The bailout doesn’t seem to be doing Italy and Spain much good:
Italian and Spanish bonds fell, while stocks retreated from an almost three-month high, on concern European leaders will struggle to raise funds to contain the region’s debt crisis. The yen sank from a post-World War II record against the dollar after Japan intervened in the market.
Italian five-year yields rose 19 basis points to 5.94 percent, the highest since 1997, at 9:32 a.m. in New York. German bunds and U.S. Treasuries advanced.
…
China can’t play the role of “savior,” the official Xinhua news agency said yesterday after European leaders agreed last week to boost their bailout fund. U.S. equities rallied Oct. 26 amid speculation China might invest in the fund. Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today the government took unilateral steps to weaken the yen.
The Greek referendum will be fascinating:
The Greek government will hold a referendum on a new EU aid package, calling on voters to say whether they want to adopt it or not, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on Monday.
“We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their decision,” he told ruling socialist party law makers.
Nearly 60 per cent of Greeks view Thursday’s EU summit agreement on a new €130-billion ($180-billion) bailout package as negative or probably negative, a survey showed on Saturday.
The Bank of Japan has major losses:
The Bank of Japan has lost more than 22.4 billion yen ($281.7 million) purchasing exchange-traded funds as the Topix Index approaches a 27-year low.
The central bank’s stock holdings have fallen about 4 percent since buying began on Dec. 15, 2010, according to estimates calculated by Bloomberg using government filings. Losses climbed above 67.6 billion yen in September as equities plunged amid concern Europe’s debt crisis would trigger a global recession, the data show.
The purchases are part of a 20 trillion yen BOJ plan to stimulate economic growth and boost investor confidence by buying securities, such as government debt, commercial paper and real estate investment trusts. The central bank expanded the program last week by 5 trillion yen after the country’s currency reached a postwar record against the dollar, threatening the export-led economy.
It will be interesting to see how this is resolved, since we may assume the European Central Bank will be in the same boat in short order, for the same reaons. Ah, say the politicians, it’s all very well thought out: banks = central banks = piggy-banks.
TMX Group Inc., the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, recommended shareholders accept a C$3.73 billion ($3.72 billion) bid from a group of Canadian banks and pension funds, turning an unsolicited offer into a friendly bid.
Maple plans to buy 70 percent to 80 percent of TMX shares at C$50 a share in cash, and the rest of the stock with Maple shares, according to a statement.
…
Maple, which made an initial unsolicited bid for TMX on May 13, needs 70 percent of the shares of the Toronto-based exchange owner by the offer expiry Jan. 31 for the transaction to succeed. The statement noted that the offer could be extended until April 30 to gain regulatory approvals.
Today’s Interesting Fact concernsrelative returns of bonds and equities (emphasis added):
The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that’s happened since before the Civil War.
Fixed-income investments advanced 6.25 percent this year, almost triple the 2.18 percent rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index through last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Debt markets are on track to return 7.63 percent this year, the most since 2002, the data show. Long-term government bonds have gained 11.5 percent a year on average over the past three decades, beating the 10.8 percent increase in the S&P 500, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago.
The bolded sentence shows that that the reporter must have been getting his opinions from a stockbroker, since it appears to be a straight line extrapolation of bond YTD returns to the full year and only a stockbroker would be stupid enough to do that.
Speculation has done in MF Global:
MF Global Holdings Ltd., the holding company for the broker-dealer run by former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-chairman Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy after making bets on European sovereign debt.
…
MF Global’s board had met through the weekend in New York to consider options including a sale to avert failure, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Following a record loss, MF Global was suspended today from doing new business with the New York Federal Reserve, according to a statement on the regulator’s website. Trading in MF Global’s stock was also halted.MF Global declined 67 percent last week and its bonds started trading at distressed levels amid its disclosures of bets on European sovereign-debt. MF Global held talks with five potential buyers for all or parts of the company, including banks, private-equity firms and brokers, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks were private.
