February 3, 2012

Very nice US jobs number today:

The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest in three years as payrolls climbed more than forecast, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates low until late 2014.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The 243,000 increase in jobs was the biggest in nine months and exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Service industries grew by the most in a year, according to a separate report.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.5 percent to 1,344.90 at the close of trading in New York, extending the best start to a year since 1987. The index is up 6.9 percent in 2012. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.92 percent from 1.82 percent late yesterday.

The median projection in the Bloomberg survey called for payrolls to rise by 140,000. Estimates of the 89 economists ranged from increases of 95,000 to 225,000. Revisions added a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December.

The most left wing PM since Trudeau just can’t stop meddling with the economy:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper drew an apparent line in the sand on foreign takeovers on Friday, saying he wanted to see BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion grow “as a Canadian company” and questioning whether hostile takeovers of key domestic firms are in the country’s best interests.

“Takeovers of critical technology that the government’s invested in, or … hostile takeovers of key Canadian businesses, are obviously something that I think is widely understood is not in this country’s interest,” Mr. Harper said.

Well, it’s been a week and I still don’t see OSFI doing the decent thing and releasing the documents obtained by Bloomberg with a Freedom of Information request:

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney talks about the potential impact of the so-called Volcker rule on the trading of government bonds, the European Central Bank’s efforts to ease the region’s debt crisis and bank capital regulations. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)
Attachment: Documents Obtained by Bloomberg. .Canadian lenders are loosening standards, offering mortgages similar to U.S. subprime loans that pose an “emerging risk” to financial institutions, according to the country’s banking regulator.

Banks and other lenders are becoming “increasingly liberal” with mortgages and home-equity credit lines that don’t require individuals to prove their income, according to 152 pages of documents obtained by Bloomberg News under freedom of information law from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The mortgages, typically granted to the self-employed and recent immigrants, “have some similarities to non-prime loans in the U.S. retail lending market,” the documents show.

But then, you don’t often see OSFI doing the decent thing.

Another very strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums winning 33bp (taking the median YTW down to -8.58%), FixedResets gaining 28bp and DeemedRetractibles up 36bp. All fourteen entries on the Performance Highlights table wer winners. Volume continued to be extremely heavy.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7198 % 2,431.8
FixedFloater 4.69 % 4.06 % 38,432 17.25 1 0.2475 % 3,323.9
Floater 2.75 % 2.96 % 61,915 19.82 3 0.7198 % 2,625.7
OpRet 4.81 % -1.15 % 67,462 1.29 6 0.1447 % 2,531.8
SplitShare 5.30 % -0.84 % 79,540 0.85 4 0.0800 % 2,641.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1447 % 2,315.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.30 % -8.58 % 109,158 0.09 26 0.3320 % 2,233.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.03 % 4.91 % 191,732 15.61 4 0.4240 % 2,456.3
FixedReset 5.00 % 2.45 % 222,931 2.32 65 0.2815 % 2,402.6
Deemed-Retractible 4.85 % 0.90 % 223,807 0.97 45 0.3607 % 2,336.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Premium 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-04
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : -29.01 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 23.59
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.04
Bid-YTW : 2.01 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-04
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.38
Bid-YTW : -42.20 %
BMO.PR.K Deemed-Retractible 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-11-25
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.10
Bid-YTW : -0.52 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.24
Bid-YTW : 2.94 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Premium 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-04
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : -6.99 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-04
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : -14.15 %
CU.PR.A Perpetual-Premium 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-03-04
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.73
Bid-YTW : -21.15 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 23.38
Evaluated at bid price : 25.76
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 2.37 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Premium 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 25.94
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.45
Bid-YTW : 2.16 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.N FixedReset 94,751 Nesbitt crossed 70,000 at 27.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.13
Bid-YTW : 2.08 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 54,420 Scotia crossed 53,000 at 25.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 47,181 RBC crossed 22,100 at 27.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.40
Bid-YTW : 2.79 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset 40,077 TD crossed 24,900 at 26.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.91
Bid-YTW : 2.27 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 38,487 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.21
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 34,802 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 23.23
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %
There were 67 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.16 – 23.63
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3164

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 22.73
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %

CM.PR.P Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.97 – 26.34
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2298

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.97
Bid-YTW : 0.28 %

BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.96 – 26.49
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3941

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.96
Bid-YTW : 2.55 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.70 – 26.08
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2608

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 26.72 – 27.00
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1805

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.72
Bid-YTW : 2.31 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.05 – 25.40
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2593

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-02-03
Maturity Price : 24.76
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

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