{"id":40118,"date":"2020-01-14T00:06:07","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T05:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=40118"},"modified":"2020-01-14T00:06:07","modified_gmt":"2020-01-14T05:06:07","slug":"january-13-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=40118","title":{"rendered":"January 13, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

The big argument against market timing is chaos theory. But can chaos be mitigated<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Half a century ago, the pioneers of chaos theory<\/a> discovered that the \u201cbutterfly effect\u201d makes long-term prediction impossible. Even the smallest perturbation to a complex system (like the weather, the economy or just about anything else) can touch off a concatenation of events that leads to a dramatically divergent future. Unable to pin down the state of these systems precisely enough to predict how they\u2019ll play out, we live under a veil of uncertainty.<\/p>\n

But now the robots are here to help.<\/p>\n

In a series of results reported in the journals Physical Review Letters and Chaos<\/a>, scientists have used machine learning<\/a> \u2014 the same computational technique behind recent successes in artificial intelligence \u2014 to predict the future evolution of chaotic systems out to stunningly distant horizons. The approach is being lauded by outside experts as groundbreaking and likely to find wide application.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"kaos_200113\"<\/a>
Click for Big<\/i><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices<\/strong>
Values are provisional and are finalized monthly<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Index<\/td>\nMean
Current
Yield
(at bid)<\/td>\n		Median
YTW<\/td>\n		Median
Average
Trading
Value<\/td>\n		Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)<\/td>\n		Issues<\/td>\nDay’s Perf.<\/td>\nIndex Value<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ratchet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.6481 %<\/td>\n2,124.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedFloater<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.6481 %<\/td>\n3,897.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Floater<\/td>\n5.74 %<\/td>\n5.87 %<\/td>\n48,573<\/td>\n14.10<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.6481 %<\/td>\n2,246.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OpRet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0655 %<\/td>\n3,433.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SplitShare<\/td>\n4.79 %<\/td>\n4.51 %<\/td>\n32,598<\/td>\n3.75<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0.0655 %<\/td>\n4,099.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-Bearing<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0655 %<\/td>\n3,198.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Premium<\/td>\n5.59 %<\/td>\n-2.64 %<\/td>\n59,414<\/td>\n0.09<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n0.0539 %<\/td>\n3,054.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Discount<\/td>\n5.27 %<\/td>\n5.34 %<\/td>\n69,933<\/td>\n14.91<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n-0.0162 %<\/td>\n3,293.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Disc<\/td>\n5.41 %<\/td>\n5.59 %<\/td>\n196,954<\/td>\n14.57<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n0.4018 %<\/td>\n2,206.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deemed-Retractible<\/td>\n5.15 %<\/td>\n5.26 %<\/td>\n72,236<\/td>\n14.91<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n0.2481 %<\/td>\n3,239.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FloatingReset<\/td>\n5.93 %<\/td>\n5.92 %<\/td>\n77,528<\/td>\n14.05<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.6768 %<\/td>\n2,581.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Prem<\/td>\n5.09 %<\/td>\n3.50 %<\/td>\n145,258<\/td>\n1.53<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n-0.0107 %<\/td>\n2,645.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Bank Non<\/td>\n1.94 %<\/td>\n3.76 %<\/td>\n63,141<\/td>\n1.99<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.0273 %<\/td>\n2,733.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n5.25 %<\/td>\n5.57 %<\/td>\n139,494<\/td>\n14.57<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n0.5260 %<\/td>\n2,234.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Performance Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\nNotes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EMA.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n-1.48 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 18.62
\nEvaluated at bid price : 18.62
\nBid-YTW : 5.97 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.Q<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.01 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 19.95
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.95
\nBid-YTW : 5.41 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.N<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.02 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 17.75
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.75
\nBid-YTW : 5.57 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRP.PR.F<\/td>\nFloatingReset<\/td>\n1.05 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 14.50
\nEvaluated at bid price : 14.50
\nBid-YTW : 6.22 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BIP.PR.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.07 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 22.16
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.60
\nBid-YTW : 5.56 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.C<\/td>\nDeemed-Retractible<\/td>\n1.08 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 21.33
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.60
\nBid-YTW : 5.25 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRP.PR.D<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.08 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 16.90
\nEvaluated at bid price : 16.90
\nBid-YTW : 5.89 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RY.PR.J<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.10 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.17
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.17
\nBid-YTW : 5.46 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.Q<\/td>\nDeemed-Retractible<\/td>\n1.12 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 23.85
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.40
\nBid-YTW : 5.29 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRP.PR.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.23 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 14.80
\nEvaluated at bid price : 14.80
\nBid-YTW : 6.00 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.F<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.23 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 13.14
\nEvaluated at bid price : 13.14
\nBid-YTW : 5.68 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.N<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.24 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 13.92
\nEvaluated at bid price : 13.92
\nBid-YTW : 5.21 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PF.D<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.27 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.50 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRP.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.28 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 12.68
\nEvaluated at bid price : 12.68
\nBid-YTW : 6.14 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IFC.PR.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.38 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 14.65
\nEvaluated at bid price : 14.65
\nBid-YTW : 5.76 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BAM.PR.X<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.47 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 13.80
\nEvaluated at bid price : 13.80
\nBid-YTW : 6.05 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.M<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.49 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 18.35
\nEvaluated at bid price : 18.35
\nBid-YTW : 5.40 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.L<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.69 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 17.50
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.50
\nBid-YTW : 5.45 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HSE.PR.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.86 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 19.21
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.21
\nBid-YTW : 6.82 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HSE.PR.G<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.92 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 19.14
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.14
\nBid-YTW : 6.76 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volume Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nShares
Traded<\/td>\n		Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CM.PR.O<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n82,465<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 17.26
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.26
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BMO.PR.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n64,742<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.53
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.53
\nBid-YTW : 5.47 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BNS.PR.I<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n62,189<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.31
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.31
\nBid-YTW : 5.22 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.M<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n61,905<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 18.35
\nEvaluated at bid price : 18.35
\nBid-YTW : 5.40 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PF.B<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n61,276<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 17.68
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.68
\nBid-YTW : 5.43 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.N<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n52,800<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 13.92
\nEvaluated at bid price : 13.92
\nBid-YTW : 5.21 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide Spread Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nQuote Data and Yield Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BNS.PR.I<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\nQuote: 20.31 – 20.84
\nSpot Rate : 0.5300
\nAverage : 0.3255<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 20.31
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.31
\nBid-YTW : 5.22 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

