November 16, 2022

TXPR closed at 546.09, down 1.02% on the day after setting a new 52-week low. Volume today was 1.87-million, fourth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 10.91, up 0.18% on the day after setting a new 52-week low. Volume was 135,330, third-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 9.14, unchanged on the day after setting a new 52-week low. Volume was 197,240, near the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields were off a touch to 3.30% today.

Poor equity performance was attributed to weak retailers:

Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower on Wednesday as a grim outlook from Target spurred fresh concerns about retailers heading into the crucial holiday season, while semiconductor shares slid after Micron’s supply cut. The TSX also ended lower, pressured by declines in the energy and materials sectors, as investors took in the latest Canadian inflation data.

Shares of Target Corp tumbled 13.1% after the big-box retailer forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales.

Retail stocks slumped broadly, including declines of over 8% in shares of Macy’s Inc and Best Buy Co Inc and a 7% drop for Foot Locker. The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector shed 1.5%.

Micron Technology shares dropped 6.7% after the company said it would reduce memory chip supply and make more cuts to its capital spending plan. The S&P 500 information technology sector fell 1.4% and the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index sank 4.3%.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an early and outspoken inflation hawk, said he is now “more comfortable” with smaller rate increases going forward after data showed price increases slowing.

Target’s number is fascinating because:

Target stores are getting looted, and it’s taking a huge bite out of profits.

The discount retailer told reporters on a call to discuss its third quarter earnings results that inventory shrinkage — or the disappearance of merchandise — has reduced its gross profit margin by $400 million so far in 2022 compared to 2021.

“At Target, year-to-date, incremental shortage has already reduced our gross margin by more than $400 million vs. last year,” Target CFO Michael Fiddelke said on the earnings call, “and we expect it will reduce our gross margin by more than $600 million for the full year.”

Fiddelke detailed how there are “a handful of things that can drive shrink in our business and theft is certainly a key driver. We know we’re not alone across retail in seeing a trend that I think has gotten increasingly worse over the last 12 to 18 months. So we’re taking the right actions in our stores to help curb that trend where we can, but that becomes an increasing headwind on our business and we know the business of others.”

A Target spokesperson told Yahoo Finance via email after the call the shrinkage was mostly specifically attributed to “organized retail crime.”

Canadian inflation was steady:

Canada’s inflation rate held steady in October at elevated levels, snapping a three-month streak of deceleration that was heavily influenced by rising costs at gas stations.

The consumer price index rose 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, matching the inflation rate in September, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.3 per cent in October on an annual basis, slowing from 5.4 per cent in September.

Food prices rose 10.1 per cent in October on an annual basis, down slightly from 10.3 per cent in September. Still, grocery costs are rising near multi-decade highs, and the increases are hefty for some products. Over the past year, pasta prices are up 45 per cent, lettuce by 30 per cent and soup by 18 per cent.

UK inflation was more exciting:

Britain’s cost-of-living crisis deepened in October, as consumer prices surged 11.1 percent from a year earlier, the highest in more than 40 years, granting no relief to households struggling to keep up with large increases in the price of food, heating and gas.

The increase, which was higher than expected, came after the annual inflation rate had reached 10.1 percent in September. On a month-to-month basis, the Consumer Prices Index rose 2 percent from September to October.

Wages in Britain increased 5.7 percent in the third quarter, their fastest pace in 20 years, as people re-entered the work force following the end of Britain’s pandemic lockdowns. But inflation is rising so fast that it is outstripping those gains, leaving households struggling to keep up.

And some of the employment gains mask an underlying precariousness, with many people re-entering the labor market as self-employed workers. When adjusted for rising prices, wages overall fell by 2.7 percent in September.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.75%, equivalent to 8.78% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 5.66%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed to 310bp from the 340bp reported November 9. However, I suspect that the “Weighted Average Yield to Maturity” reported by BMO on their ZLC page is not kept current; anything to withhold information from the masses is good business for the banks! I’ve sent an inquiry; we’ll just see what kind of answer I get! So far, I’ve simply gotten the run-around.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0413 % 2,326.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0413 % 4,462.6
Floater 8.60 % 8.76 % 45,173 10.54 2 -0.0413 % 2,571.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5562 % 3,324.1
SplitShare 5.12 % 7.37 % 41,809 2.83 8 -0.5562 % 3,969.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5562 % 3,097.3
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1808 % 2,577.0
Perpetual-Discount 6.61 % 6.75 % 79,271 12.84 34 0.1808 % 2,810.1
FixedReset Disc 5.52 % 7.69 % 88,738 12.00 63 -0.3184 % 2,183.4
Insurance Straight 6.51 % 6.74 % 85,167 12.82 18 0.1495 % 2,764.0
FloatingReset 9.24 % 9.85 % 39,452 9.58 2 -0.3525 % 2,524.3
FixedReset Prem 6.73 % 6.58 % 416,174 4.21 1 0.0000 % 2,342.6
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3184 % 2,231.9
FixedReset Ins Non 5.44 % 7.79 % 44,380 11.97 14 0.4157 % 2,310.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc -5.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.51
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 7.66 %
PVS.PR.J SplitShare -2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
PVS.PR.G SplitShare -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2026-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 7.73 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 14.03
Evaluated at bid price : 14.03
Bid-YTW : 8.98 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.22
Evaluated at bid price : 20.22
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 7.77 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 16.84
Evaluated at bid price : 16.84
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.78
Evaluated at bid price : 17.78
Bid-YTW : 7.78 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 14.06
Evaluated at bid price : 14.06
Bid-YTW : 9.02 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 8.22 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
GWO.PR.M Insurance Straight -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.62
Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.95
Evaluated at bid price : 18.95
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
SLF.PR.D Insurance Straight 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.99
Evaluated at bid price : 17.99
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.30
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 7.84 %
GWO.PR.L Insurance Straight 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 12.64
Evaluated at bid price : 12.64
Bid-YTW : 7.94 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 7.67 %
BIP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 5.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non 96,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 7.38 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc 80,875 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.65
Evaluated at bid price : 17.65
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
IFC.PR.E Insurance Straight 53,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 53,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.72
Evaluated at bid price : 17.72
Bid-YTW : 7.81 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Prem 46,385 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2027-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 42,893 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
There were 31 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.75 – 23.50
Spot Rate : 2.7500
Average : 1.5653

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.21 – 19.40
Spot Rate : 4.1900
Average : 3.5732

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 15.21
Evaluated at bid price : 15.21
Bid-YTW : 9.01 %

CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.00 – 22.10
Spot Rate : 2.1000
Average : 1.6604

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.51 – 19.55
Spot Rate : 1.0400
Average : 0.6863

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.51
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 7.66 %

NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 20.40 – 21.20
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.5444

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %

PVS.PR.H SplitShare Quote: 22.51 – 24.25
Spot Rate : 1.7400
Average : 1.5062

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2027-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 7.77 %

One Response to “November 16, 2022”

  1. […] spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has widened to 340bp from the 310bp reported November 16. However, I suspect that the “Weighted Average Yield to Maturity” reported by BMO on […]

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