May 27, 2020

Pembina Pipeline has announced (on 2020-5-26):

that it has agreed to issue $500 million of senior unsecured medium-term notes (the “Offering”). The Offering will be conducted in two tranches consisting of $400 million in senior unsecured medium-term notes, series 16 (the “Series 16 Notes”) having a fixed coupon of 4.67 percent per annum, paid semi-annually, and maturing on May 28, 2050; and $100 million principal amount to be issued through a re-opening of the Company’s 3.71 percent medium-term notes, series 7, due August 11, 2026 (the “Series 7 Notes”).

Closing of the Offering is expected to occur on May 28, 2020 and the net proceeds are intended to be used to repay indebtedness of the Company under its unsecured $2.5 billion revolving credit facility due May 2024 incurred in connection with the acquisition of the U.S. portion of the Cochin Pipeline system, as well as to fund Pembina’s capital program and for general corporate purposes.

The Series 16 Notes and the re-opening of the Series 7 Notes are being offered through a syndicate of dealers under Pembina’s short-form base shelf prospectus dated August 30, 2019, as supplemented by related pricing supplements dated May 26, 2020.

Yesterday, PPL’s FixedResets closed with a fairly wide range of yields, given GOC-5 of 0.36% and 3-Month Bills of 0.24%; from 6.92% (PPL.PR.K; has a minimum rate guarantee) to 8.22% (PPL.PR.O); the interest-equivalent range is 9.00% to 10.69%. The spread between the newly issued 30-year bonds and the FixedResets is therefore between 433bp to 602bp – not directly comparable to the Seniority Spread, of course, because these are FixedResets, but an indication nevertheless of why issuers aren’t coming out with new issues!

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.97%, equivalent to 7.76% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 3.31%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed slightly (and perhaps spuriously), to 445bp from the 450bp reported May 20. We are still equal to the pre-2020 record of 445bp briefly touched in 2008.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4295 % 1,437.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4295 % 2,637.9
Floater 5.37 % 5.68 % 33,403 14.30 4 1.4295 % 1,520.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0753 % 3,412.8
SplitShare 4.92 % 5.14 % 65,955 3.90 7 0.0753 % 4,075.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0753 % 3,180.0
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0942 % 2,928.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.75 % 5.97 % 80,342 13.91 35 -0.0942 % 3,141.5
FixedReset Disc 6.50 % 5.37 % 179,585 14.52 83 -0.3548 % 1,748.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.45 % 5.76 % 92,384 13.94 27 0.0082 % 3,118.0
FloatingReset 5.16 % 5.14 % 47,921 15.19 3 -0.3090 % 1,722.7
FixedReset Prem 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3548 % 2,417.5
FixedReset Bank Non 2.00 % 3.69 % 159,353 1.64 2 0.2907 % 2,753.1
FixedReset Ins Non 6.82 % 5.43 % 113,424 14.40 22 -1.2285 % 1,744.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -22.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 8.86
Evaluated at bid price : 8.86
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -8.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 7.22
Evaluated at bid price : 7.22
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -4.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 10.45
Evaluated at bid price : 10.45
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -3.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 16.10
Evaluated at bid price : 16.10
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 9.44
Evaluated at bid price : 9.44
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
MFC.PR.O FixedReset Ins Non -2.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Disc -2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.27
Evaluated at bid price : 14.27
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.60
Evaluated at bid price : 14.60
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.11
Evaluated at bid price : 14.11
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 13.32
Evaluated at bid price : 13.32
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
PVS.PR.H SplitShare -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2027-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 10.70
Evaluated at bid price : 10.70
Bid-YTW : 9.42 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 8.08
Evaluated at bid price : 8.08
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.64
Evaluated at bid price : 22.89
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.44
Evaluated at bid price : 17.44
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.17
Evaluated at bid price : 19.17
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
TD.PF.M FixedReset Disc -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.36
Evaluated at bid price : 14.36
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 6.06
Evaluated at bid price : 6.06
Bid-YTW : 8.94 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 13.10
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset Disc -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 13.72
Evaluated at bid price : 13.72
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.85
Evaluated at bid price : 14.85
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 15.45
Evaluated at bid price : 15.45
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.82
Evaluated at bid price : 14.82
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 12.55
Evaluated at bid price : 12.55
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 19.26
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
IAF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset Disc 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 23.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 9.18
Evaluated at bid price : 9.18
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 7.57
Evaluated at bid price : 7.57
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
EIT.PR.A SplitShare 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.32
Evaluated at bid price : 14.32
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 7.67
Evaluated at bid price : 7.67
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non 2.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 13.80
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc 2.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 3.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 7.44
Evaluated at bid price : 7.44
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc 4.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 75,261 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 63,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 61,363 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 20.61
Evaluated at bid price : 20.61
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc 56,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 13.93
Evaluated at bid price : 13.93
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 50,390 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 11.21
Evaluated at bid price : 11.21
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 46,581 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 8.86 – 12.17
Spot Rate : 3.3100
Average : 1.9498

