{"id":26067,"date":"2014-08-13T21:21:06","date_gmt":"2014-08-14T02:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=26067"},"modified":"2014-08-13T21:21:06","modified_gmt":"2014-08-14T02:21:06","slug":"august-13-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=26067","title":{"rendered":"August 13, 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the wake of the August jobs number fiasco, it has been suggested that timeliness of delivery of other data should be improved<\/a>:<\/p>\n

It should be noted that the United States doesn\u2019t rely on a household survey to estimate its monthly job numbers. Oh, it conducts one, as a secondary measure; but its primary labour market numbers come from payroll data gathered from employers and government agencies. As such, they are a more accurate measure of actual payroll employment \u2013 they reflect things like paycheques issued and taxes paid.<\/p>\n

Actually, Statscan does this, too \u2013 it\u2019s called the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), and it, too, is published monthly. It relies even more heavily on government payroll-deduction data than the U.S. report, and is considered a highly reliable measure of the labour market.<\/p>\n

Notably, the SEPH has diverged considerably from the LFS in recent months. For the first five months of this year, the SEPH shows that employment rose by just 33,600 jobs, or an average of 6,700 a month. But according to the LFS, employment, the gains were almost double that \u2013 62,200, or an average 12,400 a month.<\/p>\n

The SEPH\u2019s big drawback is its lack of timeliness. SEPH data lag behind the LFS release by nearly two months; Statscan won\u2019t publish the SEPH for June until Aug. 28. Markets don\u2019t want to wait that long for such a key measure of economic health.<\/p>\n

David Watt, chief economist at HSBC Bank Canada, suggests that Statscan should deliver the SEPH at the same time as the LFS, as the U.S. does in its employment report.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The CMHC is crossing its fingers for a soft landing for housing prices<\/a>:<\/p>\n

According to CMHC\u2019s third quarter 2014 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition1, housing activity will continue to be supported by economic and demographic fundamentals for the rest of 2014 and into 2015.
…<\/b>
Multiple Listing Service\u00ae (MLS\u00ae2) sales are expected to range between 450,800 and 482,700 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 463,600 units. In 2015, sales are expected to range from 455,800 to 502,900 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 474,300 units.<\/p>\n

The average MLS\u00ae price is forecast to be between $394,700 and $405,700 in 2014 and between $396,500 and $416,900 in 2015. CMHC\u2019s point forecast for the average MLS\u00ae price calls for a 4.5 per cent gain to $399,800 in 2014 and a further 1.8 per cent gain to $406,800 in 2015.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And, surprisingly, bank holdings of insured mortgages are declining<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s largest banks, as a whole, have seen almost no growth in their insured mortgage portfolios recently, Macquarie Capital Markets analyst Asim Imran discovered.<\/p>\n

He found this out by digging through some data that the banking regulator \u2013 the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions \u2013 gathers.<\/p>\n

The growth that banks have shown in their mortgage portfolios of late has come from a strong uptick in uninsured mortgages, he concluded. Chartered banks saw uninsured mortgages rise 13.5 per cent year over year in May (for the Big Six banks it was 12 per cent). Insured mortgages, in contrast, were down 0.8 per cent month over month, and up just 0.1 per cent year over year.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Economic sanctions against naughty countries are having their intended effect<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Deutsche Bank AG plans to hire about 500 compliance, risk and technology employees in the U.S. by year-end, Jacques Brand, its North American chief executive, said in an interview last month. The bank is under investigation for potential violations of U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n

The hiring spree for compliance executives who understand U.S. sanctions laws comes in part from the trend toward appointing outside monitors as a condition of some settlements.
…<\/b>
\u201cHaving someone who has come directly from those regulatory bodies or otherwise understands the evolving rules and regulations gives firms a significant advantage,\u201d said Justin Mandel, co-founder of JW Michaels & Co., a New York-based recruitment firm that places compliance staff at banks and asset managers. \u201cOFAC is one of those areas where it\u2019s relevant.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s led banks to pay up for top talent. Compensation is often the main reason many leave government jobs.
…<\/b>
Recent Treasury job openings on the federal government\u2019s employment website, www.usajobs.gov, have included an OFAC sanctions compliance officer whose salary range is listed as $63,091 to $116,901 a year, according to the website.<\/p>\n

At a bank, someone with a similar level of experience as the compliance officer may receive a $170,000 salary, said Stuart Rosenthal, who\u2019s based in Montclair, New Jersey, and runs a recruiting firm focused on placing compliance and regulatory staff.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 11bp, FixedResets winning 16bp and DeemedRetractibles up 13bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was below average.<\/p>\n

