TXPR closed at 528.29, down 0.56% on the day. Volume today was 1.20-million, near the median of the past 21 trading days.
CPD closed at 10.57, down 0.19% on the day. Volume was 29,500, below the median of the past 21 trading days.
ZPR closed at 8.85, up 0.11% on the day. Volume was 250,860, fourth-highest of the past 21 trading days.
Five-year Canada yields were up to 3.89%.
I’m going to go out on limb here and suggest that the recent updraft in the GOC-5 rate is due in part to Canadian retail sales:
Canadians have ramped up their retail spending in recent months, despite higher interest rates that are meant to slow their consumption and bring down the rate of inflation.
Retail sales rose by 1.1 per cent in April, after a 1.4-per-cent slide in March, Statistics Canada said in a report on Wednesday. The April result easily surpassed its previous estimate of a 0.2-per-cent gain. In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.3 per cent.
Further gains appear to be on the way: In its preliminary estimate on Wednesday, Statscan said retail sales rose an additional 0.5 per cent in May, although that number is subject to revision.
…
Statscan’s report showed a broad-based increase in retail spending. Sales rose 3.3 per cent at general merchandise retailers in April from March. Receipts were up 3.1 per cent at clothing retailers and by 1.5 per cent at food and beverage retailers.There was, however, a decline at stores catering to the housing market. For instance, sales fell 1.3 per cent at electronics and appliance retailers in April.
… exacerbated by Powell’s June 21 remarks:
Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, told House lawmakers that the United States remains a “long way” away from low and stable inflation even 15 months into the central bank’s campaign to cool the economy and wrestle down rapid price increases.
Mr. Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. He told lawmakers that the labor market remained very tight and that inflation — while it has come down notably from its peak last summer — was still too fast. In light of that, the Fed could raise interest rates even higher than their current level of just above 5 percent.
“Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year,” Mr. Powell said. “Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.”
… and reports of UK inflation:
Britain’s inflation rate held steady in May, frustrating expectations that price increases would slow down, according to data released Wednesday, the day before the country’s central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates again.
Consumer prices rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier, the same as in April, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had forecast that prices would dip slightly. The data is likely to compound concerns that Britain’s cost-of-living crisis may intensify in the coming months as mortgage holders confront the burden of higher interest rates pushed through to tackle stubbornly strong inflation.
The Bank of England is expected to lift interest rates on Thursday for a 13th consecutive time, by a quarter-point to 4.75 percent, the highest since early 2008.
But the BoE went for a bigger hike:
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 21 June 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 5%. Two members preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 4.5%.
At the time of the previous MPC meeting and May Monetary Policy Report, the market-implied path for Bank Rate averaged just over 4% over the next three years. Since then, gilt yields have risen materially, particularly at shorter maturities, now suggesting a path for Bank Rate that averages around 5½%. Mortgage rates have also risen notably. The sterling effective exchange rate has appreciated further.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4405 % | 2,202.1 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4405 % | 4,223.7 |
| Floater | 10.67 % | 10.77 % | 44,481 | 9.00 | 1 | 0.4405 % | 2,434.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3646 % | 3,265.3 |
| SplitShare | 5.14 % | 8.49 % | 43,661 | 2.19 | 6 | -0.3646 % | 3,899.5 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3646 % | 3,042.5 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -1.3134 % | 2,560.6 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 6.66 % | 6.81 % | 39,761 | 12.72 | 31 | -1.3134 % | 2,792.2 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.89 % | 8.59 % | 85,784 | 11.05 | 63 | -0.4109 % | 2,119.8 |
| Insurance Straight | 6.59 % | 6.62 % | 58,164 | 13.08 | 19 | -0.5947 % | 2,729.0 |
| FloatingReset | 11.42 % | 11.02 % | 28,019 | 8.83 | 2 | 0.0000 % | 2,361.1 |
| FixedReset Prem | 6.97 % | 7.07 % | 253,282 | 3.73 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 2,318.2 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.4109 % | 2,166.9 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 6.40 % | 7.90 % | 94,250 | 11.56 | 9 | 0.2513 % | 2,309.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | -8.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.74 Evaluated at bid price : 19.74 Bid-YTW : 7.44 % |
| BIP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | -6.98 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 9.69 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -6.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 18.02 Evaluated at bid price : 18.02 Bid-YTW : 6.89 % |
| MIC.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | -3.66 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.19 Evaluated at bid price : 19.19 Bid-YTW : 7.08 % |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | -3.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 18.92 Evaluated at bid price : 18.92 Bid-YTW : 6.85 % |
