January 24, 2023

Here’s a few more interesting papers on the inflation risk premium, for those who have been clamouring for them. At some point I hope to highlight them properly, but for now I just want to store the links, because finding them was a pain.

Update, 2023-1-25: I was interested in the claim by Kupfer in the second link that:

For the United Kingdom, a publication by the Debt Management Office reveals that ILBs ‘have led to a significant reduction in the cost of funding’ (UK Debt Management Office, 2001, p. 39)

… so I looked up the reference:

Index-linked gilts have proved a valuable addition to the Government’s portfolio. In addition to increasing the diversity of the portfolio, index-linked gilts have led to a significant reduction in the cost of funding. This has partly been due to the reduction of inflation risk but more importantly because of the fact that market expectations of inflation have exceeded the inflation outturn for much of the last 20 years

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1805 % 2,553.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1805 % 4,897.6
Floater 8.50 % 8.63 % 67,342 10.72 2 1.1805 % 2,822.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6812 % 3,393.9
SplitShare 4.95 % 6.59 % 60,478 2.82 7 0.6812 % 4,053.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6812 % 3,162.4
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1770 % 2,884.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.91 % 5.97 % 92,840 13.93 35 0.1770 % 3,144.9
FixedReset Disc 5.34 % 7.01 % 97,357 12.68 62 -0.7713 % 2,269.4
Insurance Straight 5.81 % 5.95 % 97,474 13.96 20 0.0494 % 3,089.1
FloatingReset 9.65 % 9.94 % 40,791 9.56 2 -0.4390 % 2,577.0
FixedReset Prem 6.59 % 6.28 % 174,064 4.09 2 -0.1579 % 2,384.7
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.7713 % 2,319.8
FixedReset Ins Non 5.41 % 6.82 % 52,671 12.83 14 -0.5055 % 2,385.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -5.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 7.37 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -4.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -3.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.43
Evaluated at bid price : 18.43
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.39
Evaluated at bid price : 17.39
Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.04
Evaluated at bid price : 18.04
Bid-YTW : 6.66 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Disc -2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.77
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.41
Evaluated at bid price : 18.41
Bid-YTW : 7.00 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 11.58
Evaluated at bid price : 11.58
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.10
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 7.31 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.92
Evaluated at bid price : 18.92
Bid-YTW : 6.87 %
CM.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.81
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
BN.PF.H FixedReset Disc -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 6.77 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 13.31
Evaluated at bid price : 13.31
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
BN.PF.F FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.39
Evaluated at bid price : 17.39
Bid-YTW : 8.20 %
CM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.37
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.82
Evaluated at bid price : 17.82
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 24.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 13.44
Evaluated at bid price : 13.44
Bid-YTW : 7.46 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
IAF.PR.B Insurance Straight 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.78
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 23.61
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
BN.PR.K Floater 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 13.27
Evaluated at bid price : 13.27
Bid-YTW : 8.65 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 3.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 13.52
Evaluated at bid price : 13.52
Bid-YTW : 7.53 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 8.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.I FixedReset Prem 159,546 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 86,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 54,881 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.61
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
BN.PR.K Floater 52,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 13.27
Evaluated at bid price : 13.27
Bid-YTW : 8.65 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 47,153 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 6.90 %
BN.PF.H FixedReset Disc 34,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 6.77 %
There were 13 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PVS.PR.J SplitShare Quote: 22.61 – 23.80
Spot Rate : 1.1900
Average : 0.7415

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.61
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %

CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.50 – 18.55
Spot Rate : 1.0500
Average : 0.6329

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 7.37 %

BN.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 19.42 – 20.80
Spot Rate : 1.3800
Average : 0.9879

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.42
Evaluated at bid price : 19.42
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %

BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.82 – 21.95
Spot Rate : 2.1300
Average : 1.8212

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 19.82
Evaluated at bid price : 19.82
Bid-YTW : 7.48 %

MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight Quote: 20.67 – 21.48
Spot Rate : 0.8100
Average : 0.5503

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 20.67
Evaluated at bid price : 20.67
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 21.50 – 22.30
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.5434

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-01-24
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %

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