{"id":50246,"date":"2025-10-10T21:44:02","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T01:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=50246"},"modified":"2025-10-10T21:47:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T01:47:23","slug":"october-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=50246","title":{"rendered":"October 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jobs, jobs, jobs<\/a>!<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s economy posted a surprise 60,400 net job gains in September, almost entirely reversing the losses of the previous month, data showed on Friday, but was not enough to bring down its multiyear high unemployment rate.<\/p>\n

The jobless rate was at 7.1 per cent, same as the prior month when the rate hit a nine-year high outside of the pandemic years.
…<\/b>
The employment increase in September was completely led by full-time work and it increased in 10 out of 16 industry groups, Statscan said.
…<\/b>
The unemployment rate among youth or those in the age bracket of 15 to 24 years edged up to 14.7 per cent in September, the highest rate in 15 years. The youths represent around 14 per cent of the total labour force in Canada.<\/p>\n

Also, the proportion of people working in jobs which are unrelated to their qualification as well as immigrants who were overqualified for their jobs scaled up, reflecting tough labour market conditions, the statistics agency said.
…<\/b>
The average hourly wage of permanent employees \u2013 a gauge closely tracked by the Bank of Canada to ascertain inflationary trends – grew by 3.6 per cent in September on a yearly basis to $37.87, same percentage increase as last month.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So, the market reacted<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Here, in detail, is how implied probabilities of future interest rate moves stood in swaps markets after the jobs report. The current overnight rate is 2.50 per cent. While the bank moves in quarter-point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/a>
Pre-announcement<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>
Post-announcement<\/div>\n

It is interesting to see that the changes are hawkish in the near term and dovish in the longer term, with the projected terminal rate declining from 2.23% to 2.18%.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, The Stable Genius re-ignited the trade war with China<\/a>:<\/p>\n

President Donald Trump said Friday he would impose a 100% tariff on China \u201cover and above any Tariff they are currently paying\u201d effective November 1 \u2013 massively escalating his trade war amid a heated dispute over export controls on rare earths.<\/p>\n

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote that China had \u201ctaken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago,\u201d he wrote. \u201cIt is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump said he would impose the new tariff November 1 \u201cor sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China.\u201d<\/p>\n

Earlier in the day, Trump had blasted Chinese leader Xi Jinping on social media over China\u2019s ramped-up efforts to impose export controls on critical rare earths, threatening economic retaliation and saying he no longer sees any reason to meet with Xi during a scheduled visit to the region later this month. At the time, Trump also threatened economic penalties against China, warning, \u201cDependent on what China says about the hostile \u2018order\u2019 that they have just put out, I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cFor every Element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two,\u201d he added.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

… and markets reacted to that<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 sank 2.7% and the S&P\/TSX Composite Index dropped 1.4% in their worst day since April. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 1.9%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 3.6%.<\/p>\n

Stocks had been heading for a slight gain in the morning, until Trump took to his social media platform and said he\u2019s considering \u201ca massive increase of tariffs\u201d on Chinese imports.
…<\/b>
The S&P\/TSX composite index ended down 414.09 points at 29,850.89, its lowest closing level since September 26. For the week, the index was down 2%.<\/p>\n

The TSX has advanced 20.7% since the start of the year and posted a record closing high as recently as Monday.<\/p>\n

The high-flying TSX technology sector dropped 4.3%, with shares of e-commerce company Shopify Inc dropping 8%.<\/p>\n