| CU.PR.I | FixedReset Disc | -2.85 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 22.17 Evaluated at bid price : 22.50 Bid-YTW : 7.82 % |
| ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -2.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.06 Evaluated at bid price : 19.06 Bid-YTW : 7.12 % |
| BN.PF.H | FixedReset Disc | -2.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.48 Evaluated at bid price : 19.48 Bid-YTW : 9.45 % |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | -2.55 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 6.85 % |
| IFC.PR.E | Insurance Straight | -2.38 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.06 Evaluated at bid price : 20.06 Bid-YTW : 6.52 % |
| PVS.PR.K | SplitShare | -1.90 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2029-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.60 Bid-YTW : 8.35 % |
| BIP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | -1.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.87 Evaluated at bid price : 19.87 Bid-YTW : 8.54 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | -1.87 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.87 Evaluated at bid price : 17.87 Bid-YTW : 6.85 % |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | -1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 8.50 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.42 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.81 Evaluated at bid price : 20.81 Bid-YTW : 7.66 % |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | -1.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 16.10 Evaluated at bid price : 16.10 Bid-YTW : 9.48 % |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | -1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.96 Evaluated at bid price : 17.96 Bid-YTW : 6.70 % |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 18.75 Evaluated at bid price : 18.75 Bid-YTW : 8.08 % |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | -1.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.90 Evaluated at bid price : 19.90 Bid-YTW : 6.74 % |
| TRP.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | -1.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 15.50 Evaluated at bid price : 15.50 Bid-YTW : 9.93 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -1.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.45 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| TD.PF.J | FixedReset Disc | -1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 21.01 Evaluated at bid price : 21.01 Bid-YTW : 7.58 % |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.65 Evaluated at bid price : 19.65 Bid-YTW : 6.81 % |
| PWF.PF.A | Perpetual-Discount | -1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 6.73 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.62 % |
| IFC.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | -1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.20 Evaluated at bid price : 20.20 Bid-YTW : 6.54 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.24 Evaluated at bid price : 17.24 Bid-YTW : 6.57 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 14.10 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 9.44 % |
| BN.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 16.25 Evaluated at bid price : 16.25 Bid-YTW : 9.73 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 4.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.75 Evaluated at bid price : 17.75 Bid-YTW : 6.31 % |
| PWF.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | 5.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.84 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 10.91 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 12.20 Evaluated at bid price : 12.20 Bid-YTW : 9.02 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | 54,762 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 13.05 Evaluated at bid price : 13.05 Bid-YTW : 10.36 % |
| RY.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 27,268 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 17.16 Evaluated at bid price : 17.16 Bid-YTW : 8.64 % |
| BN.PF.F | FixedReset Disc | 22,412 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 15.80 Evaluated at bid price : 15.80 Bid-YTW : 10.19 % |
| TRP.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | 18,897 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 15.50 Evaluated at bid price : 15.50 Bid-YTW : 9.93 % |
| BN.PF.J | FixedReset Disc | 18,498 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.50 Evaluated at bid price : 20.50 Bid-YTW : 8.19 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | 16,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-22 Maturity Price : 20.81 Evaluated at bid price : 20.81 Bid-YTW : 7.66 % |
| There were 9 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 19.74 – 21.87 Spot Rate : 2.1300 Average : 1.2084 YTW SCENARIO |
| BIP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.00 – 21.64 Spot Rate : 1.6400 Average : 1.0554 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 18.02 – 19.11 Spot Rate : 1.0900 Average : 0.6339 YTW SCENARIO |
| CM.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 16.86 – 17.90 Spot Rate : 1.0400 Average : 0.6485 YTW SCENARIO |
| MIC.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 19.19 – 20.02 Spot Rate : 0.8300 Average : 0.6005 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | Quote: 18.92 – 19.70 Spot Rate : 0.7800 Average : 0.5787 YTW SCENARIO |