Stock Market Bubbles: Some Historical Perspective<\/a>, by Achla Marathe and Edward Renshaw:<\/p>\n\nDeclines of Three Percent or More in the S&P 500 Stock Price Index After it
\nHas Achieved a New All Time High Since September 7, 1929
\n<\/h4>\n
\n\n % Change S&P\n Date of Value S&P Index ----------------------------------------- Trading\n------------------- --------------- Peak to Peak to Day\n Peak Trough Peak Trough Peak Trough Duration\n (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)n\n\n 9\/ 7\/29 6\/ 1\/32 31.92 4.40** --- -86.2\n\n10\/ 6\/54 10\/29\/54 32.76 31.68 2.6 - 3.3 10\n 1\/ 3\/55 1\/17\/55 36.75 34.58 12.2$ - 5.9# 40H\n 3\/ 4\/55 3\/14\/55 37.52 34.96 2.1$ - 6.8 19\n 4\/21\/55 5\/17\/55 38.32* 36.97 2.1 - 3.5 7\n 7\/27\/55 8\/10\/55 43.76 41.74 14.2 - 4.6# 37\n 9\/23\/55 10\/11\/55 45.63 40.80 4.3 -10.6 13\n11\/14\/55 1\/23\/56 46.41 43.11 1.7$ - 7.1 0\n 3\/20\/56 5\/28\/56 48.87 44.10 5.3$ - 9.8 7\n 8\/ 2\/56 10\/22\/57 49.74 38.98** 1.8 -21.6 13\n\n11\/17\/58 11\/25\/58 53.24 51.02 7.0 - 4.2# 37\n 1\/21\/59 2\/ 9\/59 56.04 53.58 5.3$ - 4.4# 27\n 5\/29\/59 6\/10\/59 58.68 56.36 4.7 - 4.0# 61H\n 8\/ 3\/59 10\/25\/60 60.71* 52.30** 3.5 -13.9 22\n\n 4\/17\/61 4\/24\/61 66.68 64.40 9.8 - 3.4# 54H\n 5\/17\/61 7\/18\/61 67.39E 64.41D 1.1 - 4.4 2\n 9\/ 6\/61 9\/25\/61 68.46E 65.77D 1.6 - 3.9 22\n12\/12\/61 6\/26\/62 72.64E* 52.32D** 6.1 -28.0 35\n\n10\/28\/63 11\/22\/63 74.48 69.61 2.5 - 6.5 39\n 5\/12\/64 6\/ 8\/64 81.16 78.64 9.0 - 3.1# 101H\n 7\/17\/64 8\/26\/64 84.01 81.32 3.5 - 3.2# 15\n11\/20\/64 12\/15\/64 86.28* 83.22 2.7 - 3.5 17\n 5\/13\/65 6\/28\/65 90.27 81.60 4.6 - 9.6 81\n 2\/ 9\/66 10\/ 7\/66 94.06 73.20** 4.2 -22.2 94\n\n 5\/ 8\/67 6\/ 5\/67 94.58 88.43 .6 - 6.5 2\n 8\/ 4\/67 8\/28\/67 95.83 92.64 1.3 - 3.3 4\n 9\/25\/67 3\/ 5\/68 97.59 87.72 1.8$ -10.1 8\n 7\/11\/68 8\/ 2\/68 102.39* 96.63 4.9 - 5.6 44H\n11\/29\/68 5\/26\/70 108.37 69.29** 5.8 -36.1 38\n\n 4\/12\/72 5\/ 9\/72 110.18 104.74D 1.7 - 4.9 24\n 5\/26\/72 7\/20\/72 110.66 105.81D .4 - 4.4 2\n 8\/14\/72 10\/16\/72 112.55 106.77D 1.7 - 5.1 4\n12\/11\/72 12\/21\/72 119.12* 115.11D 5.8 - 3.4# 26H\n 1\/11\/73P 10\/ 3\/74 120.24 62.28D** .9 -48.2 6\n 8\/22\/80P 8\/28\/80 126.02 122.08 4.8$ - 3.1# 26H\n 9\/22\/80P 9\/29\/80 130.40 123.54 3.5$ - 5.3 13\n10\/15\/80P 10\/30\/80 133.70 126.29 2.5$ - 5.5 7\n11\/28\/80P 8\/12\/82 140.52* 102.42** 5.1$ -27.1 11\n\n11\/ 9\/82 11\/23\/82 143.02 132.93 1.8$ - 7.1 4\n 1\/10\/83 1\/24\/83 146.78 139.97 2.6$ - 4.6 2\n 6\/22\/83 8\/ 8\/83 170.99 159.18 16.5 - 6.9# 94H\n10\/10\/83 7\/24\/84 172.65* 147.82** 1.0$ -14.4 0\n\n 2\/13\/85 3\/15\/85 183.35 176.53 6.2$ - 3.7# 17\n 6\/ 6\/85 6\/13\/85 191.06 185.33 4.2 - 3.0# 29\n 7\/17\/85 9\/25\/85 195.65 180.66 2.4 - 7.7 13\n 1\/ 7\/86 1\/22\/86 213.80* 203.49 9.3$ - 4.8# 37\n 3\/27\/86 4\/ 7\/86 238.97 228.63 11.8 - 4.3# 37\n 4\/21\/86 5\/16\/86 244.74 232.76 2.4$ - 4.9 3\n 5\/29\/86 6\/10\/86 247.98 239.58 1.3$ - 3.4 2\n 7\/ 2\/86 7\/15\/86 252.70 233.66 1.9 - 7.5 5\n 9\/ 4\/86 9\/29\/86 253.83 229.91 .4$ - 9.4 6\n12\/ 2\/86 12\/31\/86 254.00 242.17 .1$ - 4.7 0\n 3\/24\/87 3\/30\/87 301.64 289.20 18.8 - 4.1# 53H\n 4\/ 6\/87 5\/20\/87 301.95 278.21D .1 - 7.9 0\n 8\/25\/87 12\/ 4\/87 336.77 223.92** 11.5 -33.5 50\n\n 9\/ 1\/89 9\/14\/89 353.73 343.16 5.0$ - 3.0# 27H\n10\/ 9\/89 1\/30\/90 359.80 322.98 1.7$ -10.2 4\n 6\/ 