{"id":5059,"date":"2009-01-21T16:19:07","date_gmt":"2009-01-21T20:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.prefblog.com\/?p=5059"},"modified":"2009-01-21T16:19:07","modified_gmt":"2009-01-21T20:19:07","slug":"canadian-budget-baseline-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=5059","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Budget Baseline Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Parliamentary Budget Officer<\/a> has released a Pre-Budget Economic and Fiscal Briefing<\/a> and it makes for news that’s as bad as may be expected:<\/p>\n

Before accounting for any new fiscal measures to be introduced in Budget 2009, this more sluggish economic outlook suggests a further deterioration in the budget balance relative to PBO\u2019s November EFA.
\no The updated economic outlook based on the PBO survey average results in a status quo budgetary deficit reaching $13 billion in 2009-10, equivalent to 0.8% of GDP.
\no On a cumulative basis, status quo budget deficits amount to $46 billion over 2009-10 to 2013-14.
\no PBO currently judges that the balance of risks to its fiscal outlook is tilted to the downside, reflecting the possibility of weaker-than-expected economic performance and relatively optimistic assumptions about corporate profits.
\no The January survey\u2019s low forecasts are used to illustrate potential downside economic risks and imply significantly larger deficits on a status quo basis, averaging $21 billion annually over the next five fiscal years.
\n
…<\/b>
Further, rough estimates indicate that the Government has a structural surplus of about $6 billion \u2014 though more work needs to be undertaken in this area. Thus, any permanent fiscal actions (e.g., permanent tax cuts or permanent spending increases) exceeding $6 billion annually would likely result in structural deficits, limiting the Government\u2019s ability to manage future cost pressures due to, for example, population ageing<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The total effect of the recession over the period of 2009-14, according to the average scenario (Table 2 of the report) is $45.9-billion – and this is before any special spending; the deficit arises from automatic stabilizers and revenue decreases. It will take many, many years of Spend-Every-Penny’s rosy scenarios before that money is paid back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has released a Pre-Budget Economic and Fiscal Briefing and it makes for news that’s as bad as may be expected: Before accounting for any new fiscal measures to be introduced in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting-external-papers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}