September 20, 2012

Fitch has joined the the cooling housing market bandwagon:

Canadian home sales activity slowed in August, due in part to steps taken by the government to tighten mortgage lending standards, which took effect in July. In Fitch Ratings’ view, these early signs of a cooldown in the housing market could be generally positive for the stability of the Canadian banking system and the sustainability of economic growth, though the full extent and pace of the housing correction remains unclear.

Although a correction in housing prices and a slowdown in residential construction spending would have some negative effects on economic growth in the near term, the introduction of more stringent mortgage regulations should help limit the impact of excess leverage on mortgage performance and bank balance sheets.

Reduced near-term risks of a housing bubble are likely to ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy, supporting the economic outlook at a time when weakening global growth and monetary stimulus in the U.S. would make it very difficult for the central bank to tighten credit conditions. Our current base case assumes that Canadian growth will remain steady at 2.2% annually through 2014.

But it takes two to make a market!

Get ready for a Canadian housing crash.

That’s the forecast from the folks at research firm Capital Economics, who say the collapse in house prices will feed into economic weakness and cause the Bank of Canada to back track on its insistence that the next move in domestic interest rates will be up.

“Home sales have slumped in recent months, not just in response to the tightening of mortgage lending standards. We fear this adjustment is only just starting and anticipate that the resulting excess supply of homes for sale will eventually drive home prices down by as much as 25 per cent,” the firm says in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, QE3 is having the intended primary effect:

Mortgage rates for 30-year U.S. loans tumbled, matching the lowest level on record and keeping borrowing costs down as the real estate market improves.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.49 percent in the week ended today from 3.55 percent, Freddie Mac said in a statement. It matched a record reached in July. The average 15-year rate slid to 2.77 percent from 2.85 percent, a new low, according to the McLean, Virginia-based company.

Low borrowing costs, spurred in part by the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage securities, have aided a housing-market recovery after the worst downturn since the 1930s. Sales of existing homes climbed to a two-year high in August, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. Single-family housing starts rose to the fastest annual rate since April 2010, the Commerce Department said.

Unauthorized trading or unauthorized losses?

Kweku Adoboli’s lawyers said UBS AG had a culture that overlooked trading limits and other rules as long as employees made money.

Adoboli lawyer Charles Sherrard said the bank became “more aggressive in terms of its desire to make profits” in 2011, while cross-examining one of Adoboli’s former bosses at a fraud trial in London today.

IOSCO has found another regulatory job-creation rationale:

The same lack of oversight that enabled traders to manipulate the London interbank offered rate plagues other benchmarks around the globe, according to a group of international securities regulators.

Fewer than half of the benchmark interest rates surveyed in the U.S., Europe and Asia were based on actual transactions, according to a confidential International Organization of Securities Commissions discussion paper obtained by Bloomberg News. Instead, the rates were calculated by methodologies that were unclear, not transparent and only rarely subject to specific regulatory standards or obligations, the group said.

It was an uneven day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums up 11bp, FixedResets winning 12bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was muted but uniformly positive. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1146 % 2,435.1
FixedFloater 4.53 % 3.89 % 33,260 17.48 1 0.2392 % 3,510.8
Floater 3.01 % 3.02 % 58,405 19.68 3 -0.1146 % 2,629.3
OpRet 4.66 % 3.34 % 54,434 1.46 4 0.3567 % 2,550.6
SplitShare 5.46 % 4.97 % 73,122 4.58 3 -0.0398 % 2,810.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3567 % 2,332.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.29 % 3.00 % 90,711 1.03 28 0.1080 % 2,286.0
Perpetual-Discount 4.95 % 4.93 % 96,810 15.63 3 0.0834 % 2,549.4
FixedReset 4.96 % 3.12 % 174,546 3.87 72 0.1226 % 2,431.2
Deemed-Retractible 4.95 % 3.52 % 120,914 2.35 46 -0.0043 % 2,368.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.92
Bid-YTW : 3.22 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.68
Bid-YTW : -0.05 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Premium 217,166 Desjardins crossed 64,900 at 25.89, then blocks of 80,000 and 68,100 at 25.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
ENB.PR.P FixedReset 124,202 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-09-20
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 118,703 TD crossed blocks of 48,400 and 50,000 at 26.17; RBC crossed 20,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 2.55 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 108,011 RBC crossed 100,000 at 26.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.98
Bid-YTW : -20.60 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet 104,692 Desjardins crossed 49,200 at 25.57; National crossed 50,000 at 25.58.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.34 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset 103,021 RBC crossed 100,000 at 26.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.37
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.86 – 25.20
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2348

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.56 – 25.94
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2929

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-10-20
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : 0.47 %

BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 17.25 – 17.66
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3259

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-09-20
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %

RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.68 – 25.90
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1425

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %

BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.28 – 25.82
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4753

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %

BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.90 – 26.05
Spot Rate : 0.1500
Average : 0.0914

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-07-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.