It doesn’t reflect well on Corzine – or the board who hired him (as republished in the G&M):
It was the kind of gutsy trade that helped make Mr. Corzine a star at Goldman in the 1990s. “If it was a good trade for $100, he wanted to make it $1,000 or $1-million”, a former colleague recalled
Too bad. He didn’t have too long until retirement anyway, and could have spent all his time talking about about how smart he was. Now we all know he was just another lucky clown, chanting that if one is good then two is better.
We can gasp and laugh about European debt ratios all we like – but here in North America, we have infrastructure debt:
The disrepair of U.S. surface-transportation systems cost businesses and households about $130 billion last year, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers, based in Reston, Virginia. Of that, $32 billion is related to travel delays, it said in a report issued in July.
The average U.S. bridge is 43 years old, while the average useful life is generally about 50 years, according to the highway agency. The agency said in 2006 that it would cost $140 billion to immediately repair every deficient bridge in the U.S. That’s more than three times what the U.S. government receives in taxes annually to pay for road, mass transit and bridge projects.
Trouble is, maintenance isn’t sexy, so no politician anywhere is going to advocate spending money on it until problems get critical. Infrastructure, to a politician, is simply a magic money-hole dicussed only when unemployment becomes an issue. I have no problem with accelerating spending during recessions, when more skilled works and specialized equipment becomes available, but a state of good repair must be maintained at all times.
But, mortgaging the future is good politics:
The elderly will likely be the most vulnerable Americans in Washington’s future budget fights. Right now, their grandchildren may be among the biggest casualties.
With Democrats and the 37 million-member AARP seniors’ lobby working to protect Medicare and Social Security, and Republicans opposing tax increases to curb the deficit, programs for young people may be disproportionate targets if negotiators can’t reach a budget deal and automatic spending cuts kick in.
That’s sparking concern that lawmakers are sacrificing the U.S.’s future investment in children, education, infrastructure and other programs.
Alberta Gas, proud issuer of ALA.PR.A, was confirmed at Pfd-3 by DBRS:
DBRS has today confirmed the ratings on the Medium-Term Notes (MTNs) and Preferred Shares – Cumulative of AltaGas Ltd. (AltaGas or the Company) at BBB and Pfd-3, respectively, both with Stable trends.
The rating actions follow the announcement today that AltaGas has offered to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Pacific Northern Gas Ltd. (PNG; rated BBB (low) and Pfd-3 (low)) and that both parties have executed an Acquisition Agreement. The takeover offer of $36.75 per PNG share represents a 20% premium over the closing price of $30.50 per share on October 28, 2011. The proposed purchase price of approximately $230 million, including assumed debt of approximately $85 million and preferred shares of $5 million, represents approximately 1.2 times the regulated rate base of $174 million. The regulated assets earn an allowed rate of return of approximately 10.1% with a weighted average equity thickness of approximately 44%. The transaction value equates to approximately 9.6 times PNG’s EBITDA, which is reasonable. AltaGas expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow. Closing is expected on or about December 16, 2011, subject to regulatory and PNG shareholder approvals.
…
DBRS expects moderate deterioration in the Company’s credit metrics as a result of the acquisition funding through existing credit facilities (plus assumed PNG debt). DBRS estimates that the Company’s total debt-to-capital ratio would rise from 47% to 52% and its cash flow-to-debt ratio would fall from 20% to 17% pro forma the acquisition as at September 30, 2011. As noted previously (see the DBRS press release dated October 4, 2011), DBRS expects some deterioration in the Company’s key credit metrics during its 2011 to 2014 growth phase, with recovery toward the end of the period as expected cash shortfalls are to be primarily funded by debt.
Index figures are very approximate today since TMX Datalinx continues to have serious problems with the concept of providing quote data within five hours of the market close.
