{"id":52046,"date":"2026-06-17T21:54:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=52046"},"modified":"2026-06-17T21:54:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:54:11","slug":"june-17-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/?p=52046","title":{"rendered":"June 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The FOMC stood pat<\/a> today:<\/p>\n

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 \u2013 0 vote:<\/p>\n

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1\/2 to 3-3\/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.<\/p>\n

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.<\/p>\n

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“The committee will deliver price stability”? That sounds more like a Republican talking point than a central bank pronouncement … well, we’ll see. And there’s a lot less economic substance in this release than I like to see. Nevertheless, it carried unanimously, as was so eagerly trumpetted in the first line, which surprises me. Maybe Trump-toadyism has taken over. Maybe everybody just wants to be nice to Warsh at his first meeting. I certainly don’t know.<\/p>\n

But the opacity continued into the press conference<\/a>:<\/p>\n

But as determined as Warsh said the Fed was to modernizing and fixing the economy\u2019s problems, Warsh was noticeably less willing to provide detailed answers about the Fed\u2019s decision-making process or thoughts on broader economic topics than Powell. Warsh often referred back to the Fed\u2019s brief statement about the economy rather than expounding upon it.<\/p>\n

In an answer that Warsh acknowledged was purposefully \u201ccurt,\u201d he said: \u201cI\u2019ve got nothing more to say than the statement itself.\u201d In another, he noted, \u201cI can\u2019t do much better than the committee just did. So let me restate it.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Fed’s economic projections<\/a> still include the dot-plot:<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n

Ben Werschkul comments<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve’s latest “dot plot,” outlining policymakers’ interest rate projections, revealed a sharp shift in central bankers’ expectations.<\/p>\n

Not only are rate cuts almost surely off the table for the rest of the year, but there is also a sharply higher chance of a hike before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n

Nine policymakers who participated in the exercise projected at least one hike, with six even suggesting multiple hikes could be in the offing.
…<\/b>
The median forecast for interest rates at the end of 2027 remains unchanged at the current rate of 3.50% to 3.75%.<\/p>\n

The projection is a sharp change from the outlook released in March, which had maintained a median forecast for one rate cut in 2026 and two in total by the end of 2027.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The equity markets responded poorly<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Major North American stock indexes immediately turned lower after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as investors interpreted the accompanying details as being hawkish.<\/p>\n

Short-term bonds yields spiked, as did the U.S. dollar against major currencies. The Canadian dollar traded at its lowest since 2025, at just above the 71 cents US level, down about a third of a cent for the session.<\/p>\n

The U.S. two-year bond yield rocketed 9 basis points higher, a large one-day move. Short-term \u200bU.S. interest-rate \u200cfutures are now pricing in a \u2060bigger \u200bchance that the Federal Reserve will deliver \u200ba \u200crate hike by September than opt to \u200ckeep \u200brates where they \u200care.<\/p>\n

