The Bank of Canada has announced:
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1¼ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1½ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Global economic activity remains broadly on track with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast. Recent data point to some upside to the outlook for the US economy. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty about trade policies is dampening global business investment and stresses are developing in some emerging market economies. Global oil prices have been higher than assumed in April, in part reflecting geopolitical developments.
Inflation in Canada has been close to the 2 per cent target and will likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April, largely because of recent increases in gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to potential. As usual, the Bank will look through the transitory impact of fluctuations in gasoline prices.
In Canada, economic data since the April MPR have, on balance, supported the Bank’s outlook for growth around 2 per cent in the first half of 2018. Activity in the first quarter appears to have been a little stronger than projected. Exports of goods were more robust than forecast, and data on imports of machinery and equipment suggest continued recovery in investment. Housing resale activity has remained soft into the second quarter, as the housing market continues to adjust to new mortgage guidelines and higher borrowing rates. Going forward, solid labour income growth supports the expectation that housing activity will pick up and consumption will continue to contribute importantly to growth in 2018.
Overall, developments since April further reinforce Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target. Governing Council will take a gradual approach to policy adjustments, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank will continue to assess the economy’s sensitivity to interest rate movements and the evolution of economic capacity.
Barry McKenna of the Globe & Mail comments:
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz generally does not broadcast future rate moves with explicit forward guidance. But on Wednesday, it’s was what Mr. Poloz and members of the bank’s governing council didn’t say that shifted expectations. The statement accompanying the rate decision dropped two key phrases that have been a staple of the bank’s communication for months. Gone is the reference to being “cautious” about future policy changes. Also absent is the qualifier that higher rates will be needed “over time.”
Instead, the bank is offering new, more assertive language about where rates are headed now that the economy is running near full capacity.
“Developments since April further reinforce the governing council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target,” the statement said. “Governing council will take a gradual approach to policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”
The odds of a July rate hike is now just shy of 80 per cent, up from slightly more than 50 per cent on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg’s interest rate probability tracker.
Global investors decided Italy was no longer a problem:
Global stocks staged a recovery on Wednesday, buoyed by optimism that Italy may avoid a potentially damaging general election.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.67 percent, lifted by a rebound in both Europe and the United States.
The recovery was partly driven by news that Italy’s two anti-establishment parties were renewing efforts to form a government, rather than force the country to the polls for the second time this year.
The prospect that no government would be formed, leading to elections that could be a referendum on Italy’s euro membership, had sent short-term Italian bond yields up by the most in nearly 26 years.
The loonie did well:
The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart by the most in more than two months on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold but boosted expectations for a hike at its next policy meeting in July.
…
At 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 1.1 percent higher at C$1.2876 to the greenback, or 77.66 U.S. cents, its biggest gain since March 21.The currency, which on Tuesday touched a more than two-month low at C$1.3047, notched its strongest since May 24 at C$1.2837.
… and the five-year Canada yield spiked up to 2.13%.
So it was a good day for preferreds.
PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.48%, equivalent to 7.12% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 3.85%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 330bp, a whopping increase from the 310bp reported May 23.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.6330 % | 2,991.4 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.6330 % | 5,489.1 |
| Floater | 3.34 % | 3.58 % | 71,377 | 18.29 | 4 | -0.6330 % | 3,163.4 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3959 % | 3,179.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.62 % | 4.55 % | 80,372 | 5.04 | 5 | -0.3959 % | 3,796.7 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3959 % | 2,962.3 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.61 % | -6.18 % | 63,219 | 0.09 | 10 | 0.0669 % | 2,875.5 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.41 % | 5.48 % | 64,821 | 14.64 | 24 | 0.1185 % | 2,945.9 |
| FixedReset | 4.30 % | 4.69 % | 156,912 | 5.60 | 104 | 0.5844 % | 2,537.0 |
| Deemed-Retractible | 5.14 % | 5.69 % | 74,576 | 5.53 | 27 | 0.0468 % | 2,947.4 |
| FloatingReset | 3.21 % | 3.76 % | 35,177 | 3.49 | 8 | 0.5746 % | 2,788.6 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | -1.62 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.26 Bid-YTW : 5.44 % |
| BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 20.53 Evaluated at bid price : 20.53 Bid-YTW : 5.19 % |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 7.52 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-09-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.84 Bid-YTW : 4.48 % |
| RY.PR.Z | FixedReset | 1.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.06 Evaluated at bid price : 23.62 Bid-YTW : 4.59 % |
| TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 22.98 Evaluated at bid price : 23.85 Bid-YTW : 5.14 % |
| TD.PF.B | FixedReset | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.07 Evaluated at bid price : 23.58 Bid-YTW : 4.65 % |
| MFC.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-03-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.29 Bid-YTW : 4.85 % |
| BMO.PR.W | FixedReset | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 22.75 Evaluated at bid price : 23.17 Bid-YTW : 4.67 % |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.79 Bid-YTW : 5.88 % |
| TRP.PR.J | FixedReset | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.11 Bid-YTW : 3.94 % |
| SLF.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.09 Bid-YTW : 4.85 % |
| BNS.PR.D | FloatingReset | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.83 Bid-YTW : 3.76 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset | 1.38 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.59 Bid-YTW : 4.63 % |
| MFC.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.38 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-12-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.26 Bid-YTW : 4.76 % |
| RY.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.42 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.63 Bid-YTW : 4.63 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.52 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.35 Bid-YTW : 7.48 % |
| IAG.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.87 Bid-YTW : 5.18 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.64 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 5.99 % |
| TRP.PR.D | FixedReset | 1.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 22.08 Evaluated at bid price : 22.73 Bid-YTW : 4.97 % |
| BMO.PR.S | FixedReset | 1.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.19 Evaluated at bid price : 23.75 Bid-YTW : 4.69 % |
| TRP.PR.K | FixedReset | 1.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.78 Bid-YTW : 4.07 % |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | 2.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.68 Bid-YTW : 6.06 % |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset | 2.34 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.10 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 4.76 % |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset | 3.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 21.97 Evaluated at bid price : 22.56 Bid-YTW : 4.98 % |
| TRP.PR.H | FloatingReset | 3.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 17.01 Evaluated at bid price : 17.01 Bid-YTW : 3.81 % |
| HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | 4.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 17.45 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| IFC.PR.G | FixedReset | 225,389 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.82 Bid-YTW : 5.07 % |
| MFC.PR.R | FixedReset | 82,154 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-03-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.77 Bid-YTW : 3.92 % |
| TD.PF.I | FixedReset | 66,867 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.22 Bid-YTW : 4.40 % |
| TRP.PR.K | FixedReset | 41,566 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2022-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.78 Bid-YTW : 4.07 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset | 38,724 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.59 Bid-YTW : 4.63 % |
| PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | 31,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2048-05-30 Maturity Price : 22.29 Evaluated at bid price : 22.56 Bid-YTW : 5.54 % |
| There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| TRP.PR.A | FixedReset | Quote: 19.91 – 20.50 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4098 YTW SCENARIO |
| HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | Quote: 24.26 – 24.80 Spot Rate : 0.5400 Average : 0.3895 YTW SCENARIO |
| TRP.PR.E | FixedReset | Quote: 22.56 – 23.18 Spot Rate : 0.6200 Average : 0.4757 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.R | FixedReset | Quote: 25.77 – 26.08 Spot Rate : 0.3100 Average : 0.1931 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.K | FixedReset | Quote: 22.68 – 23.10 Spot Rate : 0.4200 Average : 0.3053 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.J | FloatingReset | Quote: 19.37 – 19.70 Spot Rate : 0.3300 Average : 0.2271 YTW SCENARIO |
to keep inflation near target
I guess we will have to wait and see what impacts the new 10% tariff on some food and other stuffs come into play July 1.
From mustard to toffee (and many more of such but also including some shaving and hair products) tariffs be passed on to consumers. I suspect it will show up in mid 2019. Big uptick in the CPI in Q2/18 is possible