February 14, 2023

US inflation was complicated:

The price index was up 6.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier. That was a slight slowing from 6.5 percent in December, and is down notably from a peak of about 9 percent last summer. But compared with the previous month, prices climbed 0.4 percent after stripping out groceries and fuel — a rapid pace of growth that matched the increase in December.

The overall report shows that while the Federal Reserve has been receiving positive news on inflation, price increases are no longer relentlessly accelerating, the way they did for much of 2021 and the first half of 2022, it could be a long and bumpy road back to the 2 percent annual inflation gains that used to be normal.

Much of the inflation slowdown in recent months has come from a moderation in price increases for goods and commodities. After stripping those out, services inflation — which includes health care, restaurant meals, pedicures and other non-goods purchases — has remained unusually rapid and has shown little sign of slowing down.

That trend continued in January, with services prices excluding energy continuing to increase rapidly, partly owing to the jump in rental and other housing costs. A measure that Mr. Powell watches closely — one that tracks services and strips out housing in addition to food and gas — eased very slightly last month.

Monthly growth in food prices accelerated slightly in January, reversing a gradual decline seen in recent months, as the price of eggs, cookies and citrus fruits all rose.

Food prices grew 0.5 over the month, ticking up slightly compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in December. A price index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased in January, as did another for cereals and bakery products. An overall index for fruits and vegetables fell from the previous month, while an index for dairy products was unchanged.

The price of eggs was up 8.5 percent from the previous month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, as an outbreak of avian influenza around the United States continues to cause egg prices to surge. However, other measures, like a market report compiled by the Agriculture Department, show that the price of eggs has been dropping sharply in recent months. The average price of large eggs dropped from more than $5 a carton earlier this year to less than $3 in February, the department said.

And the New York Fed released their Underlying Inflation Gauge:

  • The UIG “full data set” measure for January is currently estimated at 5.1%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The “prices-only” measure for January is currently estimated at 5.1%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
  • The twelve-month change in the January CPI was +6.4%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
    • -For January 2023, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.2% to 5.1% range, a similar range to December, with a 0.3 percentage point decrease of both its lower and upper bound.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0743 % 2,587.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0743 % 4,962.1
Floater 8.71 % 8.90 % 61,128 10.41 2 0.0743 % 2,859.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0119 % 3,432.3
SplitShare 4.90 % 6.46 % 58,029 2.77 7 -0.0119 % 4,098.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0119 % 3,198.1
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2249 % 2,861.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.96 % 6.02 % 70,738 13.83 37 -0.2249 % 3,120.7
FixedReset Disc 5.30 % 7.31 % 88,434 12.28 59 0.2584 % 2,300.4
Insurance Straight 5.83 % 5.97 % 92,753 13.89 20 -0.2022 % 3,083.0
FloatingReset 9.72 % 10.24 % 35,613 9.27 2 0.1877 % 2,599.7
FixedReset Prem 6.35 % 6.37 % 198,741 4.03 2 1.1769 % 2,391.4
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2584 % 2,351.5
FixedReset Ins Non 5.25 % 7.04 % 49,324 12.48 14 0.7094 % 2,460.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.10
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 20.83
Evaluated at bid price : 20.83
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.39
Evaluated at bid price : 19.39
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
BN.PF.B FixedReset Disc -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 17.68
Evaluated at bid price : 17.68
Bid-YTW : 8.39 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.16
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 18.09
Evaluated at bid price : 18.09
Bid-YTW : 7.65 %
PVS.PR.H SplitShare 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2027-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 6.85 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 11.85
Evaluated at bid price : 11.85
Bid-YTW : 8.72 %
GWO.PR.T Insurance Straight 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.67
Evaluated at bid price : 21.93
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 18.23
Evaluated at bid price : 18.23
Bid-YTW : 7.47 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.53
Evaluated at bid price : 21.53
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.73
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 13.52
Evaluated at bid price : 13.52
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 13.50
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 7.84 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 12.24
Evaluated at bid price : 12.24
Bid-YTW : 8.69 %
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Prem 2.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
BN.PR.X FixedReset Disc 2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 7.44 %
BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc 3.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 7.31 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 189,498 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc 104,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 92,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 7.49 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 71,610 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 18.31
Evaluated at bid price : 18.31
Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 49,750 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 13.52
Evaluated at bid price : 13.52
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 49,020 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.64 – 15.64
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.5822

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 14.64
Evaluated at bid price : 14.64
Bid-YTW : 8.67 %

TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.02 – 23.85
Spot Rate : 0.8300
Average : 0.5511

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 22.28
Evaluated at bid price : 23.02
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 19.39 – 20.05
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4831

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 19.39
Evaluated at bid price : 19.39
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %

MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight Quote: 20.55 – 21.75
Spot Rate : 1.2000
Average : 1.0402

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %

BN.PR.R FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.17 – 16.10
Spot Rate : 0.9300
Average : 0.7759

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 15.17
Evaluated at bid price : 15.17
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 18.09 – 18.80
Spot Rate : 0.7100
Average : 0.5737

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-02-14
Maturity Price : 18.09
Evaluated at bid price : 18.09
Bid-YTW : 7.65 %

2 Responses to “February 14, 2023”

  1. adp4646 says:

    Manulife Financial Corporation announces Conversion Privilege of Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 11.

    This was posted on their web site on January 31, 2023.

    https://www.manulife.com/en/news/manulife-financial-corporation-announces-conversion-privilege-of-non-cumulative-rate-reset-class-1-shares-series-11-2023.html

    It will be interesting to read James’ recommendation on conversion for this one.

  2. […] Thanks to Assiduous Reader adp4646 for bringing this to my attention. […]

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