The TSX energy sector was down 3.3%. Some of Friday\u2019s strongest action was in the oil market, where the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude sank 4.2% to US$58.90. It fell as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. An end to the war could remove worries about disruptions to oil supplies, which had kept crude\u2019s price higher than it otherwise would have been. Trump\u2019s tariff threat could gum up global trade and lead the economy to burn less fuel.
…<\/b>
In the absence of official data, investors looked to the U.S. Federal Reserve for clues regarding near-term interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that while private employment data continues to show labor market weakness, the central bank should act with caution when reducing the Fed funds target rate as it evaluates the economy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem echoed that sentiment, saying that another rate cut could be warranted as insurance against a weakening labor market. \u201cI believe that we have to tread with caution\u201d before monetary policy becomes too accommodative, he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices<\/strong>
Values are provisional and are finalized monthly<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Index<\/td>\nMean
Current
Yield
(at bid)<\/td>\n		Median
YTW<\/td>\n		Median
Average
Trading
Value<\/td>\n		Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)<\/td>\n		Issues<\/td>\nDay’s Perf.<\/td>\nIndex Value<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ratchet<\/td>\n6.65 %<\/td>\n7.10 %<\/td>\n25,504<\/td>\n13.39<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0000 %<\/td>\n2,428.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedFloater<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.9355 %<\/td>\n4,581.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Floater<\/td>\n6.30 %<\/td>\n6.58 %<\/td>\n56,728<\/td>\n13.10<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n-0.9355 %<\/td>\n2,640.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OpRet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.3382 %<\/td>\n3,656.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SplitShare<\/td>\n4.77 %<\/td>\n4.39 %<\/td>\n67,914<\/td>\n3.33<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n-0.3382 %<\/td>\n4,366.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-Bearing<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.3382 %<\/td>\n3,407.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Premium<\/td>\n5.52 %<\/td>\n4.93 %<\/td>\n91,582<\/td>\n6.99<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n-0.2769 %<\/td>\n3,085.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Discount<\/td>\n5.61 %<\/td>\n5.63 %<\/td>\n45,603<\/td>\n14.47<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n0.5440 %<\/td>\n3,360.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Disc<\/td>\n6.00 %<\/td>\n6.02 %<\/td>\n102,907<\/td>\n13.66<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n-0.1945 %<\/td>\n3,043.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Insurance Straight<\/td>\n5.48 %<\/td>\n5.54 %<\/td>\n55,907<\/td>\n14.58<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n0.1421 %<\/td>\n3,317.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FloatingReset<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.1945 %<\/td>\n3,620.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Prem<\/td>\n5.64 %<\/td>\n4.88 %<\/td>\n131,602<\/td>\n2.79<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n-0.2739 %<\/td>\n2,628.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Bank Non<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.1945 %<\/td>\n3,110.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n5.22 %<\/td>\n5.40 %<\/td>\n51,747<\/td>\n14.52<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n-0.1505 %<\/td>\n3,070.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Performance Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\nNotes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTS.PR.F<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-6.86 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.75
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.L<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-4.14 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.42
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.68
\nBid-YTW : 5.88 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PR.M<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-3.22 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 19.85
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.85
\nBid-YTW : 6.04 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PVS.PR.L<\/td>\nSplitShare<\/td>\n-2.31 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Hard Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2030-06-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.40
\nBid-YTW : 5.27 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.F<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n-1.97 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 17.95
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.95
\nBid-YTW : 5.73 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.H<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n-1.77 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.44
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.70
\nBid-YTW : 5.62 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.P<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n-1.73 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 17.80
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.80
\nBid-YTW : 6.07 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PR.F<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n-1.33 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 20.85
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.85
\nBid-YTW : 6.47 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
POW.PR.A<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-1.21 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 24.21
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.50
\nBid-YTW : 5.73 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PR.B<\/td>\nFloater<\/td>\n-1.19 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 12.50
\nEvaluated at bid price : 12.50
\nBid-YTW : 6.65 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.Y<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n-1.11 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 20.45
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.45
\nBid-YTW : 5.55 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.A<\/td>\nFloater<\/td>\n-1.06 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 14.05
\nEvaluated at bid price : 14.05
\nBid-YTW : 5.96 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IFC.PR.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n1.40 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.45
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.80
\nBid-YTW : 5.21 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.S<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n2.60 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.50
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.76
\nBid-YTW : 5.51 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.R<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n3.22 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.57
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.83
\nBid-YTW : 5.53 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLF.PR.C<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n3.28 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.48
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.74
\nBid-YTW : 5.14 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CU.PR.G<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n15.33 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 20.76
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.76
\nBid-YTW : 5.50 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PF.A<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n38.14 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 20.44
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.44
\nBid-YTW : 5.52 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volume Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nShares
Traded<\/td>\n		Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.G<\/td>\nPerpetual-Premium<\/td>\n46,395<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-11-09
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.18
\nBid-YTW : -6.85 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.H<\/td>\nPerpetual-Premium<\/td>\n37,200<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2025-11-09
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.03
\nBid-YTW : 0.26 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.Z<\/td>\nPerpetual-Premium<\/td>\n36,772<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2034-09-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.45
\nBid-YTW : 5.52 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CIU.PR.A<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n20,300<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 20.52
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.52
\nBid-YTW : 5.69 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PR.P<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n19,450<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.24
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.52
\nBid-YTW : 6.36 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TD.PF.I<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n16,880<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2027-10-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.90
\nBid-YTW : 4.31 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
There were 4 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide Spread Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’<\/a> and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nQuote Data and Yield Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MFC.PR.F<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\nQuote: 17.95 – 19.90
\nSpot Rate : 1.9500
\nAverage : 1.0880<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 17.95
\nEvaluated at bid price : 17.95
\nBid-YTW : 5.73 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

FTS.PR.F<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 22.00 – 23.68
\nSpot Rate : 1.6800
\nAverage : 0.9812<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.75
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

PWF.PR.L<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 21.68 – 23.10
\nSpot Rate : 1.4200
\nAverage : 0.9361<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 21.42
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.68
\nBid-YTW : 5.88 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

BN.PR.M<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 19.85 – 21.05
\nSpot Rate : 1.2000
\nAverage : 0.8732<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 19.85
\nEvaluated at bid price : 19.85
\nBid-YTW : 6.04 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

BN.PF.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\nQuote: 25.60 – 26.60
\nSpot Rate : 1.0000
\nAverage : 0.6908<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2055-10-10
\nMaturity Price : 23.58
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.60
\nBid-YTW : 5.67 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

PVS.PR.L<\/td>\nSplitShare<\/td>\nQuote: 25.40 – 26.39
\nSpot Rate : 0.9900
\nAverage : 0.7142<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Hard Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2030-06-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.40
\nBid-YTW : 5.27 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jobs, jobs, jobs! Canada\u2019s economy posted a surprise 60,400 net job gains in September, almost entirely reversing the losses of the previous month, data showed on Friday, but was not enough to bring down its …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50246"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50251,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50246\/revisions\/50251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}