.45
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 15.65
Evaluated at bid price : 15.65
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 11.14
Evaluated at bid price : 11.14
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 11.36
Evaluated at bid price : 11.36
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 8.27 %
EIT.PR.A SplitShare 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 15.55
Evaluated at bid price : 15.55
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.78
Bid-YTW : 7.57 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.70
Bid-YTW : 9.88 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.62
Bid-YTW : 8.81 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.55
Bid-YTW : 10.97 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 16.71
Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 7.98 %
EMA.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 16.79
Evaluated at bid price : 16.79
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 17.58
Evaluated at bid price : 17.58
Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.67
Bid-YTW : 8.33 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Bid-YTW : 8.67 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 65,706 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 8.67 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 56,549 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 17.06
Evaluated at bid price : 17.06
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc 49,451 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 19.16
Evaluated at bid price : 19.16
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 47,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 21.43
Evaluated at bid price : 21.69
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 45,350 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 43,105 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 18.74
Evaluated at bid price : 18.74
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
There were 44 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 14.26 – 14.64
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2702

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.26
Bid-YTW : 10.29 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 11.13 – 11.44
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2292

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 11.13
Evaluated at bid price : 11.13
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 13.45 – 13.83
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2995

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 13.45
Evaluated at bid price : 13.45
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %

BMO.PR.Q FixedReset Bank Non Quote: 23.71 – 23.99
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2099

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.71
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

BNS.PR.Z FixedReset Bank Non Quote: 24.11 – 24.36
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1812

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.11
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

CM.PR.Y FixedReset Disc Quote: 24.80 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1324

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-11-18
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

10 Responses to “November 18, 2019”

  1. skeptical says:

    The consumer appetite is almost insatiable in our country. I was shopping for an entry level luxury sedan/top end trim of mainstream mid size sedan. These things now start upwards of $40k and go on till $60k. A top end Toyota Camry is now $42k plus taxes. Same for Honda Accord. The German luxury entries are above $50k. Leases run anywhere from $550 for Camry to upto $750 for 3 series BMW/Audi etc. Plus taxes.
    This is entry level stuff. Imagine all the fancier cars out there and most are either financed or leased. and the vicious cycle (or virtuous cycle if you are bank/car dealer/auto maker) begins a few years later. We are living way beyond what we can really afford.
    Who wants to save or invest?
    Who wants to first save $100k so that they can invest that in some preferred shares and make their lease payment from the dividend stream? Not even 1 in 100. Too bad as I think it’s one of the finest ways of enjoying nice things but with a bit of delay.

  2. malcolmm says:

    I agree. For decades I always bought base model low end cars and generally lived below my means. My savings went into dividend paying stocks. It worked out well for me but most of my friends spent almost everything they earned.

  3. mbarbon says:

    I will continue to buy the 1-2 year old model that goes off-lease……

  4. mbarbon says:

    Last time I bought a Toyota, I popped into a couple of Toyota Delearships and told them I wanted on off-lease Toyota that was 100% maintained by Toyota.. Within two weeks I got a call of a 3yr Toyota manager off-lease. Complete with all toyota maintenance and repairs/warranty (only a small $80 part) records … SUV has behaved great…

  5. BarleyandHops says:

    skeptical says:

    Leases run anywhere

    Also keep in mind that more than half of car leases in Canada are for 84 months. Yup 7 years to carry a depreciating asset. And month after month you pay tax on that payment

    @ mbarbon – I do the same, I will also look at “Demos” as well.

    I get the sense that Cdn. consumers are struggling and have been for the last 3-6 months. Case in point: Was at the barber last Thursday and the shops’ traffic is down 15% or so; and this was the first year in nine there was no back to school, back from vacay bump in revenue.

  6. baffled says:

    barley and hops , you say “And month after month you pay tax on that payment” , that is better than buying where you pay all the tax at once

  7. BarleyandHops says:

    @ baffled

    Yup it works for some folks. In my universe, I prefer to have the costs up front and budget accordingly. Ongoing multi month/year fixed expenses dont allow to cushion for surprises like job loss, medical expenses or unanticipated home expenses.

  8. mbarbon says:

    For tax reasons, sometimes leasing vehicles for self-employeed works better…

    But if small businesses are struggling, then you know that they will postpone a new lease……

    Or, if Preferreds were earning way more (or were deemed more valuable and thus have capital gains), one may be more inclined to spend your extra rewards on a new/semi-new vehicle….

  9. jiHymas says:

    I don’t have a car – I don’t even have a license!

    It’s inconvenient at times, but cabs are plentiful – and not owning a car makes up for a multitude of lesser financial sins.

  10. BarleyandHops says:

    @jim don’t have a car

    We sold our second vehicle almost a year ago. It did not make economic sense to keep it. Given insurance, upkeep, and yes for that we paid monthly paid parking in central GTA – net, we were able to rent a brand new spiffy car (cleaned, tidy spanking neg new Audi) three times per month w/ Discount and were still ahead.

    Just had the tires changed on the primary vehicle from Summer to Winter at Downtown Honda in the TO market. Final costs were just under $500 for the switcheroo. So in the Spring it will be another $500. We decided to part w/ out last vehicle. It dont make economic sense in an urban/expensive market.

    With rental companies opening offices in convenient places (ie not airport locations) it needs a second look for financial reasons.

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