June 23, 2017

A rate hike in Canada won’t come as soon as some people think, according to recent inflation numbers:

The Bank of Canada’s efforts to set the stage for a rate increase were set back Friday after data showed inflation pressures continuing to ease.

Canada’s consumer price index rose 1.3 percent in May from a year ago, the slowest pace this year, down from an annual pace of 1.6 percent in April, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. Another key gauge of price pressures that excludes gasoline and some other more volatile items fell to the lowest since 1999.

The inflation report undermines the case for a quick rate hike by the Bank of Canada even as the nation’s economy has been growing at a pace that is among the fastest in the developed world.

I remain convinced that it will come eventually – but trying to time it is a mug’s game. But there are doubts about US inflation:

Barely a week after raising short-term interest rates for the second time this year, Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on the timing of their next move, with some saying they won’t support another increase until they see a pickup in inflation.

Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, breached its annual 2% goal in February for the first time in nearly five years but has since retreated, sinking to 1.7% in April.

Fed officials in their public remarks since their policy meeting last week have disagreed on whether the recent weakening of price pressures is likely transitory or perhaps more persistent.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, New York Fed President William Dudley and Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester view the recent sluggishness as probably temporary, driven by some one-time factors such as new, more generous cellphone plans and slower growth in prescription drug prices.

Others such as regional Fed bank presidents Charles Evans of Chicago, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, Robert Kaplan of Dallas and James Bullard of St. Louis have expressed more concern about slower inflation.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5823 % 2,123.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5823 % 3,897.3
Floater 3.73 % 3.73 % 74,693 18.01 3 0.5823 % 2,246.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0942 % 3,053.4
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.32 % 59,532 3.88 5 -0.0942 % 3,646.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0942 % 2,845.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.30 % 4.53 % 67,096 3.43 25 0.1241 % 2,787.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.10 % 5.08 % 83,150 15.30 12 0.1777 % 3,006.8
FixedReset 4.42 % 4.11 % 198,252 6.51 96 0.0834 % 2,353.2
Deemed-Retractible 4.99 % 5.11 % 127,317 6.22 30 0.1474 % 2,901.6
FloatingReset 2.46 % 3.00 % 51,413 4.35 10 0.1524 % 2,563.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 24.28
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
W.PR.K FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 18.92
Evaluated at bid price : 18.92
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.R FixedReset 540,805 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 251,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.17
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 227,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 22.81
Evaluated at bid price : 23.69
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 146,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.53
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 86,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 51,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-07-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : -4.35 %
There were 19 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 24.76 – 24.98
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1487

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.33 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 0.1700
Average : 0.1177

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.33
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %

SLF.PR.J FloatingReset Quote: 15.90 – 16.15
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.2009

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.90
Bid-YTW : 8.53 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 22.01 – 22.21
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1561

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.60
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

NA.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 26.83 – 26.98
Spot Rate : 0.1500
Average : 0.1131

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.83
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 21.38 – 21.65
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.2363

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-06-23
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %

One Response to “June 23, 2017”

  1. Nestor says:

    in 1999 Canada 5 year benchmark rates were 5-6%, Bank rate was 5%…
    CPI-median and CPI trimmed were LOWER than today.

    so.. what seems to be the problem?

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