Christophe Chamley, a professor of economics at Boston University, writes an interesting piece on Bloomberg about the Spanish default of 1575:
At that time of costly communications, periodic commercial fairs were essential events for the economic activity throughout Europe. Credit was rolled over from fair to fair by bankers, and lending agreements were renegotiated. With the Spanish commercial credit market frozen, the fairs couldn’t be held. Indeed, the main fair that was held twice a year at Medina del Campo was canceled. In short, the default caused a banking collapse, which led to a severe recession.
After two years, in November 1577, the cities caved, agreeing to a very large tax increase. The king resumed debt payments to the bankers. As the king explained in the settlement agreement, called Medio General, the bankers were joined in their demands “by the petition of the delegates of the cities with particular urgency about the same business.” In other words, the cities were begging the king to restore the business of trade. The fairs at Medina del Campo resumed late in the next year, but they had lost their preeminence forever.
It was a quiet day on the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 1bp, FixedResets winning 3bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was minimal. Volume was pathetic.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3697 % | 2,411.9 |
FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3697 % | 3,627.4 |
Floater | 2.51 % | 2.34 % | 34,103 | 21.41 | 4 | -0.3697 % | 2,604.2 |
OpRet | 4.85 % | 2.29 % | 55,107 | 0.16 | 9 | -0.0726 % | 2,452.7 |
SplitShare | 5.26 % | 4.16 % | 72,058 | 0.56 | 4 | 0.0287 % | 2,513.2 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0726 % | 2,242.8 |
Perpetual-Premium | 5.67 % | 4.87 % | 132,069 | 0.80 | 14 | 0.1653 % | 2,099.6 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.38 % | 5.42 % | 110,486 | 14.76 | 16 | 0.0079 % | 2,214.8 |
FixedReset | 5.15 % | 3.13 % | 215,758 | 2.62 | 58 | 0.0307 % | 2,326.2 |
Deemed-Retractible | 5.06 % | 4.71 % | 274,049 | 7.86 | 46 | 0.0035 % | 2,179.2 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
GWO.PR.J | FixedReset | -1.52 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2013-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.60 Bid-YTW : 3.47 % |
RY.PR.F | Deemed-Retractible | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 4.69 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
MFC.PR.D | FixedReset | 57,847 | RBC crossed 50,000 at 27.39. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-06-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 27.36 Bid-YTW : 3.45 % |
BNS.PR.Q | FixedReset | 52,106 | Nesbitt crossed 24,000 at 26.06. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2013-10-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.05 Bid-YTW : 3.09 % |
BNS.PR.L | Deemed-Retractible | 44,727 | RBC crossed 25,000 at 24.95. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 4.54 % |
BNS.PR.P | FixedReset | 42,475 | RBC bought 24,800 from anonymous and 12,300 from Nesbitt, all at 25.95. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2013-04-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.90 Bid-YTW : 2.89 % |
GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | 38,467 | RBC crossed 37,800 at 24.80. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.78 Bid-YTW : 3.49 % |
BNS.PR.T | FixedReset | 38,278 | Desjardins crossed 10,000 at 27.25; RBC crossed 25,000 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-04-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 27.20 Bid-YTW : 2.92 % |
There were 15 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
PWF.PR.A | Floater | Quote: 22.11 – 23.60 Spot Rate : 1.4900 Average : 1.1218 YTW SCENARIO |
FTS.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 24.26 – 24.96 Spot Rate : 0.7000 Average : 0.4801 YTW SCENARIO |
GWO.PR.J | FixedReset | Quote: 26.60 – 27.21 Spot Rate : 0.6100 Average : 0.3922 YTW SCENARIO |
FTS.PR.H | FixedReset | Quote: 25.35 – 26.00 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.5233 YTW SCENARIO |
RY.PR.P | FixedReset | Quote: 26.98 – 27.33 Spot Rate : 0.3500 Average : 0.2254 YTW SCENARIO |
CIU.PR.C | FixedReset | Quote: 25.00 – 25.90 Spot Rate : 0.9000 Average : 0.7784 YTW SCENARIO |
The end of the “Siglo de Oro” – Century of Gold, where Spain lived off its gold from the New World and England lived off of trade and naval might. Spain’s naval defeat in 1588 was the grand finale. I hope we are not living off of gold (debt) from the new world.
The latest indication that that is exactly what we are doing comes from Montreal: