July 28, 2014

A story on regulatory secrecy alerted me to the fact that Joe Oliver is no more honest than his predecessor:

When Finance Minister Joe Oliver went to Europe in June, he boasted about how the country’s financial system has been ranked the world’s soundest by the World Economic Forum for six years running.

The links supporting this assertion are from the Ministry of Finance, 2014-6-23:

◾For the sixth year in a row, the World Economic Forum rated Canada’s banking system as the world’s soundest.

and from the Ministry of Finance, 2013-9-5:

“I am very pleased to see that the World Economic Forum has ranked Canada’s banking system as the soundest in the world for the sixth consecutive year,” said Minister Flaherty.

These liars rely on the fact that nobody actually reads the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report. The full report for 2013-14 makes no bones about its methodology:

The World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey
remains the largest poll of its kind, capturing the insight of more than 13,000 executives into critical drivers of their respective countries’ development. This scale could not be achieved without the tremendous efforts of the Forum’s network of over 160 Partner Institutes in carrying out the Survey at a national level. It gathers valuable information on a broad range of variables for which data sources are scarce or nonexistent. For this reason, and for the integrity of our publication and related research, sampling and comparability across the globe remain an essential and ongoing endeavor of The Global Competitiveness and Benchmarking Network.

It’s a poll – as I have pointed out before. Responses by Canadian interviewees regarding Canada are compared to responses from interviewees from other countries about those countries. In Canada, the poll is administered by The Conference Board of Canada, an organization I consider to be little more than a joke, but that’s beside the point. The point is, it’s a poll. There is no straight-up comparison of Canada’s financial system’s strength vs. the strength of any other country’s financial system. It’s a measure of confidence only, and the blind led the blind into the abyss, trumpeted by sleaze-bag politicians and abetted by shoddy journalism.

However, the Globe and Mail article does illuminate the current government’s desire to politicize everything:

The argument against Mr. Jenkins’s and Mr. Thiessen’s recommendation is a philosophical one: in a democracy, major decisions should be made by elected representatives. “I believe in elected people,” the late Jim Flaherty, Canada’s finance minister during the financial crisis, told me when I asked him in October 2013 whether he thought Canada needed a more rigorous regulatory regime. “I don’t think bureaucrats, and God love them, should run the world.”

DBRS commented on RONA, proud issuer of RON.PR.A:

Going forward, DBRS believes that stabilization of RONA’s earnings profile will remain challenging in the near term, particularly as the Company will continue to face intense competition in an uncertain demand and housing market, highlighted by significant regional disparity. RONA’s typically high inventory balance and working capital position at the end of Q1 traditionally unwinds through the course of the year. DBRS believes that despite the recent decline in balance sheet debt, RONA’s credit risk profile will remain pressured until it displays sustainable growth in organic operating income and cash flow. DBRS will continue to monitor the Company’s operating performance through the disproportionately significant spring and summer periods (Q2 and Q3 F2014), which should provide a greater indication of the impact of RONA’s restructuring and repositioning efforts, key to whether the rating will stabilize in the current BB (high) rating category. Should RONA achieve stabilization of same-store sales and operating income, as well as a modest improvement in key credit metrics through the end of Q3 F2014, the rating outlook could stabilize. However, should RONA’s credit risk profile continue to display deterioration in same-store sales, operating income and key credit metrics through the end of Q3 F2014 (i.e., lease-adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR over 4.0x and lease-adjusted EBITDA coverage below 4.5x), a further downgrade to BB and Pfd-4 could result.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 6bp, FixedResets gaining 7bp and DeemedRetractibles off 4bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 3.07 % 3.06 % 19,709 19.52 1 0.0820 % 2,587.0
FixedFloater 4.17 % 3.40 % 28,470 18.63 1 -0.0876 % 4,163.9
Floater 2.86 % 2.94 % 45,991 19.87 4 0.2592 % 2,775.6
OpRet 4.02 % -2.68 % 78,392 0.08 1 -0.0784 % 2,720.0
SplitShare 4.25 % 3.92 % 52,168 4.00 6 -0.0110 % 3,120.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0784 % 2,487.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.52 % -2.81 % 81,732 0.09 17 -0.0785 % 2,430.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.23 % 5.07 % 108,433 15.23 20 -0.0638 % 2,582.9
FixedReset 4.40 % 3.62 % 194,808 8.58 77 0.0749 % 2,557.5
Deemed-Retractible 4.98 % -0.37 % 119,542 0.09 43 -0.0352 % 2,553.9
FloatingReset 2.68 % 2.21 % 91,772 3.84 6 -0.1053 % 2,511.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 17.74
Evaluated at bid price : 17.74
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.66
Bid-YTW : 2.65 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 48,764 Nesbitt crossed 41,000 at 24.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.66
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 46,500 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 43,351 TD crossed 34,800 at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.48
Bid-YTW : 3.13 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 31,450 National bought 10,000 from Nesbitt at 25.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.28
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 23,825 TD crossed 15,600 at 24.97.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 24.92
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 23,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 0.89 %
There were 18 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.66 – 22.98
Spot Rate : 1.3200
Average : 0.9812

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-07-28
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %

RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.53 – 25.86
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2039

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-27
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : -0.98 %

W.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.09 – 25.42
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2179

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.09
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %

GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.56 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3551

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : -15.02 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 23.29 – 23.75
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3764

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.29
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %

ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.35 – 25.55
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1244

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : -1.08 %

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