March 10, 2009

Julia Dickson of OFSI made some remarks to the Commons Finance Committee, but there was nothing startling there. She emphasized the importance of having high quality capital in the banks (lots of common!) but neglected to highlight OSFI’s recent debasement of capital quality.

More and more, I am taking the view that OSFI made a very serious mistake when changing the MCCSR rules at Manulife’s behest. To preserve the integrity of the regulatory system, they should have insisted on seeing some pain – in the form of forced equity issuance – first. There’s no point in having rules if they’ll be relaxed at the first hint of trouble; that attitude is coming home to roost with the GM Pension Plan.

Pierre Duguay of the Bank of Canada also made some remarks.

The end of the world appears to have been postponed:

Manulife Financial Corp. shares rallied from their lowest level in nine years, climbing 18 percent after CEO Vikram Pandit said Citigroup was profitable in January and February. Royal Bank of Canada surged 14 percent.

Canadian insurance companies, beaten down to the lowest in more than 11 years yesterday on concern that plunging equity markets will further erode their capital, led the rally in Toronto today.

Manulife, Canada’s largest insurer, advanced C$1.68 to C$10.88, rising from the lowest since March 2000. Smaller competitor Sun Life Financial Inc. gained 17 percent to C$17.53. Power Financial Corp. added 14 percent, the most more than 21 years.

Also helping financial shares today were remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urging an overhaul of financial regulations. Lawmakers and supervisors should rethink everything from the amounts firms set aside against potential trading losses and deposit-insurance fees to protections for money-market funds, Bernanke said in remarks prepared for an address to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

The speech was important enough to merit its own post.

A very sloppy day today, with prices all over the map; PerpetualDiscounts were modestly lower once the dust had cleared.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.4181 % 773.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 3.4181 % 1,250.1
Floater 5.04 % 5.94 % 63,881 13.87 3 3.4181 % 965.7
OpRet 5.32 % 5.35 % 143,359 3.91 15 -0.1702 % 2,025.7
SplitShare 7.14 % 10.17 % 55,493 4.80 6 -0.8860 % 1,555.1
Interest-Bearing 6.21 % 11.81 % 38,925 0.77 1 0.5203 % 1,890.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1003 % 1,421.3
Perpetual-Discount 7.59 % 7.54 % 167,055 11.86 71 -0.1003 % 1,309.0
FixedReset 6.27 % 5.88 % 689,004 13.69 31 -0.3529 % 1,764.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset -7.57 % Not as bad as it looks, but still pretty bad! This traded 16,515 shares in a range of 19.98-22.00 (!) before closing at 19.41-20.49 (!) 1×15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 19.41
Evaluated at bid price : 19.41
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -5.58 % A complete crush on heavy volume – heavy for a split-share, anyway! Traded 71,563 shares in a range of 7.76-8.41 before closing at 7.95-14, 2×3 … so it could have been worse! Asset coverage of 1.5-:1 as of February 27, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 7.95
Bid-YTW : 10.17 %
BNA.PR.B SplitShare -4.33 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of February 28 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-03-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 8.81 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset -3.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 23.02
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -3.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 13.20
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 9.05 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -3.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 10.94 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -3.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 19.46
Evaluated at bid price : 19.46
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
CM.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 18.19
Evaluated at bid price : 18.19
Bid-YTW : 8.06 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 14.75
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 8.83 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -2.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 8.43 %
RY.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.76
Evaluated at bid price : 15.76
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
BNA.PR.A SplitShare -2.19 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of February 28 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2010-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 14.37 %
TD.PR.M OpRet -2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
TD.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 18.17
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
CL.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 13.75
Evaluated at bid price : 13.75
Bid-YTW : 8.22 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 8.05 %
SLF.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 13.50
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 8.94 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 22.33
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 13.05
Evaluated at bid price : 13.05
Bid-YTW : 9.34 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 12.26
Evaluated at bid price : 12.26
Bid-YTW : 10.00 %
RY.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.49
Evaluated at bid price : 15.49
Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 14.30
Evaluated at bid price : 14.30
Bid-YTW : 8.19 %
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 8.16 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BNS.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 12.28
Evaluated at bid price : 12.28
Bid-YTW : 9.99 %
BNS.PR.O Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
NA.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 7.54 %
NA.PR.N FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 22.72
Evaluated at bid price : 22.79
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.08
Evaluated at bid price : 15.08
Bid-YTW : 8.67 %
ACO.PR.A OpRet 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 14.75
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 8.26 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 13.22
Evaluated at bid price : 13.22
Bid-YTW : 8.58 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.21 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 17.69
Evaluated at bid price : 17.69
Bid-YTW : 7.01 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 16.76
Evaluated at bid price : 16.76
Bid-YTW : 8.17 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset 2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
SBN.PR.A SplitShare 2.41 % Asset coverage of 1.5-:1 as of March 5 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.51
Bid-YTW : 8.73 %
BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 2.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.41
Evaluated at bid price : 15.41
Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 4.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 16.75
Evaluated at bid price : 16.75
Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 4.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 17.55
Evaluated at bid price : 17.55
Bid-YTW : 8.17 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 4.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 14.85
Evaluated at bid price : 14.85
Bid-YTW : 9.15 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 5.18 % Encouraging, but this one is known to be – ahem! – volatile. Traded 8,250 shares in a range of 7.01-50 before closing at 7.31-50, 3×3.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 7.31
Evaluated at bid price : 7.31
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 7.14 % Those eager to find a turnaround for the BAM floaters will like this. Traded 4,300 shares in a range of 7.25-53, before closing at 7.50-89, 75×5. Nice sized bid!
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 7.50
Evaluated at bid price : 7.50
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
LFE.PR.A SplitShare 8.17 % It did this on good volume, too! Traded 31,510 shares in a range of 5.90-24 before closing at 6.22-63, 48×22. Maybe all the life companes aren’t going to go bankrupt, after all! Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 as of February 27 according to the company … but it should be noted that both SLF & MFC are still down substantially month-to-date, despite today’s heroics. I’ll bet a nickel these preferreds are currently underwater.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 6.22
Bid-YTW : 20.43 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 321,387 National crossed a block of 272,000 at 15.00, then another 30,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 8.16 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 126,120 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.88
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
TD.PR.I FixedReset 103,359 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
DFN.PR.A SplitShare 71,563 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 7.95
Bid-YTW : 10.17 %
RY.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 50,330 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 15.62
Evaluated at bid price : 15.62
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
CM.PR.M FixedReset 47,360 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-03-10
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.76
Bid-YTW : 6.20 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

