August 12, 2019

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There is some nervousness regarding the trade war:

Banks and technology companies drove a broad slide in stocks on Wall Street on Monday afternoon, knocking the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 300 points.

The sell-off added to losses the market racked up last week amid heightened anxiety over the continuing trade war between the United States and China.

The week of wild swings was fueled by investors’ worries that the fallout from the costly trade conflict would hurt corporate profits and hamper an already slowing global economy.

Traders shifted money into government bonds on Monday, sending bond prices higher. Yields move lower when bond prices rise, and as investors poured money into the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.65 percent from 1.73 percent late Friday. The yield is used as a benchmark for interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans.

The Bank of Canada has released a Staff Analytical Note by Rohan Arora, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jabir Sandhu and Jun Yang titled Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market:

Market participants in Canada have suggested that the liquidity of corporate bonds worsened in recent years. Yet, previous analysis by Bank of Canada staff (Fan et al. 2018b) shows that corporate bond market liquidity has generally improved since 2010. That conclusion relies on two commonly used liquidity proxies that are computed using data from transactions. However, most corporate bonds trade infrequently; in fact, only about 200 bonds transact on any given day. Consequently, infrequently traded bonds are missing from the existing liquidity proxies. This raises the concern that these proxies do not provide a complete picture of the liquidity conditions of the overall market.

We construct a new liquidity proxy using the price of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the ETF-based proxy of Canadian corporate bond market liquidity (ECML). ECML measures the average liquidity of about 900 corporate bonds each day. Many of these bonds transact infrequently and are consequently missing from the existing liquidity proxies. Nonetheless, using ECML leads us to the same conclusion as Fan et al. (2018b):

corporate bond market liquidity has generally improved since 2010

But, the longer sample available with ECML also shows that liquidity has remained relatively stable since 2014.

TXPR closed at 592.89, down 0.78% on the day. Volume was 2.09-million, high, but not notably so in the context of the past 30 days.

CPD closed at 11.83, down 0.76% on the day. Volume of 141,299 was the fourth-highest of the past thirty days.

ZPR closed at 9.42, down 1.15% on the day. Volume of 211,213 was the second-highest of the past 30 days, beaten only by the August 7 volume of 242,011.

Five-year Canada yields were down 1bp to 1.20% today.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8611 % 1,889.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8611 % 3,467.7
Floater 6.32 % 6.50 % 39,970 13.13 4 -0.8611 % 1,998.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0056 % 3,337.4
SplitShare 4.67 % 4.74 % 69,653 4.07 7 -0.0056 % 3,985.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0056 % 3,109.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % -11.89 % 54,021 0.09 9 0.0175 % 2,987.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.45 % 5.54 % 55,823 14.65 25 -0.1108 % 3,129.0
FixedReset Disc 5.74 % 5.42 % 143,593 14.80 66 -1.2557 % 2,029.2
Deemed-Retractible 5.24 % 5.97 % 66,578 7.90 27 -0.1676 % 3,109.5
FloatingReset 4.60 % 7.10 % 63,592 7.99 3 -1.0857 % 2,301.7
FixedReset Prem 5.16 % 4.47 % 156,760 1.93 21 -0.3216 % 2,579.3
FixedReset Bank Non 1.99 % 4.28 % 85,659 2.39 3 -0.3343 % 2,646.6
FixedReset Ins Non 5.45 % 7.76 % 90,105 7.99 21 -0.9178 % 2,090.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -4.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc -3.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc -3.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 6.91 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -3.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 15.76
Evaluated at bid price : 15.76
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset Disc -3.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc -3.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc -3.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 11.03
Evaluated at bid price : 11.03
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -3.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.47
Evaluated at bid price : 16.47
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -2.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 18.10
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 12.72
Evaluated at bid price : 12.72
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 12.52
Evaluated at bid price : 12.52
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.63
Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.11
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 11.02
Evaluated at bid price : 11.02
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non -2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.42
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.94
Evaluated at bid price : 20.94
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 11.35
Evaluated at bid price : 11.35
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 10.83 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.92
Evaluated at bid price : 16.92
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 15.37
Evaluated at bid price : 15.37
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.87
Evaluated at bid price : 16.87
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 12.90
Evaluated at bid price : 12.90
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.24
Evaluated at bid price : 16.24
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 10.05 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 12.64
Evaluated at bid price : 12.64
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.21
Evaluated at bid price : 16.21
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 15.87
Evaluated at bid price : 15.87
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Ins Non -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.56
Bid-YTW : 8.84 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.81
Bid-YTW : 8.76 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.02
Bid-YTW : 10.13 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 19.54
Evaluated at bid price : 19.54
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.19
Bid-YTW : 8.96 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.35
Evaluated at bid price : 16.35
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 9.04 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 19.48
Evaluated at bid price : 19.48
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.30
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.25
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
W.PR.K FixedReset Prem -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.95
Bid-YTW : 9.16 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.87
Evaluated at bid price : 17.87
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.40
Evaluated at bid price : 16.40
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 19.67
Evaluated at bid price : 19.67
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.90
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 106,120 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.70
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc 69,758 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 54,944 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 18.26
Evaluated at bid price : 18.26
Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non 51,890 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.81
Bid-YTW : 8.76 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 37,978 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 35,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 12.52
Evaluated at bid price : 12.52
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.76 – 16.47
Spot Rate : 0.7100
Average : 0.4152

