PrefBlog

Riding the tiger is easy … the hard part is getting off:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has repeatedly said a reduction in the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases wouldn’t mean an end to record easing. Investors are behaving as if they don’t believe him.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen to 2.19 percent, an almost 14-month high, from 1.63 percent on May 2 as investors bet the Fed will begin trimming bond buying. The surge is undermining Bernanke’s unprecedented effort to hold down borrowing costs and combat 7.6 percent unemployment.
…
Investors interpret policy makers’ talk of reduced bond purchases as a signal the Fed will begin to increase its main interest rate as soon as next year. They see a 47 percent chance the Fed will raise the rate to at least 0.5 percent from zero to 0.25 percent by December 2014, according to prices for federal funds futures contracts.

That’s an increase from about 20 percent probability two months ago. It also contrasts with a majority of 14 Fed officials who forecast in March that the FOMC won’t increase the federal funds rate until 2015 or later. The Fed has held the rate banks charge one another for overnight loans near zero since December 2008.

I mentioned a pseudo-scandal in the FX market yesterday … naturally it is being used as an excuse for more regulation:

Global regulators may start overseeing currency rates in a widening response to benchmark-rate setting scandals that began with revelations on the manipulation of Libor, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The International Organization of Securities Commissions, a Madrid-based group known as Iosco that harmonizes market rules, may propose final guidelines improving transparency and oversight of benchmarks, including the WM/Reuters rates, as soon as next month, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks aren’t finalized.

There was a bit of a rebound for the Canadian preferred share market today, with PerpetualPremiums winning 13bp, FixedResets up 10bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 6bp. The lengthy Performance Highlights Table has more winners than losers, for a change, with BAM PerpetualDiscounts continuing to head the loser list. Volume was above average.

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 13th, 2013 at 10:10 pm and is filed under Market Action. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.