August 25, 2008

Freddie Mac had a gushing review on Bloomberg today:

Freddie Mac rose 17 percent in New York trading after a $2 billion sale of short-term debt stoked confidence the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company can still attract investors.

Freddie Mac sold $1 billion of three-month notes at a yield of 2.58 percent, the company said today. That translates to about 90 basis points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries and 23 basis points less than the three-month London interbank offered rate. The spreads from last week’s sale were 61 basis points over Treasuries and 32 basis points below Libor, according to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

The company also sold $1 billion of six-month debt at a yield of 2.858 percent, a spread of about 92 basis points above Treasuries and 25.5 basis points below Libor; compared with 80 basis points and 32 basis points last week. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Well … it’s nice that they were able to finance through LIBOR, but let’s not get carried away! Let’s see how well they can finance the next month’s needs:

Fannie has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while Freddie has $103 billion, according to figures provided by the companies and data compiled by Bloomberg.

… on the bond market, rather than the Money-Market, before breaking out the champagne. Unless my trusty calculator has let me down, $2-billion is less than half their daily quota until September 30 … each.

Fortunately for oenophiles, there is an excuse for some bubbly. PerpetualDiscounts were up 21bp today, bringing the total return index back to slightly above its June 30 levels … OK now it’s time to start working on June (a really, really lousy month).

The perpetualDiscount index now has a weighted average mean yield to maturity of 6.11%, equivalent to 8.55% interest at the standard 1.4x equivalency factor. Long corporates now yield in the 6.15-6.20% range, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 235bp.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 4.61% 4.37% 56,503 16.42 7 +0.1918% 1,110.7
Floater 4.04% 4.08% 43,581 17.20 3 +0.1628% 914.5
Op. Retract 4.97% 4.08% 110,301 2.50 17 +0.1482% 1,051.7
Split-Share 5.35% 5.92% 54,270 4.36 14 +0.1608% 1,039.9
Interest Bearing 6.22% 6.66% 46,417 5.23 2 +0.2035% 1,126.3
Perpetual-Premium 6.18% 6.19% 64,697 2.22 1 -0.1579% 989.7
Perpetual-Discount 6.05% 6.11% 189,896 13.55 70 +0.2129% 879.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -1.6741% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.65% based on a bid of 19.97 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.K PerpetualDiscount -1.3303% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.15% based on a bid of 21.51 and a limitMaturity.
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -1.0700% Asset coverage of just under 2.4:1 as of August 15, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.02% based on a bid of 10.17 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-01 at 10.00.
RY.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +1.0259% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.06% based on a bid of 18.71 and a limitMaturity.
NA.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +1.1640% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.12% based on a bid of 19.99 and a limitMaturity.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare +1.1715% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 as of August 14, according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.61% based on a bid of 9.50 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00.
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +1.1866% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.04% based on a bid of 18.76 and a limitMaturity.
FBS.PR.B SplitShare +1.5609% Asset coverage of just under 1.5:1 as of August 21 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.91% based on a bid of 9.76 and a hardMaturity 2011-12-15 at 10.00.
CM.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +1.5694% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.61% based on a bid of 20.71 and a limitMaturity.
IAG.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +1.7382% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.26% based on a bid of 18.73 and a limitMaturity.
ELF.PR.F PerpetualDiscount +1.7803% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.73% based on a bid of 20.01 and a limitMaturity.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +2.7724% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.01% based on a bid of 21.13 and a limitMaturity.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
HSB.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 54,790 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 20.90. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.23% based on a bid of 20.85 and a limitMaturity.
PWF.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 52,400 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 20.55. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.11% based on a bid of 20.51 and a limitMaturity.
RY.PR.D PerpetualDiscount 44,795 TD bought 11,700 from anonymous at 18.75. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.04% based on a bid of 18.76 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.O OpRet 43,590 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.40% based on a bid of 22.85 and optionCertainty 2013-6-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (6.07% to 2012-3-30), BAM.PR.I (6.02% to 2013-12-30) and BAM.PR.J (6.41% to 2018-3-30).
GWO.PR.G PerpetualDiscount 34,040 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.10% based on a bid of 21.66 and a limitMaturity.

There were fifteen other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Update: Dealbreaker passes on a rumour that Fed Pressures Treasury Not To Wipe Out Fannie Mae Preferreds:

The Federal Reserve has been quietly pressuring the Treasury Department not to adopt a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that would wipe out the value of their preferred shares, according to a source familiar with the matter. The Fed fears that any move that hurt the preferred could worsen the crisis in regional banks that is already under way.

The situation is complicated, however, by the large share of preferred stock held by regional banks, many of which are viewed as possible candidates for failure in these credit crunched times. As the Financial Times reported over the weekened regional banks and US insurers hold the majority of Fannie and Freddie’soutstanding preferred stock. The Fed has begun advocating against wiping out these shares, saying the threat to stability of the banks is greater than the ‘moral hazard’ argument, a source familiar with the matter says.

As usual, it’s not clear what is meant by “wiping out”.

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