{"id":50021,"date":"2025-09-09T21:53:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T01:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=50021"},"modified":"2025-09-09T21:53:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T01:53:09","slug":"september-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=50021","title":{"rendered":"September 9, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The annual revision of the US jobs numbers<\/a> came with a surprise:<\/p>\n

The American jobs market has been running in a much lower gear than previously thought, according to a preliminary report released Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The US economy added about 911,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated for the year ending in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report suggests. If this were to hold \u2013 the final annual benchmark revision will be reported in February 2026 \u2013 it would be the largest annual revision to US jobs data on record.<\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s revisions release is the first step in BLS\u2019 annual benchmark review of jobs data, a process that has taken place in some shape or form going back 90 years.
…<\/b>
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911,000 came in on the high end of economists\u2019 estimates and accounts for about a 0.6% share of overall employment. The annual benchmark revisions during the past 10 years had an absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment, BLS data shows.<\/p>\n

If spread out through the year ended in March, the revision would lower the average monthly job gains by nearly 76,000 positions between April 2024 and March 2025. As it stands now, job growth during that period was 146,500 per month.<\/p>\n

If finalized, this downward revision would bring that to about 70,500 per month, BLS data shows.
…<\/b>
Economists said Tuesday that the massive revision was probably attributable in part to the pandemic throwing out of whack the so-called birth-death model, a longstanding statistical tool that\u2019s used to measure business and job creation.<\/p>\n

Prior to Tuesday\u2019s release, economists predicted that a large downward revision was likely due to three primary factors: weaker-than-inferred job creation at new firms; sampling errors resulting from declining survey response rates; and, adjustments for asylum-seekers and other undocumented workers.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I haven’t seen any political reaction to this; perhaps because it’s too much of a hot potato!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices<\/strong>
Values are provisional and are finalized monthly<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Index<\/td>\nMean
Current
Yield
(at bid)<\/td>\n		Median
YTW<\/td>\n		Median
Average
Trading
Value<\/td>\n		Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)<\/td>\n		Issues<\/td>\nDay’s Perf.<\/td>\nIndex Value<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ratchet<\/td>\n6.69 %<\/td>\n7.12 %<\/td>\n41,510<\/td>\n13.33<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0000 %<\/td>\n2,459.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedFloater<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.1251 %<\/td>\n4,668.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Floater<\/td>\n6.51 %<\/td>\n6.90 %<\/td>\n54,384<\/td>\n12.57<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n-0.1251 %<\/td>\n2,690.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OpRet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.1985 %<\/td>\n3,646.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SplitShare<\/td>\n4.80 %<\/td>\n4.58 %<\/td>\n57,360<\/td>\n3.41<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0.1985 %<\/td>\n4,354.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-Bearing<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.1985 %<\/td>\n3,397.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Premium<\/td>\n5.48 %<\/td>\n2.00 %<\/td>\n69,689<\/td>\n0.08<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.2383 %<\/td>\n3,080.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Discount<\/td>\n5.56 %<\/td>\n5.68 %<\/td>\n45,269<\/td>\n14.32<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n-0.2979 %<\/td>\n3,377.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Disc<\/td>\n5.90 %<\/td>\n6.03 %<\/td>\n117,377<\/td>\n13.54<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n0.0697 %<\/td>\n3,039.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Insurance Straight<\/td>\n5.47 %<\/td>\n5.43 %<\/td>\n54,796<\/td>\n14.70<\/td>\n18<\/td>\n-0.2397 %<\/td>\n3,308.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FloatingReset<\/td>\n5.06 %<\/td>\n4.28 %<\/td>\n42,364<\/td>\n0.14<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0396 %<\/td>\n3,812.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Prem<\/td>\n5.65 %<\/td>\n5.04 %<\/td>\n121,218<\/td>\n2.42<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n0.1615 %<\/td>\n2,631.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Bank Non<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0697 %<\/td>\n3,106.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n5.25 %<\/td>\n5.46 %<\/td>\n67,993<\/td>\n14.49<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n-0.1747 %<\/td>\n3,050.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Performance Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\nNotes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.D<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-10.89 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 20.05
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.05
\nBid-YTW : 6.17 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IFC.PR.I<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n-6.12 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 22.59
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.97 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.Q<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n-4.00 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 23.01
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PR.R<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n-2.73 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 19.60
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.60
\nBid-YTW : 6.44 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.E<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-2.51 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.94
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.18
\nBid-YTW : 5.56 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CCS.PR.C<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n-2.03 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.91
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.15
\nBid-YTW : 5.65 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.F<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n1.01 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.05
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.05
\nBid-YTW : 5.39 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTS.PR.G<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.31 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 22.99
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.02
\nBid-YTW : 5.32 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLF.PR.D<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n2.42 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.28
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.55
\nBid-YTW : 5.16 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volume Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nShares
Traded<\/td>\n		Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PF.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n103,800<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-10-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.04
\nBid-YTW : 4.60 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.I<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n84,900<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-12-01
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.10
\nBid-YTW : 3.19 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RY.PR.M<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n70,275<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-11-24
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.03
\nBid-YTW : 3.04 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PR.T<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n38,100<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 22.14
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.63
\nBid-YTW : 6.13 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FFH.PR.G<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n37,400<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-10-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.13
\nBid-YTW : 4.75 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PF.H<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n35,100<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-12-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.34
\nBid-YTW : 3.69 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide Spread Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’<\/a> and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nQuote Data and Yield Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.D<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 20.05 – 22.90
\nSpot Rate : 2.8500
\nAverage : 1.8035<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 20.05
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.05
\nBid-YTW : 6.17 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

IFC.PR.I<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\nQuote: 23.00 – 24.69
\nSpot Rate : 1.6900
\nAverage : 1.0678<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 22.59
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.97 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

CU.PR.E<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 22.18 – 23.50
\nSpot Rate : 1.3200
\nAverage : 0.9472<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.94
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.18
\nBid-YTW : 5.56 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

PWF.PF.A<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 20.60 – 21.50
\nSpot Rate : 0.9000
\nAverage : 0.5974<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 20.60
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.60
\nBid-YTW : 5.54 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

MFC.PR.Q<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\nQuote: 24.00 – 25.00
\nSpot Rate : 1.0000
\nAverage : 0.7264<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 23.01
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

CCS.PR.C<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\nQuote: 22.15 – 23.25
\nSpot Rate : 1.1000
\nAverage : 0.8392<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-09-09
\nMaturity Price : 21.91
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.15
\nBid-YTW : 5.65 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The annual revision of the US jobs numbers came with a surprise: The American jobs market has been running in a much lower gear than previously thought, according to a preliminary report released Tuesday. The …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50021"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50022,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50021\/revisions\/50022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}