{"id":49045,"date":"2018-01-22T20:32:00","date_gmt":"2018-01-23T01:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=49045"},"modified":"2025-08-05T20:34:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T00:34:43","slug":"na-pr-e-settles-soft-on-modest-volume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=49045","title":{"rendered":"NA.PR.E Settles Soft on Modest Volume"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>National Bank of Canada <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbc.ca\/en\/about-us\/news\/news-room\/press-releases\/2018\/20180122-National-Bank-Canada-Closing-NVCC-Preferred-Share-Offering.html\">has announced<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p> that it has closed its domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 40 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the \u201cSeries 40 Preferred Shares\u201d). National Bank issued 12 million Series 40 Preferred Shares at a price of $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $300 million.<\/p>\n<p> The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc.<\/p>\n<p> The Series 40 Preferred Shares will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol NA.PR.E.<\/p>\n<p> The Series 40 Preferred Shares were issued under a prospectus supplement dated January 15, 2018 to National Bank&#8217;s short form base shelf prospectus dated November 21, 2016.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>NA.PR.E is a FixedReset, 4.60%+258, NVCC-Compliant, <a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=35984\">announced January 12<\/a>. It will be tracked by HIMIPref&trade; and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex.<\/p>\n<p>The issue traded 357,595 shares today in a range of 24.77-89 before closing at 24.78-80. Vital statistics are:<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<table border=\"1\">\n<tr>\n<td>NA.PR.E<\/td>\n<td>FixedReset<\/td>\n<td>YTW SCENARIO<br \/>\nMaturity Type   : Limit Maturity<br \/>\nMaturity Date\t: 2048-01-22<br \/>\nMaturity Price  : 23.07<br \/>\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.78<br \/>\nBid-YTW : 4.56 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>This issue looks quite expensive to me, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=32354\">Implied Volatility Analysis<\/a>:<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/impVol_NA_180122.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/impVol_NA_180122-300x247.jpg\" alt=\"impvol_na_180122\" width=\"400\" height=\"329\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-36050\" ><\/a><br \/><i>Click for Big<\/i><\/div>\n<p>We see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing the recent <a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=35777\">BPO new issue<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=35965\">BEP.PR.M<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=36027\">CM.PR.S<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure), and\n<li>The extant issues are trading relatively near to, or well above par<\/ul>\n<p>The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.<\/p>\n<p>I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to this outcome. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate.<\/p>\n<p>For the long term, I suggest that any change in the slope of the curve will be a flattening, with a very high degree of confidence. This will imply that the higher-spread issues will outperform the lower-spread issues.<\/p>\n<p>All told, though, I have no hesitation in slapping an &#8216;Expensive&#8217; label on this issue &#8211; according to the Implied Volatility analysis shown above, the theoretical price of the new issue is 23.77, down sharply from the announcement day estimate of 24.01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>National Bank of Canada has announced: that it has closed its domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 40 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the \u201cSeries 40 Preferred Shares\u201d). National Bank &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-issue-comments"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49045"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49046,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49045\/revisions\/49046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}