CCS.PR.C<\/td>\nDeemed-Retractible<\/td>\nQuote: 23.24 – 23.93
\nSpot Rate : 0.6900
\nAverage : 0.5192<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 22.97
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.24
\nBid-YTW : 5.41 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

EMA.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\nQuote: 18.62 – 19.00
\nSpot Rate : 0.3800
\nAverage : 0.2699<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 18.62
\nEvaluated at bid price : 18.62
\nBid-YTW : 5.97 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

NA.PR.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\nQuote: 18.75 – 19.08
\nSpot Rate : 0.3300
\nAverage : 0.2224<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 18.75
\nEvaluated at bid price : 18.75
\nBid-YTW : 5.70 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

BMO.PR.Y<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\nQuote: 19.66 – 20.11
\nSpot Rate : 0.4500
\nAverage : 0.3557<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 19.66
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.66
\nBid-YTW : 5.56 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

TD.PF.M<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\nQuote: 24.40 – 24.67
\nSpot Rate : 0.2700
\nAverage : 0.1813<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2050-01-13
\nMaturity Price : 22.98
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.40
\nBid-YTW : 5.21 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The big argument against market timing is chaos theory. But can chaos be mitigated? Half a century ago, the pioneers of chaos theory discovered that the \u201cbutterfly effect\u201d makes long-term prediction impossible. Even the smallest …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}