It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 20bp, FixedResets up 14bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 8bp. Lots of good performers on the positive side of the Performance Highlights table. Volume was average.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.9738 % | 2,060.5 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.9738 % | 3,098.9 |
| Floater | 3.49 % | 3.47 % | 157,036 | 18.58 | 2 | 0.9738 % | 2,224.8 |
| OpRet | 4.83 % | 2.61 % | 63,736 | 1.52 | 8 | 0.0581 % | 2,460.7 |
| SplitShare | 5.36 % | 3.10 % | 55,878 | 0.33 | 4 | 0.0546 % | 2,499.5 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0581 % | 2,250.1 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.66 % | 3.67 % | 110,197 | 0.49 | 13 | 0.1360 % | 2,137.5 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.34 % | 5.37 % | 105,366 | 14.69 | 17 | 0.1987 % | 2,261.9 |
| FixedReset | 5.14 % | 3.11 % | 210,405 | 2.46 | 61 | 0.1425 % | 2,338.7 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 5.06 % | 4.47 % | 210,755 | 4.05 | 46 | 0.0831 % | 2,209.5 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| BAM.PR.T | FixedReset | -1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2041-10-31 Maturity Price : 22.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.36 Bid-YTW : 4.16 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Deemed-Retractible | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.74 Bid-YTW : 5.59 % |
| BAM.PR.K | Floater | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2041-10-31 Maturity Price : 14.82 Evaluated at bid price : 14.82 Bid-YTW : 3.57 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.60 Bid-YTW : 4.17 % |
| GWO.PR.J | FixedReset | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2013-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.30 Bid-YTW : 3.75 % |
| IAG.PR.F | Deemed-Retractible | 1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.00 Bid-YTW : 5.49 % |
| MFC.PR.D | FixedReset | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-06-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.87 Bid-YTW : 3.93 % |
| BAM.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 1.54 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2041-10-31 Maturity Price : 22.01 Evaluated at bid price : 22.35 Bid-YTW : 5.36 % |
| SLF.PR.F | FixedReset | 1.59 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-06-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.78 Bid-YTW : 3.41 % |
| CIU.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 1.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2041-10-31 Maturity Price : 23.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.39 Bid-YTW : 4.76 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset | 1.64 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.75 Bid-YTW : 3.43 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| IAG.PR.C | FixedReset | 101,318 | Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 45,800, both at 26.50. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2013-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.40 Bid-YTW : 3.77 % |
| RY.PR.D | Deemed-Retractible | 84,650 | RBC sold 10,000 to Nesbitt at 25.03, then crossed 66,500 at 25.00. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2016-02-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.02 Bid-YTW : 4.43 % |
| BNS.PR.Z | FixedReset | 48,060 | Recent secondary offering. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.92 Bid-YTW : 3.35 % |
| CM.PR.E | Perpetual-Premium | 39,110 | Desjardins crossed 16,300 at 25.00. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2041-10-31 Maturity Price : 24.68 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 5.63 % |
| ENB.PR.B | FixedReset | 35,815 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2017-06-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.60 Bid-YTW : 3.61 % |
| BNS.PR.X | FixedReset | 31,845 | RBC crossed 22,100 at 27.00. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2014-04-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.92 Bid-YTW : 3.03 % |
| There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| GWO.PR.M | Deemed-Retractible | Quote: 25.74 – 28.58 Spot Rate : 2.8400 Average : 1.5438 YTW SCENARIO |
| ELF.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.50 – 21.14 Spot Rate : 0.6400 Average : 0.4064 YTW SCENARIO |
| CM.PR.K | FixedReset | Quote: 26.25 – 26.75 Spot Rate : 0.5000 Average : 0.3334 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 24.60 – 25.04 Spot Rate : 0.4400 Average : 0.3096 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.C | Deemed-Retractible | Quote: 21.31 – 21.69 Spot Rate : 0.3800 Average : 0.2592 YTW SCENARIO |
| BAM.PR.T | FixedReset | Quote: 24.36 – 24.75 Spot Rate : 0.3900 Average : 0.2716 YTW SCENARIO |