June 16, 2014

There was some commentary on Friday’s Treasury action:

Treasury five-year notes extended the longest losing streak this year as traders bet improving economic data will push the Federal Reserve to raise rates as early as July 2015.

The gap between five- and 30-year yields narrowed to almost the least in five years before the Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to discuss a stimulus-exit strategy. The chance of a rate increase to 0.5 percent or more by the end of next July is 58 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on federal fund futures, up from 43 percent at the end of last month. Long bonds rose as investors reached for higher yields amid U.S. data showing low inflation and unrest in Iraq.

A report yesterday showed a 0.2 percent decrease in the producer price index compared with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 71 economists that called for a 0.1 percent gain. Over the past 12 months, costs climbed 2 percent, figures from the Labor Department showed.

The IMF had some more to say about the US economy:

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the U.S. economy this year and said the Federal Reserve may have scope to keep interest rates at zero for longer than investors expect.

The Washington-based IMF now sees the world’s largest economy growing 2 percent this year, down from an April estimate of 2.8 percent. The IMF left a 2015 prediction unchanged at 3 percent, and said it doesn’t expect the U.S. to see full employment until the end of 2017, amid low inflation.

And it appears that even government bond markets are losing liquidity:

Dealers globally have slashed their bond inventories 75 percent since 2007. Five of the six biggest Wall Street firms reported declines in fixed-income trading revenue last quarter.

“That has to bite and prevent dealers from supplying the balance sheet they did in the old days,” Gregory Whiteley, who manages government debt at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital LP, which oversees about $50 billion, said by telephone June 10. “It’s the sort of thing that rears its ugly head when it is least welcome — when it’s the greatest problem.”

Some cracks emerged in Europe last month, when investors dumped Italian, Spanish and Greek debt on speculation political parties opposed to the European Union would gain seats in parliamentary elections and derail the euro area’s recovery.

As the selloff intensified and liquidity decreased, the disparity in yields of 10-year Italian bonds between buyers and sellers based on bids and offers doubled to 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, on May 23, the highest this year.

It was a positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 18bp, FixedResets up 6bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 1bp. Volatility was reasonable. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6178 % 2,471.2
FixedFloater 4.52 % 3.78 % 28,285 17.82 1 0.4300 % 3,799.2
Floater 2.97 % 3.10 % 44,904 19.49 4 -0.6178 % 2,668.2
OpRet 4.47 % -7.09 % 109,347 0.09 2 -1.8136 % 2,657.2
SplitShare 4.81 % 4.20 % 58,247 4.12 5 0.0000 % 3,113.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.8136 % 2,429.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.52 % -1.45 % 81,948 0.08 17 0.0115 % 2,402.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.26 % 5.29 % 112,708 14.94 20 0.1823 % 2,551.1
FixedReset 4.50 % 3.71 % 212,650 6.77 79 0.0590 % 2,534.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 2.00 % 145,327 0.19 43 0.0130 % 2,531.8
FloatingReset 2.67 % 2.46 % 126,355 3.96 6 -0.1914 % 2,487.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet -3.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 16.91
Evaluated at bid price : 16.91
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 23.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 3.87 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PF.C FixedReset 239,289 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 127,500 RBC crossed blocks of 49,900 and 71,400, both at 25.17.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 3.30 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 113,144 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 70,970 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 68,515 TD crossed 50,000 at 25.36.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : 1.12 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 46,860 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 24.85 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 1.1500
Average : 0.6655

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 16.82 – 17.63
Spot Rate : 0.8100
Average : 0.5157

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 16.82
Evaluated at bid price : 16.82
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %

BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 16.90 – 17.20
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1906

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %

BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 16.91 – 17.22
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2073

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-06-16
Maturity Price : 16.91
Evaluated at bid price : 16.91
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %

BNS.PR.C FloatingReset Quote: 25.25 – 25.50
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1711

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.55 – 25.89
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2637

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %

One Response to “June 16, 2014”

  1. adrian2 says:

    Re: first entry in the Performance Highlights table
    FTS.PR.E Evaluated at bid price : 24.85

    Was the market maker asleep at the wheel?
    This morning TDW shows close = $25.80, current bid = $25.88, 52 week low = $25.15 (last August).

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