PrefBlog

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem its currently outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares, Series 9 (Series 9 Shares) (TSX: ENB.PF.A) on December 1, 2019. As a result, subject to certain conditions, the holders of the Series 9 Shares have the right to convert all or part of their Series 9 Shares on a one-for-one basis into Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares, Series 10 of Enbridge (Series 10 Shares) on December 1, 2019. Holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 9 Shares into Series 10 Shares will retain their Series 9 Shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the conditions that: (i) if Enbridge determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 9 Shares outstanding after December 1, 2019, then all remaining Series 9 Shares will automatically be converted into Series 10 Shares on a one-for-one basis on December 1, 2019; and (ii) alternatively, if Enbridge determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 10 Shares outstanding after December 1, 2019, no Series 9 Shares will be converted into Series 10 Shares. There are currently 11,000,000 Series 9 Shares outstanding.

With respect to any Series 9 Shares that remain outstanding after December 1, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive quarterly fixed cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Enbridge. The new annual dividend rate applicable to the Series 9 Shares for the five-year period commencing on December 1, 2019 to, but excluding, December 1, 2024 will be 4.097 percent, being equal to the five-year Government of Canada bond yield of 1.437 percent determined as of today plus 2.66 percent in accordance with the terms of the Series 9 Shares.

With respect to any Series 10 Shares that may be issued on December 1, 2019, holders thereof will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Enbridge. The dividend rate applicable to the Series 10 Shares for the three-month floating rate period commencing on December 1, 2019 to, but excluding, March 1, 2020 will be 1.07704 percent, based on the annual rate on three month Government of Canada treasury bills for the most recent treasury bills auction of 1.66 percent plus 2.66 percent in accordance with the terms of the Series 10 Shares (the Floating Quarterly Dividend Rate). The Floating Quarterly Dividend Rate will be reset every quarter.

Beneficial holders of Series 9 Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion during the conversion period, which runs from November 1, 2019 until 5:00 p.m. (EST) on November 18, 2019, should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other intermediary for more information. It is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide the broker or other intermediary time to complete the necessary steps. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid.

ENB.PF.A is a FixedReset, 4.40%+266, that commenced trading 2014-3-13 after being announced 2014-3-4. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

Note that the reset rate is inconsistent with the rate for PPL.PR.G; it has been shown on PrefBlog that FixedReset Prospectuses Are Imprecise!

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., ENB.PF.A and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated). Inspection of the graph and the overall average break-even rates for extant pairs will provide a guide for estimating the break-even rate for the pair now under consideration assuming, of course, that enough conversions occur so that the pair is in fact created.

The market has lost enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are generally well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.73% and +1.03%, respectively, after removal of the outlying pair FFH.PR.C / FFH.PR.D from the junk group. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the ENB.PF.A FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, ENB.PF.A. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of ENB.PF.A continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the November 18 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 4th, 2019 at 1:22 am and is filed under Issue Comments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.