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 8.86
Evaluated at bid price : 8.86
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 7.22 – 9.71
Spot Rate : 2.4900
Average : 1.8592

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 7.22
Evaluated at bid price : 7.22
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %

TD.PF.H FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.40 – 23.25
Spot Rate : 0.8500
Average : 0.4956

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 21.87
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 14.01 – 16.17
Spot Rate : 2.1600
Average : 1.8383

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

EML.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 22.75 – 23.47
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.4057

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.20 – 16.03
Spot Rate : 0.8300
Average : 0.5393

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-05-27
Maturity Price : 15.20
Evaluated at bid price : 15.20
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

3 Responses to “May 27, 2020”

  1. stusclues says:

    “but an indication nevertheless of why issuers aren’t coming out with new issues!”

    Only two new issues since May 2019! These being PVS SplitShare, 4.70% in 7-Year and IFC Straight Preferred, 5.40%, both in February.

    I’ve been waiting for this lack of new issuance to self-correct as demand builds (yield seekers) and supply falls (through NCIBs and SIBs). This ought to increase prices across the board, thereby reducing the seniority spread and allowing new issues again. No such luck! Its hard to discern any impact at all so far.

    I’m either early or wrong about this but I’ll clip my coupons in the meantime.

  2. peet says:

    You can add Fairfax to those who see better value in accessing the debt market rather than issuing more prefs: see their senior $ 650,000,000 10-year note issued April 24 at 4.625%.

    I note your comment that “I’ve been waiting for this lack of new issuance to self-correct as demand builds (yield seekers) and supply falls (through NCIBs and SIBs). This ought to increase prices across the board …”

    Interesting hypothesis, and I note it has been the subject of some commentary here in August 2019 and again in January 2020.

    As far as I can ascertain on-line, however, there are actually very few companies that have NCIBs for their prefs: BAM, Brookfield Office, Brookfield Properties, Atlantic Power, Dundee, Fairfax and most recently Innergex, and, finally, many split share companies. The Banks don’t seem to do them and neither do the regulated utilities, presumably because prefs are built into their capital structure and equity thickness calculations. In any event not all of these pref NCIBs actually get exercised, and the annual stipulated limits are quite modest, with BAM being the relative outlier.

    I am left with the impression that even if pref NCIBs result in some reduction in the supply, such reduction is so small that it would end up being immaterial in the overall pref market.

  3. stusclues says:

    “I am left with the impression that even if pref NCIBs result in some reduction in the supply, such reduction is so small that it would end up being immaterial in the overall pref market.”

    I generally agree with this statement to this point. However, as the Fairfax’s, banks and other entities continue to preferentially tap debt markets, the lack of growth of the supply of preferred shares still ought to run into a resurgence of demand from yield seekers once they stop worrying about capital loss (even if it is just mark to market loss, unrealized loss).

    So I think we at least have a force in motion to lean against increases in the seniority spread and to, ultimately, bring it back to something more normal.

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