The \u200bshift in market-based \u2060rate-path expectations \u2060comes after the \u200bFed said it would leave the policy rate in its \u2060current 3.50%-3.75% range at this time, but a \u2060near-majority of policymakers \u200bpenciled a \u2060rate hike by the \u200cend of 2026 \u200bto combat higher inflation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices<\/strong>
Values are provisional and are finalized monthly<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Index<\/td>\nMean
Current
Yield
(at bid)<\/td>\n		Median
YTW<\/td>\n		Median
Average
Trading
Value<\/td>\n		Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)<\/td>\n		Issues<\/td>\nDay’s Perf.<\/td>\nIndex Value<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ratchet<\/td>\n5.62 %<\/td>\n6.01 %<\/td>\n24,221<\/td>\n14.82<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0000 %<\/td>\n2,611.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedFloater<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1.4220 %<\/td>\n4,902.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Floater<\/td>\n5.55 %<\/td>\n5.65 %<\/td>\n40,972<\/td>\n14.50<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n1.4220 %<\/td>\n2,825.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OpRet<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.1742 %<\/td>\n3,630.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SplitShare<\/td>\n4.80 %<\/td>\n4.50 %<\/td>\n50,660<\/td>\n2.75<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n-0.1742 %<\/td>\n4,335.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Interest-Bearing<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n-0.1742 %<\/td>\n3,382.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Premium<\/td>\n5.70 %<\/td>\n5.74 %<\/td>\n73,099<\/td>\n14.10<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n-0.0851 %<\/td>\n3,064.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Perpetual-Discount<\/td>\n5.58 %<\/td>\n5.66 %<\/td>\n40,906<\/td>\n14.34<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n0.2125 %<\/td>\n3,378.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Disc<\/td>\n5.63 %<\/td>\n5.86 %<\/td>\n125,180<\/td>\n13.92<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n0.0159 %<\/td>\n3,303.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Insurance Straight<\/td>\n5.49 %<\/td>\n5.50 %<\/td>\n47,154<\/td>\n14.63<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n-0.2160 %<\/td>\n3,280.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FloatingReset<\/td>\n4.64 %<\/td>\n4.65 %<\/td>\n21,926<\/td>\n16.20<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n0.0000 %<\/td>\n4,093.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Prem<\/td>\n5.94 %<\/td>\n4.57 %<\/td>\n90,437<\/td>\n2.35<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n0.1744 %<\/td>\n2,647.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Bank Non<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0.00 %<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0.0159 %<\/td>\n3,377.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n5.15 %<\/td>\n5.27 %<\/td>\n69,882<\/td>\n14.60<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n0.1649 %<\/td>\n3,206.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Performance Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nChange<\/td>\nNotes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.H<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n-3.94 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 20.99
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.99
\nBid-YTW : 5.80 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTS.PR.F<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n-1.08 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 22.71
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.36 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PR.H<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n-1.01 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 23.19
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.50
\nBid-YTW : 5.69 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PF.E<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n1.07 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 22.64
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.55
\nBid-YTW : 6.00 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PF.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n1.17 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2028-09-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.90
\nBid-YTW : 4.98 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWO.PR.T<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\n1.78 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 22.66
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.90
\nBid-YTW : 5.63 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.Z<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\n3.27 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 22.74
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.03
\nBid-YTW : 5.66 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.A<\/td>\nFloater<\/td>\n3.32 %<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 14.64
\nEvaluated at bid price : 14.64
\nBid-YTW : 5.39 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volume Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nShares
Traded<\/td>\n		Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BN.PF.I<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n43,700<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2027-03-31
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.27
\nBid-YTW : 3.75 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.P<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n37,500<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 20.56
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.56
\nBid-YTW : 5.73 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IFC.PR.C<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\n35,000<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2026-09-30
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.03
\nBid-YTW : 2.59 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ENB.PR.P<\/td>\nFixedReset Disc<\/td>\n26,700<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 23.03
\nEvaluated at bid price : 24.03
\nBid-YTW : 5.86 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PWF.PR.T<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\n25,100<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 23.48
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.08
\nBid-YTW : 5.44 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
POW.PR.I<\/td>\nPerpetual-Premium<\/td>\n15,100<\/td>\nYTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 24.61
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.01
\nBid-YTW : 5.74 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
There were 3 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide Spread Highlights<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’<\/a> and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Issue<\/td>\nIndex<\/td>\nQuote Data and Yield Notes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IFC.PR.A<\/td>\nFixedReset Ins Non<\/td>\nQuote: 22.00 – 23.34
\nSpot Rate : 1.3400
\nAverage : 1.0033<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 21.60
\nEvaluated at bid price : 22.00
\nBid-YTW : 5.44 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

GWO.PR.H<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\nQuote: 20.99 – 21.78
\nSpot Rate : 0.7900
\nAverage : 0.4762<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 20.99
\nEvaluated at bid price : 20.99
\nBid-YTW : 5.80 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

BN.PF.M<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\nQuote: 25.75 – 26.62
\nSpot Rate : 0.8700
\nAverage : 0.7404<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2031-01-01
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.75
\nBid-YTW : 4.88 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

ENB.PF.K<\/td>\nFixedReset Prem<\/td>\nQuote: 25.46 – 25.85
\nSpot Rate : 0.3900
\nAverage : 0.2664<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Call
\nMaturity Date\t: 2028-03-01
\nMaturity Price : 25.00
\nEvaluated at bid price : 25.46
\nBid-YTW : 5.28 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

CU.PR.J<\/td>\nPerpetual-Discount<\/td>\nQuote: 21.66 – 22.18
\nSpot Rate : 0.5200
\nAverage : 0.4139<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 21.66
\nEvaluated at bid price : 21.66
\nBid-YTW : 5.54 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

IFC.PR.K<\/td>\nInsurance Straight<\/td>\nQuote: 23.85 – 24.90
\nSpot Rate : 1.0500
\nAverage : 0.9491<\/p>\n

YTW SCENARIO
\nMaturity Type : Limit Maturity
\nMaturity Date\t: 2056-06-17
\nMaturity Price : 23.40
\nEvaluated at bid price : 23.85
\nBid-YTW : 5.50 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The FOMC stood pat today: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 \u2013 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-action"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52046"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52046\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52048,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52046\/revisions\/52048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prefblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}