4\/90P 6\/26\/90 367.40 352.06 2.1$ - 4.2 4\n 7\/16\/90P 10\/11\/90 368.95* 295.46** .4 -19.9 0\n\n 4\/17\/91 5\/15\/91 390.45 368.57 5.8 - 5.6# 43\n 8\/ 6\/91 8\/19\/91 390.62 376.47 .0$ - 3.6 0\n 8\/28\/91 10\/ 9\/91 396.64 376.80 1.5 - 5.0 4\n11\/13\/91 11\/29\/91 397.41E* 375.22 .2 - 5.6 1\n 1\/15\/92 4\/ 8\/92 420.77E 394.50 5.9 - 6.2 14\n 8\/ 3\/92 8\/24\/92 425.09E 410.72 1.0$ - 3.4 3\n 9\/14\/92 10\/ 9\/92 425.27E 402.66D .0$ - 5.3 0\n 2\/ 4\/93 2\/18\/93 449.56E 431.90 5.7 - 3.9# 51\n 3\/10\/93 4\/26\/93 456.33E 433.54D 1.5$ - 5.0 2\n 2\/ 2\/94 4\/ 4\/94 482.00E 438.92D 5.6 - 8.9 116\n12\/13\/95 1\/10\/96 621.69 598.48D 29.0 - 3.7# 210H\n 2\/12\/96 4\/11\/96 661.45 631.18D 6.4 - 4.6# 10\n 5\/24\/96 7\/24\/96 678.51 626.65D 2.6$ - 7.6 9\n11\/18\/96 12\/16\/96 757.03 720.98D 15.1G$ - 4.8# 51\n 2\/18\/97 816.29 D 7.8G ? 26\n\n<\/pre>\n\nFootnotes for Table 20.1<\/p>\n
\n(5)n. Number of additional trading days after the recovery to a first new
\nhigh to the last new high or peak date.<\/p>\n
\n* Fourth new high to be followed by a three percent decline for the bull
\nmarket in question.<\/p>\n
\n**A major bear market low.<\/p>\n
\n$ identifies cases where the first new high was associated with a daily gain
\nof 1.1 percent or more.<\/p>\n
\n#Cases where the peak to trough decline in column (4) is less than the
\npreceding peak to peak increase in column (3).<\/p>\n
\nD identifies cases where the first new high occurred after a month when the
\ndividend yield for the S&P index was equal to 3.0 percent or less.<\/p>\n
\nE identifies cases where the first new high occurred after a quarter when
\nthe P\/E ratio for the S&P index was equal to 20.50 or more.<\/p>\n
\nG identifies peak to peak gains that may have encouraged Fed Chairman Alan
\nGreenspan to warn investors about the possibility of irrational exuberance.<\/p>\n
\nH identifies the trading day duration record, without a cumulative decline
\nof three percent or more, for each bull market separated by cumulative
\ndeclines of 13 percent or more.<\/p>\n
\nP identifies declines of three percent or more that occurred during years
\ncontaining a recessionary peak designated by the National Bureau of Economic
\nResearch.<\/p>\n
\nSource of basic data: The Practical Forecasters’ Almanac<\/i>(Burr Ridge,
\nIllinois: Irwin, 1992), Table 3.05 and Standard and Poor’s Security
\nPrice Index Record<\/i>.<\/p>\n
Update<\/b>: See also this source<\/a>:<\/p>\nS&P 500 Index:<\/p>\n
March 24, 2000 closes at 1527.46 (Peak)
\nJuly 23, 2002 closes at 797.70 (Trough)
\nPercentage decline from Peak to Trough: 47.78%<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
and <\/p>\n
![](\"http:\/\/www.facwealth.com\/Newsletter-Articles\/images\/Bar-Stool-Economics_6.gif\")
<\/div>\n
from FAC Wealth Management<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This would have been a better post yesterday, but I’ve never claimed to be much good at market timing! The IMF has published its World Economic Outlook, October 2008, Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries. There’s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-banking-crisis-2008","category-interesting-external-papers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3941\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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