Archive for October, 2006

October 31, 2006

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.11% 4.03% 42,749 10.68 2 -0.1794% 1,019.2
Fixed-Floater 5.00% 2.75% 151,045 10.65 7 +0.0864% 1,027.1
Floater 4.52% -16.01% 74,789 6.52 5 0.0635% 1,022.9
Op. Retract 4.67% 1.94% 89,693 2.37 17 0.0859% 1,021.3
Split-Share 4.95% 3.47% 157,739 3.26 11 0.0075% 1,022.4
Interest Bearing 6.88% 5.16% 57,457 1.97 7 0.0257% 1,024.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.07% 3.88% 213,084 4.32 47 0.1516% 1,039.5
Perpetual-Discount 4.60% 4.63% 604,494 16.15 7 0.1804% 1,032.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater +1.1111% Just a reversal of yesterday’s loss, really : a handful of shares traded just above $25.50. Closed at 25.48-56, 5×5.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.X OpRet 307,528 National sold 150,000 @27.55 to Nesbitt, Scotia & Desjardins in the late afternoon. Pre-tax YTW 2.69% based on a bid of $27.55 and a call 2009-10-30 @ $26.00. It only pays $1.20, so it might possibly make it to 2013-9-29, having yielded 3.23%.
ACO.PR.A OpRet 276,511 Nesbitt processed an internal cross of 275,000 @ 27.89. Pre-tax YTW of 2.94%, based on a bid of $27.65 and a call 2008-12-31 @ $26.00. It pays $1.4375, so its chances of making it further along the redemption trail are … not good.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 91,007 The clean-out sale continues, but at a slower pace!
SLF.PR.B PerpetualPremium 81,885 A bit, but not much, expensive I’d say, closing at $25.56-63 for a pre-tax YTW of 4.55% based on a call @ $25.00 on 2014-10-30.
PWF.PR.D OpRet 70,700 Nesbitt processed an internal cross at $27.18 in the only trade of the day. This issue has trade enough this month that it will be back in the index after rebalancing.

There were fifteen other index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

HIMI Preferred Indices : October, 1994

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

All indices were assigned a value of 1000.0 as of December 31, 1993.

HIMI Index Values 1994-10-31
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,086.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FixedFloater 1,086.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Floater 1,024.8 3 1.33 5.63% 14.4 94M 6.36%
OpRet 969.1 17 1.34 7.21% 5.3 73M 7.30%
SplitShare 969.1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest-Bearing 969.1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Perpetual-Premium 1,015.2 5 1.19 6.94% 4.0 56M 8.32%
Perpetual-Discount 1,004.8 1 1.00 7.40% 12.1 44M 7.39%

Index Constitution, 1994-10-31, Pre-Rebalancing

Index Constitution, 1994-10-31, Post-Rebalancing

Marginal Tax Rates: Alberta

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

Alberta announced their tax credit improvement September 12, which E&Y have analyzed to mean:

Investors Taxable Income Marginal Rate on Interest Marginal Rate on Dividends Equivalency Factor
Widows & Orphans $30,000 25.25% 3.63% 1.29
Professionals $75,000 36.00% 13.83% 1.35
Plutocrats $150,000 39.00% 18.18% 1.34

 

Hah! The equivalency factors aren’t as good as for BC and Ontario! It almost eases the sting of realizing just how low taxes are out West!

Marginal Tax Rates : Ontario

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

I’m not sure exactly how I did it, but when I was writing the BC Taxation Update, I wiped out the Ontario one from September 15, that I will now replace.

Ontario announced their tax credit improvement, which E&Y have analyzed to mean:

Investors Taxable Income Marginal Rate on Interest Marginal Rate on Dividends Equivalency Factor
Widows & Orphans $30,000 21.3% 0.00% 1.27
Professionals $75,000 43.41% 20.74% 1.40
Plutocrats $150,000 46.41% 25.09% 1.40

 

BCE Trust Conversion and Preferred Offer Now Dubious?

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

It has just been announced that there will be a tax on trusts. Any trusts created after today will be subject to the tax in 2007; existing trusts will be taxed in 2011.

 This makes execution of the BCE offer to buy their preferreds rather dubious, since it was conditional on their conversion taking place.

Of course, the pref market never fully believed the conversion would take place anyway: see the attached graph of the flatBidPrice of the most active affected issue, BC.PR.C, for this issue’s reaction to the offer. The putative offer price was $26.25, announced October 11.

The market could be very active tomorrow, and not just in the issues affected by the offer! There may well be a stampede of income investors into prefs out of trusts – well overdue, since they should never have been in those things in the first place.

 

Ernst & Young Updates Tax Calculator : BC

Tuesday, October 31st, 2006

British Columbia announced on October 11 that the dividend tax credit would be increased; E&Y has updated its on-line Tax Calculator to October 12

So lets plug in some numbers for British Columbia:

Investors Taxable Income Marginal Rate on Interest Marginal Rate on Dividends Equivalency Factor
Widows & Orphans $30,000 21.3% 0.00% 1.27
Professionals $75,000 37.70% 10.20% 1.44
Plutocrats $150,000 43.70% 18.47% 1.45

So not only are tax rates lower in BC than in Ontario, they have a more favourable Dividend/Income conversion ratio as well! Huh!

DBRS Upgrades Canadian Utilities!

Monday, October 30th, 2006

DBRS announced today that they are upgrading the Canadian Utilities Limited preferred shares Series O, T, W & X from Pfd-2 to Pfd-2(high), where they will now match the series Q, R, S, U & V.

