March 28, 2018

The Bank of Canada has published a useful analytical note by Rohan Arora, Nadeem Merali, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc titled Did Canadian Corporate Bond Funds Increase their Exposures to Risks?:

Canadian fixed-income mutual funds have grown rapidly over the past 10 years—15 per cent annually compared with 2.6 per cent for equity funds. These investment vehicles direct a growing share of funds from savers to borrowers and now are a large component of the Canadian shadow banking sector (Young Chang et al. 2016). This note focuses on open-ended mutual funds with large holdings of Canadian corporate bonds, a subset of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds.

Canadian corporate bond mutual funds (CCBFs) are more vulnerable than other funds because of the liquidity mismatch between their assets and liabilities: the funds offer daily redemption to investors yet they invest in relatively less-liquid assets (corporate bonds). This mismatch raises concerns that CCBFs may face large redemption requests during periods of stress (Goldstein, Jiang and Ng 2017). Indeed, in 2017, the Financial Stability Board issued policy recommendations to reduce this vulnerability (FSB 2017).

In this note, we show that CCBFs have more than doubled in number and size since 2007. We also find that CCBFs have increased their exposure to interest rate risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. These results suggest an increase in the likelihood of large investor redemptions with higher potential impact on Canadian fixed-income markets.

At the same time, CCBFs still hold, on average, enough cash and liquid assets to meet redemption requests equivalent to the worst outflows observed since 2007. Overall, we assess that the vulnerability of CCBFs for the Canadian financial system appears to be rising—which warrants close monitoring—but remains low.

Arora (forthcoming) analyzes how Canadian mutual fund performance influences redemptions by investors, while Arora and Ouellet Leblanc (forthcoming) document how CCBFs meet redemption requests. Together, these papers lay the foundation to build stress tests quantifying the likelihood and potential impact of CCBFs’ asset sales on the financial system.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.46%, equivalent to 7.10% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little over 3.85%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 325bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 320bp reported March 21.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6464 % 2,987.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6464 % 5,481.3
Floater 3.34 % 3.52 % 107,150 18.48 4 -0.6464 % 3,158.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0628 % 3,158.9
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.35 % 60,032 3.24 5 -0.0628 % 3,772.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0628 % 2,943.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 2.25 % 78,390 0.09 11 0.2635 % 2,847.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.37 % 5.46 % 86,213 14.65 23 0.6677 % 2,933.4
FixedReset 4.30 % 4.67 % 173,182 5.82 104 0.2360 % 2,508.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % 5.60 % 95,439 5.71 28 0.8605 % 2,928.8
FloatingReset 2.96 % 3.17 % 34,344 3.63 10 0.0133 % 2,756.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 17.01
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.54
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.28
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.34
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 21.38
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 21.01
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.09
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.46
Bid-YTW : 6.70 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.32
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 7.47 %
GWO.PR.T Deemed-Retractible 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.39
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 7.42 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.28
Bid-YTW : 7.33 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 3.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.84
Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 3.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 22.99
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 3.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.77
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 102,320 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
W.PR.K FixedReset 69,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 61,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.09
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 53,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 21.92
Evaluated at bid price : 22.48
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 48,482 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 46,737 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-03-28
Maturity Price : 23.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.13
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
There were 25 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
W.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 25.51 – 26.10
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.3809

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.35 – 22.00
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.4563

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.81 – 26.10
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1743

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : -18.35 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 20.40 – 20.75
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2386

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.95 %

W.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 25.60 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2809

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.01 – 22.34
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2464

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %

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