{"id":385,"date":"2006-12-12T23:07:33","date_gmt":"2006-12-13T03:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/?p=385"},"modified":"2006-12-12T23:07:33","modified_gmt":"2006-12-13T03:07:33","slug":"powprb-current-call-so-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=385","title":{"rendered":"POW.PR.B : Current call, so what?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The yield-to-worst on POW.PR.B is now negative. It closed today at 26.46-65, but it is currently callable at $26.00:<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"4\">POW.PR.B <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefshares.com\/glossary.html#embeddedOptions\">Embedded Options<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Redemption<\/td>\n<td>2006-11-28<\/td>\n<td>2007-11-27<\/td>\n<td>26.000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Redemption<\/td>\n<td>2007-11-28<\/td>\n<td>2008-11-27<\/td>\n<td>25.750000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Redemption<\/td>\n<td>2008-11-28<\/td>\n<td>2009-11-27<\/td>\n<td>25.500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Redemption<\/td>\n<td>2009-11-28<\/td>\n<td>2010-11-27<\/td>\n<td>25.250000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Redemption<\/td>\n<td>2010-11-28<\/td>\n<td>INFINITE DATE<\/td>\n<td>25.000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>This gives rise to:\u00a0<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"5\">POW.PR.B <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefshares.com\/glossary.html#optionCalculationList\">optionCalculationList<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2007-01-11<\/td>\n<td>YTM: -6.26 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: -0.51 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 35.43 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2007-04-11<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 2.20 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 0.72 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 5.03 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2007-12-28<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 3.32 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 3.32 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 7.25 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2008-12-28<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 3.76 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 3.76 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 3.72 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2009-12-28<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 3.93 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 3.93 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 2.86 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Call<\/td>\n<td>2010-12-28<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 4.03 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 4.03 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 2.57 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Option Certainty<\/td>\n<td>2035-01-21<\/td>\n<td>YTM: 5.05 %<\/td>\n<td>[Restricted: 5.05 %]<\/td>\n<td>(Prob: 43.13 %)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ve uploaded some graphs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2006\/12\/POWPRB_YTW1.pdf\">Yield-to-Worst<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2006\/12\/POWPRB_FBP.pdf\">Flat Bid Price<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2006\/12\/POWPRB_MDTW1.pdf\">Modified-Duration-to-Worst<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I can&#8217;t say I really understand why the price should have gone up so spectacularly recently. One can make the usual argument that since the redemption premium declines by $0.25 annually, the net cost to the company is not the coupon of 1.3375, but $0.25 less than this, or $1.0875, but this is less than the current financing cost only by half the saving. The company&#8217;s treasurer has the immediate option of reducing permanent costs by about $0.125 p.a. (gross of issuance costs), at the expense of a few years loss of charges &#8230; but this analysis assumes that the current refinancing level will be available a few years hence. It might not be.<\/p>\n<p>And why should the price spike now?<\/p>\n<p>The best an investor can reasonably hope for is a yield of 4.03% if it lasts until its $25.00 call; there are lots of issues with similar characterists that have such a yield without the risk of negative returns. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/?p=362\">The new RY.PR.D issue<\/a> settles tomorrow and yields 4.50%. RY.PR.W has a yield to worst of 4.02%, with a\u00a02014 call date, without the risk of an intervening call. The same can be said for POW.PR.D, pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.36% based on a call 2014-11-30, with no intervening call risk &#8211; and it&#8217;s a more active trader and the same name!<\/p>\n<p>So the whole situation is very mysterious and I consider POW.PR.B to be very expensive at current levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The yield-to-worst on POW.PR.B is now negative. It closed today at 26.46-65, but it is currently callable at $26.00: POW.PR.B Embedded Options Redemption 2006-11-28 2007-11-27 26.000000 Redemption 2007-11-28 2008-11-27 25.750000 Redemption 2008-11-28 2009-11-27 25.500000 Redemption &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-issue-comments"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/385\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}