HIMIPref™ tracks four of these issues:

CU Issues & HIMIPref™
Series Symbol Status
Q CU.PR.T Unchanged
R CU.PR.V Unchanged
W CU.PR.A Upgraded
X CU.PR.B Upgraded

I do not anticipate much excitement to result from this upgrade. The two issues affected are high-dividend perpetuals with a short period until their YTW call. Due to the shortness of their expected term, NONE of the CU issues are eligible for purchase recommendations from HIMIPref™.

And anyway, as far as I can tell, the market isn’t putting much of a premium on “High” modifiers anyway!

The HIMIPref™ credit rating adjustment will take effect commencing October 31.

October 30, 2006

Monday, October 30th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.11% 3.99% 42,872 10.67 2 -0.0798% 1,021.0
Fixed-Floater 5.00% 2.83% 153,742 6.11 7 -0.0066% 1,026.2
Floater 4.52% -15.94% 75,151 6.51 5 0.1115% 1,022.2
Op. Retract 4.68% 2.30% 89,145 2.37 17 -0.0108% 1,020.5
Split-Share 4.95% 3.64% 159,085 3.64 11 0.0562% 1,022.3
Interest Bearing 6.88% 5.11% 56,689 1.98 7 -0.1196% 1,023.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.08% 3.97% 213,795 4.36 47 -0.0275% 1,037.9
Perpetual-Discount 4.61% 4.64% 604,467 16.14 7 -0.0636% 1,030.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BSD.PR.A InterestBearing -1.3699% Now with a pre-tax YTW of 6.04%, based on a bid of $10.08 and a maturity 2015-03-31
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater -1.2640% Looks like a trade of 400 shares at 3:36pm at $25.40 took out the bid and left the next bid at $25.20
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 399,590 See SLF.PR.D : Clearance Sale Winding Down?. It doesn’t look like it, at least as far as volume goes!
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium 184,770 Nesbitt processed an internal cross of 130,000 shares @26.95, Scotia crossed 50,000 @ $26.96. YTW 4.11% based on a call 2010-5-31 @ $26.00. Pays $1.35 with a $0.25 annual decline in premium, so it could very well hang on until the $25.00 call 2014-5-31 to have yielded 4.22% … unless interest rates move!
CM.PR.A OpRet 170,660 BMO crossed 65,000 for cash at $26.81, then bought 100,000 for cash from Desjardins at the same price. Odd. They’re nowhere near their ex-Date. I commented on this issue on October 26
MFC.PR.B PerpetualPremium 50,195 BMO bought 14,600 from National @ $25.39, then another 10,700 at the same price.
LBS.PR.A SplitShare 116,200 Recent new issue

There were sixteen other index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

October 27, 2006

Monday, October 30th, 2006
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.10% 3.98% 41,831 10.69 2 0.2070% 1,021.9
Fixed-Floater 4.96% 3.02% 156,139 8.71 7 -0.0220% 1,026.3
Floater 4.52% -15.64% 75,477 6.50 5 0.1433% 1,021.1
Op. Retract 4.68% 2.10% 88,489 2.38 17 0.0630% 1,020.6
Split-Share 4.95% 3.81% 158,927 3.81 11 -0.1049% 1,021.8
Interest Bearing 6.87% 4.88% 56,317 1.99 7 0.2525% 1,025.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.08% 3.83% 214,042 4.28 47 0.1284% 1,038.2
Perpetual-Discount 4.60% 4.63% 584,352 16.15 7 -0.0630% 1,031.4
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
There were no index-included issues with major price changes today.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 327,930 See SLF.PR.D : Clearance Sale Winding Down?
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 67,545  
CM.PR.R OpRet 42,400  
CM.PR.A OpRet 39,726  
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 37,920  

There were twenty-five other index-included issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

SLF.PR.D : Clearance Sale Winding Down?

Friday, October 27th, 2006

Well, here it is, the market’s been open for two hours and a mere 35-thousand-odd shares have traded. What a slow day! This might be an indication that the blow-out sale has run its course and the underwriters now have some shelf-space free for the next issue.

It is possible that this has something to do with the banks’ year-end: I will not pretend to be an expert on bank finances, but today is the first day that trades will settle after their year-end, which is October 31. Having sales settle on or prior to this date would go a little way, at least, towards deleveraging their reported balance sheets and improving their capital ratios – but I will leave it to others to determine how much of an incentive this was in the determination of blow-out timing.

All this is now ancient history, of course, and the question on everybody’s lips is “when are these shares going to recover? ARE they going to recover?”. My answer to the latter question is ‘I think so.’ Not ‘I know so’, because the market has a special way of humiliating those who profess to know its secrets, but this issue looks quite cheap by a variety of measures – and is actually trading at even-yield to Sunlife bonds, which means that, if we take the market price as fair, the perpetual nature of this issue is considered to offset the tax benefits of dividend income entirely. This does not sound reasonable!

 Timing? Holy smokes … making predictions about what the market will do is risky enough … making predictions about WHEN it’s going to do it is foolhardy! The price could go up tomorrow … it might go up by the end of November … it might, of course, never happen and leave me looking silly. The last blow-out was the WN.PR.E issue: I’ve prepared a HIMIPref™ graph of the price and Yield-to-Worst of this issue since issuance. It flatlined at $24.00 for a long time, but once it got moving, it moved quickly!

 Now, watch! As soon as I click the “Publish” button for this post, half a million shares will trade at $23.50! Such are the perils of forecasting!