The New York Fed released the August Survey of Consumer Expectations:
August Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Down at Medium-Term, Remain Unchanged at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons; Unemployment
Expectations Deteriorate
- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Gas price growth expectations increased again in August, rising by 1.7 ppt to 4.6 percent.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 ppt to 44.4 percent, its highest reading since April 2020. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 ppt to 45.4 percent.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4 ppt to 13.8 percent, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months increased by 0.9 ppt to 19.5 percent, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4 percent.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -1.2400 % | 2,759.0 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -1.2400 % | 5,195.7 |
| Floater | 5.24 % | 5.40 % | 31,503 | 14.76 | 3 | -1.2400 % | 2,994.3 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2586 % | 3,623.1 |
| SplitShare | 4.66 % | 4.45 % | 55,730 | 2.55 | 4 | -0.2586 % | 4,326.7 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2586 % | 3,375.9 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.65 % | 5.54 % | 69,626 | 6.40 | 9 | -0.1141 % | 3,071.0 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.53 % | 5.63 % | 39,774 | 14.40 | 21 | 0.2323 % | 3,419.4 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.63 % | 5.98 % | 88,358 | 13.85 | 21 | -1.5752 % | 3,384.1 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.46 % | 5.49 % | 46,806 | 14.58 | 19 | -0.1519 % | 3,293.5 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -1.5752 % | 4,132.0 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.90 % | 4.03 % | 79,166 | 2.06 | 27 | -0.0695 % | 2,677.4 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -1.5752 % | 3,459.2 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.19 % | 4.36 % | 50,909 | 1.91 | 14 | -0.0961 % | 3,291.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | -22.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 8.17 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | -5.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset Ins Non | -4.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.38 Evaluated at bid price : 22.81 Bid-YTW : 5.71 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | -3.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 23.12 Evaluated at bid price : 23.51 Bid-YTW : 6.31 % |
| BN.PR.B | Floater | -3.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 14.50 Evaluated at bid price : 14.50 Bid-YTW : 5.48 % |
| GWO.PR.I | Insurance Straight | -2.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.56 Evaluated at bid price : 20.56 Bid-YTW : 5.49 % |
| GWO.PR.P | Insurance Straight | -1.63 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 23.85 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
| BMO.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | -1.58 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-11-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.73 Bid-YTW : 3.68 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | -1.40 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 21.10 Evaluated at bid price : 21.10 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| BN.PR.K | Floater | -1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 14.70 Evaluated at bid price : 14.70 Bid-YTW : 5.40 % |
| GWO.PR.M | Insurance Straight | 1.84 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2026-10-08 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.46 Bid-YTW : -19.62 % |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.94 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2030-03-20 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.19 Bid-YTW : 4.92 % |
| PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | 3.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.07 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| POW.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 3.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 24.68 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 5.68 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | 4.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.90 Evaluated at bid price : 20.90 Bid-YTW : 5.40 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| BILP.PR.A | FixedReset Prem | 357,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2031-10-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.27 Bid-YTW : 5.46 % |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Ins Non | 55,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2026-10-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.17 Bid-YTW : 4.85 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 49,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| PWF.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 31,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-09-08 Maturity Price : 24.22 Evaluated at bid price : 24.48 Bid-YTW : 5.68 % |
| PVS.PR.H | SplitShare | 14,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2026-10-08 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.03 Bid-YTW : 3.42 % |
| BN.PF.A | FixedReset Prem | 13,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.24 Bid-YTW : 4.88 % |
| There were 3 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.00 – 26.08 Spot Rate : 6.0800 Average : 4.1719 YTW SCENARIO |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 22.81 – 24.02 Spot Rate : 1.2100 Average : 0.7581 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 24.00 – 25.68 Spot Rate : 1.6800 Average : 1.4060 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.51 – 24.40 Spot Rate : 0.8900 Average : 0.6266 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.52 – 22.25 Spot Rate : 0.7300 Average : 0.4717 YTW SCENARIO |
| BMO.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 26.73 – 27.45 Spot Rate : 0.7200 Average : 0.4996 YTW SCENARIO |