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.18%, equivalent to 6.73% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates<\/a> now yield about 4.2%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 255bp, unchanged from August 6<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices<\/strong>
Values are provisional and are finalized monthly<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Index<\/td>\nMean
Current
Yield
(at bid)<\/td>\n		Median
YTW<\/td>\n		Median
Average
Trading
Value<\/td>\n		Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)<\/td>\n		Issues<\/td>\nDay’s Perf.<\/td>\nIndex Value<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ratchet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0691 %<\/td>\n2,643.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedFloater<\/td>\n4.17 %<\/td>\n3.41 %<\/td>\n27,211<\/td>\n18.58<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0000 %<\/td>\n4,156.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Floater<\/td>\n2.90 %<\/td>\n3.02 %<\/td>\n45,089<\/td>\n19.65<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.0691 %<\/td>\n2,733.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OpRet<\/td>\n4.02 %<\/td>\n-1.02 %<\/td>\n76,753<\/td>\n0.08<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.1570 %<\/td>\n2,721.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SplitShare<\/td>\n4.23 %<\/td>\n3.82 %<\/td>\n67,624<\/td>\n3.96<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0.0794 %<\/td>\n3,135.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-Bearing<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.1570 %<\/td>\n2,488.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Premium<\/td>\n5.49 %<\/td>\n-4.14 %<\/td>\n82,054<\/td>\n0.08<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n0.0855 %<\/td>\n2,436.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Discount<\/td>\n5.22 %<\/td>\n5.18 %<\/td>\n113,893<\/td>\n15.17<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n0.1114 %<\/td>\n2,599.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset<\/td>\n4.29 %<\/td>\n3.57 %<\/td>\n197,477<\/td>\n8.53<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n0.1643 %<\/td>\n2,564.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deemed-Retractible<\/td>\n4.98 %<\/td>\n-1.02 %<\/td>\n107,799<\/td>\n0.12<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n0.1260 %<\/td>\n2,560.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FloatingReset<\/td>\n2.65 %<\/td>\n2.07 %<\/td>\n80,236<\/td>\n3.83<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n-0.1574 %<\/td>\n2,520.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
Performance Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\nNotes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PR.P<\/td>\nDeemed-Retractible<\/td>\n1.27 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2014-09-12
\nMaturity Price : 25.75
\nEvaluated at bid price : 26.23
\nBid-YTW : -14.64 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volume Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nShares
Traded<\/td>\n		Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.A<\/td>\nFloater<\/td>\n304,335<\/td>\nDesjardins crossed three blocks; 100,000 shares, 42,600 and 50,000, all at 20.10.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.00
\nBid-YTW : 2.62 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BMO.PR.W<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\n215,710<\/td>\nRecent new issue<\/a>.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 23.14
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.00
\nBid-YTW : 3.57 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RY.PR.H<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\n116,375<\/td>\nNesbitt crossed 100,000 at 25.35.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 23.26
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.32
\nBid-YTW : 3.55 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PF.C<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\n88,262<\/td>\nRBC crossed 30,000 at 24.90.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 23.09
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.89
\nBid-YTW : 4.06 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PF.B<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\n74,553<\/td>\nRecent new issue<\/a>.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 23.17
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.03
\nBid-YTW : 3.60 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.L<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n68,846<\/td>\nTD crossed 65,000 at 24.89.
\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 24.54
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.85
\nBid-YTW : 5.16 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide Spread Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nQuote Data and Yield Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CIU.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\nQuote: 21.25 – 22.19
\nSpot Rate : 0.9400
\nAverage : 0.7298<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2044-08-13
\nMaturity Price : 21.25
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.25
\nBid-YTW : 3.38 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

PVS.PR.C<\/td>\nSplitShare<\/td>\nQuote: 26.16 – 27.00
\nSpot Rate : 0.8400
\nAverage : 0.6410<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2015-12-10
\nMaturity Price : 25.50
\nEvaluated at bid price : 26.16
\nBid-YTW : 3.44 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

TD.PR.Z<\/td>\nFloatingReset<\/td>\nQuote: 25.18 – 25.48
\nSpot Rate : 0.3000
\nAverage : 0.2086<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2018-10-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.18
\nBid-YTW : 2.31 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

CU.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\nQuote: 25.70 – 25.99
\nSpot Rate : 0.2900
\nAverage : 0.2015<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2017-06-01
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.70
\nBid-YTW : 2.89 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

MFC.PR.L<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\nQuote: 24.91 – 25.15
\nSpot Rate : 0.2400
\nAverage : 0.1639<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Hard Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-01-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.91
\nBid-YTW : 3.87 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

RY.PR.L<\/td>\nFixedReset<\/td>\nQuote: 26.56 – 26.84
\nSpot Rate : 0.2800
\nAverage : 0.2142<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2019-02-24
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 26.56
\nBid-YTW : 2.77 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the wake of the August jobs number fiasco, it has been suggested that timeliness of delivery of other data should be improved: It should be noted that the United States doesn\u2019t rely on a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26067\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}