October 9, 2008

More bad news for the BCE buy-out:

The value of high-risk, high-yield loans used to fund leveraged buyouts tumbled amid speculation that more than 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of debt is being offered for sale, including assets seized from Iceland’s banks.

Who knows? Somebody’s going to take a huge and immediate mark-to-market loss if the deal goes through. BCE common is trading well below the buy-out price … all I can say is that whatever happens will be interesting!

There are reports that Paulson will adopt the PrefBlog plan of direct capital injections (which, one hopes, will be preferred shares, perhaps convertable, with a punitive dividend):

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is weighing plans for the U.S. government to invest in banks as the next step in trying to resolve the deepening credit crisis.

“These capital injections are something that Secretary Paulson is actively considering,” White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said in a briefing in Washington. She also said President George W. Bush will meet with Group of Seven finance ministers at the White House on Oct. 11.

Paulson told reporters in Washington yesterday that legislation Congress passed last week to rescue financial institutions gave him broad authority that he intends to use, beyond just buying mortgage-related assets on banks’ balance sheets. He indicated that an option available may be boosting companies’ capital with cash infusions.

Treasury fails were briefly mentioned on September 29. Bloomberg had an interesting update:

The Treasury began selling $40 billion in additional debt yesterday to relieve the pressure in the $7 trillion-a-day market for borrowing and lending securities. The Fed also cut the minimum fee it charges dealers to borrow securities from its open market account as part of its daily securities lending program. Demand for the relative safety of government securities has surged this month as the seizure in credit markets around the world deepened.

Dealers often let trades in the repurchase, or repo, agreement market go uncompleted when it is difficult to obtain the securities or the cost to get the securities becomes too expensive. Since dealers typically use repurchase agreements to finance their holdings, movements in the rates affect the cost of holding the securities in inventory.

A lockup in the Treasury repo market is indicative of extreme fear. People are not willing to let government paper out of their hands, even when secured by cash collateral.

PerpetualDiscounts enjoyed their thirteenth consecutive trading day of negative total return. The last up-day was September 22; since then, the index has lost 7.74%. Pretty boring, eh? Hell, common equities can lose that before lunch.

Another confused day, but CM issues picked up a little. You want wild? As I sign off, Tokyo’s down 10% … tomorrow could well be fun!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 5.43% 5.73% 76,273 14.71 6 +0.1299% 949.9
Floater 6.39% 6.45% 48,783 13.28 2 -1.7760% 632.0
Op. Retract 5.40% 6.39% 124,406 3.85 14 -0.2004% 975.6
Split-Share 6.33% 10.60% 57,895 4.01 12 -0.7627% 896.3
Interest Bearing 7.10% 9.88% 46,779 3.55 3 -0.3459% 975.4
Perpetual-Premium 6.51% 6.56% 54,775 13.10 1 0.0000% 953.7
Perpetual-Discount 6.68% 6.73% 175,619 12.94 70 -0.4306% 807.6
Fixed-Reset 5.18% 5.03% 1,039,526 15.34 10 -0.2134% 1,104.0

.

Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
FFN.PR.A SplitShare -8.7059% Closing quote 7.76-8.75, 3×2. Not as bad as it looks … the low for the day was $8.50, with the last trade of the day at 3:48. You can’t expect the Toronto Stock Exchange to expect its market makers to react in a mere 12 minutes, can you? And besides, the eight trades probably strained their systems. And this is a relatively small issue, after all. Markets will be much tighter on more heavily traded better names, particularly if they were issued this year, right? Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 10.38% based on a bid of 7.76 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00.
RY.PR.H PerpetualDiscount -6.6222% More garbage from the Toronto Stock Exchange. Last trade 22.20 at 3:14pm. Low for the day 22.20. Closing quote 21.01-22.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -6.1905% Asset coverage of just under 2.2:1 as of September 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 10.07% based on a bid of 7.88 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00.
HSB.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -4.7619% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.16% based on a bid of 18.00 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.I OpRet -4.5455% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.56% based on a bid of 21.00 and a softMaturity 2013-12-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (11.24% to 2013-6-30), BAM.PR.J (12.30% to 2018-3-30) and BAM.PR.O (9.56% to 2013-12-30); and with the perpetuals at about 9.25%.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -4.2045% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.67% based on a bid of 16.86 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.O PerpetualDiscount -3.8710% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.28% based on a bid of 22.35 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -3.7297% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.39% based on a bid of 17.81 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.Q PerpetualDiscount -3.6904% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.56% based on a bid of 21.40 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.K Floater -3.5714%  
BCE.PR.C FixFloat -3.4253%  
GWO.PR.F PerpetualDiscount -3.2648% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.19% based on a bid of 24.00 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -2.8571% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.69% based on a bid of 17.00 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -2.8283% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.57% based on a bid of 24.05 and a limitMaturity.
TCA.PR.Y PerpetualDiscount -2.7839% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 44.00 and a limitMaturity. Still slightly below the average PerpetualDiscount yield, just as it was when I complained about them based on March 20 data.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare -2.7545% Asset coverage of 1.5+:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.95% based on a bid of 8.12 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount -2.4611% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.26% based on a bid of 19.42 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.A FixFloat -2.2727%  
BAM.PR.J OpRet -2.2486% See BAM.PR.I, above
FBS.PR.B SplitShare -2.2222% Asset coverage of 1.5+:1 as of October 2, according to TD Securities. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.37% based on a bid of 8.80 and a hardMaturity 2011-12-15 at 10.00. Perhaps in an effort to halt the carnage, the fund announced a dividend increase for the capital units; Special Annual Retraction in December …. hmmm ….
BCE.PR.Y Ratchet -2.1739%  
PWF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -2.1088% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 23.21 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.R PerpetualDiscount -2.0000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.37% based on a bid of 22.05 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.9608% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.25% based on a bid of 22.00 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualDiscount -1.7857% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.25% based on a bid of 19.25 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat -1.7552%  
CU.PR.A PerpetualDiscount -1.7391% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.51% based on a bid of 22.60 and a limitMaturity.
FTN.PR.A SplitShare -1.7202% Asset coverage of 2.2+:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.00% based on a bid of 8.57 and a hardMaturity 2015-12-1 at 10.00.
ELF.PR.G PerpetualDiscount -1.7038% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.98% based on a bid of 15.00 and a limitMaturity.
TCA.PR.X PerpetualDiscount -1.6536% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 44.01 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -1.6216% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.57% based on a bid of 18.20 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.6120% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 17.70 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount -1.5978% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.41% based on a bid of 17.86 and a limitMaturity.
ALB.PR.A SplitShare -1.5313% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 as of October 2 according to Scotia Managed Companies. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.97% based on a bid of 23.15 and a hardMaturity 2011-2-28 at 25.00.
NA.PR.N FixedReset -1.4199%  
W.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.3333% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.63% based on a bid of 18.50 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount -1.3151% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.27% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.2975% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.80% based on a bid of 22.06 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -1.1789%  
BNA.PR.A SplitShare -1.1358% Asset coverage of 3.2+:1 as of August 31 according to the company. Coverage now of 2.0+:1 based on BAM.A at 21.48 and 2.4 BAM.A held per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 19.36% based on a bid of 20.02 and a hardMaturity 2010-9-30 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.B (11.38% to 2016-3-25) and BNA.PR.C (13.15% to 2019-1-10).
BNS.PR.J PerpetualDiscount -1.1034% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.12% based on a bid of 21.51 and a limitMaturity.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount -1.0959% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.26% based on a bid of 18.05 and a limitMaturity.
STW.PR.A InterestBearing -1.0204% Asset coverage of just under 1.6:1 as of October 2 according to Middlefield. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.61% (mostly as interest) based on a bid of 9.70 and a hardMaturity 2009-12-31 at 10.00.
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.0204%  
RY.PR.I FixedReset -1.0040%  
POW.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.0000% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.23% based on a bid of 20.20 and a limitMaturity.
BNA.PR.B SplitShare +1.4101% See BNA.PR.A, above
BMO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +1.4925% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.61% based on a bid of 20.40 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +1.5402% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 17.80 and a limitMaturity.
CU.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.5402% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.36% based on a bid of 17.80 and a limitMaturity.
GWO.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.7465% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.28% based on a bid of 18.06 and a limitMaturity.
LBS.PR.A SplitShare +1.7964% Asset coverage of just under 2.0:1 as of October 2, according to Brompton Group. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.00% based on a bid of 8.50 and a hardMaturity 2013-11-29 at 10.00.
BMO.PR.K PerpetualDiscount +1.8653% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.80% based on a bid of 19.66 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +1.8692% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.27% based on a bid of 18.53 and a limitMaturity.
ENB.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.9530% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 22.97 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.Y FixedReset +1.9992%  
CM.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +2.2043% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.40% based on a bid of 19.01 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.A OpRet +2.3779% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.75% based on a bid of 24.11 and a softMaturity 2015-12-18 at 25.00.
BAM.PR.H SplitShare +2.4390% See BAM.PR.I, above
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +2.4590% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.37% based on a bid of 18.75 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount +2.4845% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.15% based on a bid of 16.50 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.K PerpetualDiscount +3.2864% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.63% based on a bid of 22.00 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +4.4444% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.12% based on a bid of 23.50 and a limitMaturity.
W.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +7.0588% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.25% based on a bid of 19.11 and a limitMaturity.
BCE.PR.I FixFloat +7.4092%  
LFE.PR.A SplitShare +11.8335% Asset coverage of just under 2.2:1 as of September 30, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.51% based on a bid of 8.60 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
L.PR.A Scraps (would be OpRet but there are credit concerns) 121,225 CIBC crossed 79,900 at 21.80, then another 16,300 at the same price. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.93% based on a bid of 21.80 and a softMaturity 2015-7-30 at 25.00.
BMO.PR.I OpRet 117,115 Nesbitt crossed 75,000 at 25.16, then Scotia bought 19,000 from anonymous at 25.21, then Nesbitt crossed 18,000 at 25.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.04% based on a bid of 25.20 and a softMaturity 2008-11-24 at 25.00.
BNS.PR.M PerpetualDiscount 70,226 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 18.20. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.26% based on a bid of 18.05 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 30,038 CIBC crossed 12,000 at 16.45. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.49% based on a bid of 16.10 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 25,965 RBC crossed 10,000 at 22.73. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 21.01 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.Q PerpetualDiscount 24,390 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.56% based on a bid of 21.40 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today

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