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 15.76
Evaluated at bid price : 15.76
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.50 – 18.09
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.3540

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

BNS.PR.D FloatingReset Quote: 24.29 – 24.82
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3353

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.29
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %

BMO.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.44 – 22.00
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3816

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %

BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.48 – 19.88
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2279

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 19.48
Evaluated at bid price : 19.48
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.47 – 17.05
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.4086

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-12
Maturity Price : 16.47
Evaluated at bid price : 16.47
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

3 Responses to “August 12, 2019”

  1. cttglvr says:

    Hello to all. I’ve been following this site for quite a while and appreciate the knowledge James shares.

    A question for all. I’m retired and hold quite a few preferred shares, reset and perpetual. If companies might recall perpetuals like PWF.PR.I (I own) that yields 6% at $25 and trading over par should I sell that preferred now and move to a similar issue that has a similar yield and is less likely to be called trading at less that par? I’m hoping to avert a capital loss like I took…although small when the Union Gas perpetuals were taken out at $25.

    One final question…BPO.PR.T preferred reset is now yielding almost 8% and will for almost 5 years as it recently did a reset. Buy more or am I missing something?

  2. jiHymas says:

    With respect to BPO.PR.T: it reset effective 2019-1-1 at 5.383%, so it pays 1.34575. At today’s closing bid of 17.05, the Current Yield is 7.89%.

    However, it will reset again in the future and again and again until it is called for redemption (or it disappears in some other way; a Plan of Arrangement, perhaps); and given the low price a redemption at par in the foreseeable future is certainly not something you should be counting on.

    When it next resets, it will do so at a spread of 316bp over Canadas; given today’s five-year Canada yield of 1.20%, that implies a future dividend rate in the neighborhood of 4.36%, a far cry from the current rate. I calculate the ‘all-in’ yield (which includes an allowance for future changes in rate) to be a shade under 7.00% – quite a significant difference!

    An accurate assessment of yield must take into account potential changes in dividend, otherwise you’re just fooling yourself – which will generally be to your cost!

    I have developed a spreadsheet that allows you to calculate the expected, ‘all-in’ yield and provide a detailed example of its use in the post What is the Yield of HSE.PR.A?. I strongly recommend that use this spreadsheet and play with a little – see how differing assumption change the calculated yield and comparing it with other issues using the same underlying assumptions.

    As far as PWF.PR.I is concerned … congratulations on recognizing that redemption is a risk to be avoided, not a reward to be sought! That insight puts you well ahead of a lot of other investors in the preferred share market, I can tell you that much!

    I suggest you read my essay linked in the post Implied Volatility of Straight Perpetuals and come to grips with the choices involved. There’s a spreadsheet that goes with that too, which you can play with until you’re satisfied you are equipped to make decisions.

    With regard to specific advice … well, I can’t really do that for non-clients, particularly since I know nothing about your circumstances. Other posters on this blog suffer no such professional constraints, however, and maybe they will help a bit; the Financial Wisdom Forum is also a good resource, with many knowledgeable retail investors participating. You may also be interested in a subscription to my monthly newsletter, PrefLetter.

  3. cttglvr says:

    James…my sincere thanks for your informative reply. I will definitely follow the links you provided and do some more research.

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