October 4, 2011

Shades of ’08!

The cost to protect the debt of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) surged to the highest levels since the weeks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy as concern intensified that Europe’s debt crisis will infect the global banking system.

Contracts on Morgan Stanley, the New York-based owner of the world’s largest retail brokerage, soared 92 basis points to a mid-price of 583 basis points as of 4:30 p.m. in New York, the highest since October 2008, according to London-based data provider CMA. Those on Goldman Sachs increased 65 basis points to a mid-price of 395.

Traders pushed the cost of protecting banks and U.S. companies higher after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble opposed moves to increase the scale of the euro rescue fund, complicating efforts to prevent a Greek default. Swaps on Bank of America Corp. (BAC) jumped to a record and a measure of U.S. corporate credit risk rose to the most since May 2009.

Knock-on effects are everywhere!

Real estate investment trusts that buy U.S. mortgage debt tumbled to the steepest losses since December 2008, on concern that their main source of financing will be roiled by European bank woes.

Mortgage REITs including Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) and American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) dropped as much as 6 percent today, according to a Bloomberg index tracking 33 shares. Losses over the past two days reached as much as 11.1 percent, the biggest fall in almost three years. The shares pared today’s declines to 2.6 percent at 1:50 p.m. in New York.

France and Belgium pledged today to support Dexia SA after the bank’s board met to discuss a possible break-up as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis reduced its ability to obtain funding. While the repurchase-agreement, or repo, market for government- backed mortgage bonds that many REITS rely on for funding is in “good” shape, it may face pressure if European banks need to retrench, American Capital President Gary Kain said.

Moody’s slashed Italy’s rating three notches:

Italy’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s Investors Service for the first time in almost two decades on concern that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government will struggle to reduce the region’s second-largest debt amid chronically weak growth.

Moody’s lowered Italy’s rating three levels to A2 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, the New York-based company said in a statement yesterday. The action comes after Standard & Poor’s downgraded Italy on Sept. 20 for the first time in five years. Italy was last cut by Moody’s in May 1993.

Italy gave final approval last month to a 54 billion-euro ($72 billion) austerity plan aimed at balancing the budget in 2013 that convinced the European Central Bank to buy the nation’s bonds. While the purchases initially brought down bond yields by about 100 basis points, Italy’s borrowing costs remain near record highs because of euro-area debt crisis contagion.

DBRS confirmed ALA.PR.A at Pfd-3:

DBRS has today confirmed the rating on the Medium-Term Notes (MTNs) and Preferred Shares – Cumulative of AltaGas Ltd. (AltaGas or the Company) at BBB and Pfd-3, respectively, both with Stable trends. The confirmation reflects: (1) continuing progress on the Company’s goal to grow and diversify earnings and cash flow while reducing its relative business risk; (2) proactive mitigation of cost overrun risks on its major growth projects; and (3) a prudent financing plan for the 2011 to 2014 growth phase supported by a strong liquidity position. However, DBRS expects some deterioration in the Company’s key credit metrics during the above-noted construction period, with recovery toward the end of the period as expected cash shortfalls are to be primarily funded by debt.

First National, proud issuer of FN.PR.A, has a timing problem:

First National Financial Corporation (TSX: FN) (the “Company” or “FNFC”) today announced its revenue and income before income taxes for the quarter ended September 30, 2011 will both be decreased by approximately $18 million due to realized and unrealized losses on financial instruments. The losses pertain to instruments used for interest rate hedging purposes on mortgages pending securitization. From an economic perspective, to the extent the value of these hedges was unfavourable at September 30, 2011, the value of the hedged mortgages has increased; however, unlike the hedge losses that have been accounted for fully in the third quarter of 2011, the increased value of the mortgages will be recognized as earned over the five- and 10-year terms of the mortgages.

DBRS is unconcerned:

DBRS has today reviewed the announcement by First National Financial Corporation (FNF; rated BBB and Pfd-3 with Stable trends) that third-quarter revenue and pre-tax income would be reduced by approximately $18 million as a result of realized and unrealized losses on financial instruments. There are no rating implications at this time.

While the reduction in pre-tax income is material (it suggests Q3 2011 earnings will be approximately one-third of Q2 2011 earnings), DBRS views the reduction as an accounting timing issue only. Specifically, the value of the vehicle used to hedge interest-rate risk declined (which under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is reported in the current period), offset by an equivalent increase in the value of the underlying mortgage assets (which will be recognized in earnings over the life of the asset).

The unusually large size of the unrealized loss is related to the reduction in long-term interest rates during the quarter. There are no regulatory capital implications because FNF is not regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI).

Thomson Reuters, proud issuer of TRI.PR.B is locking in current rates for a while:

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today said it assigned its ‘A-‘ debt rating to New York-based information solutions provider Thomson Reuters Corp.’s US$350 million 3.95% senior unsecured notes due 2021. We understand that Thomson Reuters will use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its commercial paper program.

It was a very nasty day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 104bp, FixedResets down 59bp and DeemedRetractibles off a mere 53bp. Naturally, the volatility table is quite long today! On a brighter note, one of these entries was a gain! Volume improved from “practically non-existent” to “lousy”.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -3.6051 % 1,960.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -3.6051 % 2,948.5
Floater 3.67 % 3.66 % 163,632 18.18 2 -3.6051 % 2,116.8
OpRet 4.86 % 4.06 % 57,506 1.59 8 -0.3159 % 2,436.2
SplitShare 5.45 % 1.78 % 51,288 0.40 4 -0.7203 % 2,461.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3159 % 2,227.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.72 % 5.54 % 111,962 5.73 13 -0.5010 % 2,103.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.44 % 5.55 % 109,832 14.61 17 -1.0413 % 2,211.7
FixedReset 5.19 % 3.43 % 207,409 2.85 61 -0.5897 % 2,303.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.68 % 227,506 7.90 46 -0.5302 % 2,170.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -5.31 % Not real. The issue traded 7,514 shares in a range of 23.85-19 before closing (or “lasting”?) at 23.01-85, 2×14.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -4.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 14.21
Evaluated at bid price : 14.21
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -3.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 22.13
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -3.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 21.51
Evaluated at bid price : 21.51
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -3.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 20.26
Evaluated at bid price : 20.26
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.34
Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -3.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -2.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 14.40
Evaluated at bid price : 14.40
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 22.47
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset -2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 7.69 %
NA.PR.O FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.26
Bid-YTW : 3.03 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.47
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.29
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.34
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
SLF.PR.F FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 6.94 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.42
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.39
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.86
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-04-26
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PR.B FixedReset 121,775 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 61,987 RBC crossed 40,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 2.72 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 44,479 RBC crossed 40,000 at 25.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 34,978 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.38
Evaluated at bid price : 24.72
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
NA.PR.O FixedReset 34,225 Nesbitt crossed 28,700 at 27.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.26
Bid-YTW : 3.03 %
RY.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 33,460 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.87
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 23.01 – 23.85
Spot Rate : 0.8400
Average : 0.4832

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 50.97 – 51.69
Spot Rate : 0.7200
Average : 0.4876

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.97
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

TD.PR.R Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.29 – 26.76
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.2870

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.29
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.12 – 25.79
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5131

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %

PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.69 – 25.10
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2645

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.39
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.36 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.4980

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-10-04
Maturity Price : 24.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.