7 Responses to “March 10, 2009”

  1. prefhound says:

    I am amazed that common shares of financials could soar 5-20% on the same day the prefs weaken slightly (especially the levered split shares!)

    That’s not just an inefficient market — it’s insane ….

  2. adrian2 says:

    One theory could be that scared people who exited financials earlier and were hiding in prefs got enough courage to reverse their earlier trades, partly fueling the rally in financials by exiting their earlier pref positions.

    Thus sell at whatever price the prefs and buy at whatever price bank and insurance companies common stocks.

    Adrian

  3. prefhound says:

    Well, if your hypothesis were true, ttrading volumes should be higher, but I am not sure pref volumes were higher today.

    As to the strategy of replacing bank common with prefs, most 18-month performance is pretty similar. Citigroup is “forcing” prefs into common (no dividend and not cumulative), and James has already pointed out how “common-like” Canadian prefs are becoming.

    Anyway, we will see if there is a pref rally tomorrow…..

  4. jiHymas says:

    I have to say that I’m with prefhound on this one; and suggest that one potential way of rationalizing the situation is to assume that there is both a difference in risk-aversion between common and preferred investors; and that there is a lag in effects.

    But mostly I think the market is insane. Look at how stable the Fixed-Resets are. If all the problems that perpetualDiscounts were having were due to credit concerns, there would be a much higher correlation between Fixed-Resets and PerpetualDiscounts – after all, the former are just as perpetual as the latter, it’s only the coupon that varies.

    Prefs were starting to get “common-like” in the depths of the crisis, but quantitative analysis brings a measure of doubt about this. In the PerpetualDiscount Seminar I presented a graph of the rolling three year correlation between monthly total returns of PDs and Canadian financial common … it’s not nearly as high as you might think.

  5. prefhound says:

    The 3 year correlation is not high — mainly because the decline is only 18 months old. Par Prefs go down when common goes down and do nothing when common goes up. I looked at three pairs from Jan/08 to Mar 6 (biweekly changes):

    RY and RY.PR.W correlation = 0.34 (common down 42%; Pref 22%)
    BMO and BMO.PR.K correlation = 0.48 (common down 51%; Pref 30%)
    Citigroup and C.PR.W correlation = 0.71 (common down 96%; Pref 74%)

    So, broadly speaking, the more the common goes down the greater the correlation between prefs and common. In that respect, I’m not sure how much sense it makes to switch from common to pref in times of distress — this is one of the drawbacks of perpetual pref investing.

    Presumably the same correlation effects would work in reverse in a recovery, so the correlation might remain high until the “dip” was over (assuming it does end!).

  6. jiHymas says:

    The bi-weekly correlations you have computed are not particularly high, except for Citigroup – which is another kettle of fish entirely.

    So, broadly speaking, the more the common goes down the greater the correlation between prefs and common.

    In times of disaster, correlations go to 1.0!

  7. […] good day for prefs – PerpetualDiscounts are now up 1.89% Year-to-Date and up 5.20% from the low on March 10, but still down 5.36% from the high on January […]

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